Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our intermediate-term outlook remains bearish/cautious, and we continue to believe a prolonged downturn is likely, which has been the case since our 4/1/25 Compass. However, shorter-term...</li>
<li>SPX is now 4.5%-5.0% lower than last week (when we said to expect the rally to fizzle), and is testing 5100-5120 support.</li>
<li>5100-5120 has been a key level several times dating back to early 2024, and is a level to trade against to the long side.</li>
</ul>


Our intermediate-term outlook remains bearish/cautious, and we continue to believe a prolonged downturn is likely, which has been the case since our 4/1/25 Compass. However, shorter-term...
SPX is now 4.5%-5.0% lower than last week (when we said to expect the rally to fizzle), and is testing 5100-5120 support.
5100-5120 has been a key level several times dating back to early 2024, and is a level to trade against to the long side.


Upgrading Consumer Staples to Overweight; Short-Term Bottom Potential Here

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The US treasury and dollar markets have proven to be key participants in US trade negotiations.</li>
<li>In a battle of wills, Trump and Xi delay direct negotiations between the world's two largest economies.  Time is on China's side as consumer confidence plummets in US.</li>
<li>Regardless of the results of the trade negotiations, the co-dependent support dynamic for the US equity, dollar, and treasury markets is broken.</li>
</ul>


The US treasury and dollar markets have proven to be key participants in US trade negotiations.
In a battle of wills, Trump and Xi delay direct negotiations between the world's two largest economies.  Time is on China's side as consumer confidence plummets in US.
Regardless of the results of the trade negotiations, the co-dependent support dynamic for the US equity, dollar, and treasury markets is broken.


The Art of the Trade War: FIRST ROUND GOES TO THE MARKETS!

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Liberation Day marks the beginning of the Tariffication of the global trading system.  The complex web of supply chains will be forced to detangle itself to find cost efficiencies.</li>
<li>US companies will try to unpack the many complexities of re-sourcing products to mitigate the inflationary effects of tariffs.  Domestic substitution is not a possibility in the near-term.</li>
<li>US consumers will begin to see inflationary impacts of Tariffication in the coming weeks.  China announced retaliatory measures that would open the door for other countries to do the same.</li>
</ul>


Liberation Day marks the beginning of the Tariffication of the global trading system.  The complex web of supply chains will be forced to detangle itself to find cost efficiencies.
US companies will try to unpack the many complexities of re-sourcing products to mitigate the inflationary effects of tariffs.  Domestic substitution is not a possibility in the near-term.
US consumers will begin to see inflationary impacts of Tariffication in the coming weeks.  China announced retaliatory measures that would open the door for other countries to do the same.


TRUMP'S TARIFFICATION: The Market's Willful Ignorance

Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

<ul><li>Subsidy / In Depth: Why individuals may need to shoulder more of China’s social insurance burden </li><li>Law /Analysis: Why so few people are found not guilty in China</li><li>IPOs /: China may restart allowing unprofitable tech firms to list, sources say</li></ul>

Subsidy / In Depth: Why individuals may need to shoulder more of China’s social insurance burden Law /Analysis: Why so few people are found not guilty in ChinaIPOs /: China may restart allowing unprofitable tech firms to list, sources say

CX Daily: Why Individuals May Need to Shoulder More of China’s Social Insurance Burden 

Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

<ul><li>Technically, the SET Index is expected to move up and down, with the resistance at 1,463/1,474 points and the support at 1,444/1,441 points (50-day EMA).</li><li>Thailand: Prime Minister Paetongtarn has scheduled the first meeting of the Economic Stimulus Policy Committee to discuss short-term, medium-term, and long-term measures, as well as projects from the Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Tourism, Ministry of Commerce, and others, including the Digital Wallet Phase 2 project.</li><li>A survey by BofA of 179 global fund managers, managing a total NAV of USD503bn, conducted between November 1-7, revealed a shift in outlook on global inflation, moving from a downward trend to an upward one over the next 12 months, largely in response to Donald Trump's economic stimulus policies.</li></ul>

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move up and down, with the resistance at 1,463/1,474 points and the support at 1,444/1,441 points (50-day EMA).Thailand: Prime Minister Paetongtarn has scheduled the first meeting of the Economic Stimulus Policy Committee to discuss short-term, medium-term, and long-term measures, as well as projects from the Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Tourism, Ministry of Commerce, and others, including the Digital Wallet Phase 2 project.A survey by BofA of 179 global fund managers, managing a total NAV of USD503bn, conducted between November 1-7, revealed a shift in outlook on global inflation, moving from a downward trend to an upward one over the next 12 months, largely in response to Donald Trump's economic stimulus policies.

First Meeting of the Economic Stimulus Policy Committee

United States

Walmart Inc. operates discount stores, supercenters, and neighborhood markets. The Company offers merchandise such as apparel, house wares, small appliances, electronics, musical instruments, books, home improvement, shoes, jewelry, toddler, games, household essentials, pets, pharmaceutical products, party supplies, and automotive tools. Walmart serves customers worldwide.

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Walmart (WMT US)

Upgrading Consumer Staples to Overweight; Short-Term Bottom Potential Here

Upgrading Consumer Staples $XLP to Overweight; Still Intermediate-Term Bearish/Cautious, But use 5100-5120 on $SPX as a stop loss and a level to...

Vermilion Research

The Art of the Trade War: FIRST ROUND GOES TO THE MARKETS!

US treasury and dollar markets are key participants in US trade negotiations.The co-dependent support dynamic for the equity, dollar, and treasury...

David Mudd

TRUMP'S TARIFFICATION: The Market's Willful Ignorance

US consumers will begin to see inflationary impacts of Trump's Tariffication in the coming weeks. China announced retaliatory measures that would...

David Mudd

First Meeting of the Economic Stimulus Policy Committee

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move up and down, with the resistance at 1,463/1,474 points and the support at 1,444/1,441 points...

Krungthai XSpring

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Upgrading Consumer Staples to Overweight; Short-Term Bottom Potential Here

Upgrading Consumer Staples $XLP to Overweight; Still Intermediate-Term Bearish/Cautious, But use 5100-5120 on $SPX as a stop loss and a level to...

Vermilion Research

The Art of the Trade War: FIRST ROUND GOES TO THE MARKETS!

US treasury and dollar markets are key participants in US trade negotiations.The co-dependent support dynamic for the equity, dollar, and treasury...

David Mudd

TRUMP'S TARIFFICATION: The Market's Willful Ignorance

US consumers will begin to see inflationary impacts of Trump's Tariffication in the coming weeks. China announced retaliatory measures that would...

David Mudd

CX Daily: Why Individuals May Need to Shoulder More of China’s Social Insurance Burden

TOP STORIES Subsidy / In Depth: Why individuals may need to shoulder more of China’s social insurance burden In recent years, many local...

Caixin Global

First Meeting of the Economic Stimulus Policy Committee

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move up and down, with the resistance at 1,463/1,474 points and the support at 1,444/1,441 points...

Krungthai XSpring