Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Postal parcel volume bound for the US fell -81% after exemption ended Aug 29</li>
<li>In many cases, logistics providers unwilling to manage US Customs process</li>
<li>We believe the change undermines US model used by SHEIN, Temu, AliExpress</li>
</ul>


Postal parcel volume bound for the US fell -81% after exemption ended Aug 29
In many cases, logistics providers unwilling to manage US Customs process
We believe the change undermines US model used by SHEIN, Temu, AliExpress


SHEIN / Temu / AliExpress: After US Ended "De Minimis" Exemption, Shipments to US Declined 81%

Tracking developments across tech supply chains, Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tracking developments across tech supply chains

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Walmart's electronic shelf label shipments are growing significantly, reflecting a shift in retail technology.</li><li>Sony aims for all suppliers to use 100% renewable energy by 2031, highlighting a commitment to sustainability.</li><li>The Tech Forum 2025 predicts AI and semiconductor convergence will boost the global market to $2 trillion by 2040.</li></ul>

Walmart's electronic shelf label shipments are growing significantly, reflecting a shift in retail technology.Sony aims for all suppliers to use 100% renewable energy by 2031, highlighting a commitment to sustainability.The Tech Forum 2025 predicts AI and semiconductor convergence will boost the global market to $2 trillion by 2040.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (05-Sep-2025): Walmart sees record growth in electronic shelf

Covering IPOs, Healthcare and Technology Stocks

Andrei Zakharov

<ul>
<li>Klarna Group plc, a Swedish fintech giant and largest BNPL player in European Union, is expected to price $1B+ initial public offering next week.</li>
<li>The company’s amended F-1 puts the initial price range per share at $35 to $37, implying a market cap of ~$13.6B at midpoint, down ~70% from peak valuation of ~$46B. </li>
<li>I think risk/reward profile is favorable given large consumer and merchant scale, expansion into digital retail banking services and potential revenue growth re-acceleration into 2026.</li>
</ul>


Klarna Group plc, a Swedish fintech giant and largest BNPL player in European Union, is expected to price $1B+ initial public offering next week.
The company’s amended F-1 puts the initial price range per share at $35 to $37, implying a market cap of ~$13.6B at midpoint, down ~70% from peak valuation of ~$46B. 
I think risk/reward profile is favorable given large consumer and merchant scale, expansion into digital retail banking services and potential revenue growth re-acceleration into 2026.


Klarna IPO Valuation Update: Risk/Reward Profile Looks Good, Sequoia Stands To Be The Largest Winner

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Couche-Tard has withdrawn its offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-i-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1041:1" rel="noopener">Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP)</a> by unfairly laying the entire blame on the Board.</li>
<li>The Board has made credible progress, but the jury is still out on whether the Board’s plan will generate returns. Shareholders remain sceptical as the shares have underperformed the index.</li>
<li>In theory, the sell-off presents a buying opportunity (My SoTP valuation is JPY 2,376). However, the shares are likely to tread water as there are no near-term catalysts. </li>
</ul>


Couche-Tard has withdrawn its offer for Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP) by unfairly laying the entire blame on the Board.
The Board has made credible progress, but the jury is still out on whether the Board’s plan will generate returns. Shareholders remain sceptical as the shares have underperformed the index.
In theory, the sell-off presents a buying opportunity (My SoTP valuation is JPY 2,376). However, the shares are likely to tread water as there are no near-term catalysts. 


Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP): Dead Money as Couche-Tard Unsurprisingly Walks

Geekplus Technology / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Geek+, AI &amp; robotics warehouse automation provider, has updated its filings and reported weak revenue growth in 2024.</li>
<li>Beijing based AMR solution unicorn’s revenue grew to RMB2,409m in 2024, up ~12% YoY. However, gross margins improved, operating losses narrowed, and cash burn rate decreased.</li>
<li>My IPO valuation analysis coalesces around initial valuation range between $2.3B and $2.7B for Geek+ upcoming offering.</li>
</ul>


Geek+, AI &amp; robotics warehouse automation provider, has updated its filings and reported weak revenue growth in 2024.
Beijing based AMR solution unicorn’s revenue grew to RMB2,409m in 2024, up ~12% YoY. However, gross margins improved, operating losses narrowed, and cash burn rate decreased.
My IPO valuation analysis coalesces around initial valuation range between $2.3B and $2.7B for Geek+ upcoming offering.


Geek+ IPO Valuation Update: Growth Cratered, High U.S. Revenue Exposure

United States

Walmart Inc. operates discount stores, supercenters, and neighborhood markets. The Company offers merchandise such as apparel, house wares, small appliances, electronics, musical instruments, books, home improvement, shoes, jewelry, toddler, games, household essentials, pets, pharmaceutical products, party supplies, and automotive tools. Walmart serves customers worldwide.

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Walmart (WMT US)

SHEIN / Temu / AliExpress: After US Ended "De Minimis" Exemption, Shipments to US Declined 81%

The end of the US "de minimis" loophole has already decimated inbound parcel volume. It will also alter the business models used by SHEIN & Temu,...

Tracking Traffic

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (05-Sep-2025): Walmart sees record growth in electronic shelf

Walmart's electronic shelf label growth, Sony's renewable energy push, and Tech Forum 2025's AI and semiconductor convergence highlight key trends...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Klarna IPO Valuation Update: Risk/Reward Profile Looks Good, Sequoia Stands To Be The Largest Winner

Klarna Group plc is expected to go public next week. In my insight, I discuss IPO valuation, valuation comps and set a 12-month target price for...

Andrei Zakharov

Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP): Dead Money as Couche-Tard Unsurprisingly Walks

In theory, the sell-off presents a buying opportunity (My SoTP valuation is JPY 2,376). However, the shares are likely to tread water as there are...

Arun George

Geek+ IPO Valuation Update: Growth Cratered, High U.S. Revenue Exposure

Geek+ plans to go public in Hong Kong soon. In my insight, I discuss IPO valuation, update my financial model and dive deeper into the comps groups

Andrei Zakharov

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