Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>On Election Day, the US faces a Dead Heat. Realclearpolitics predicts a Trump victory, The Economist a narrow Harris win (270-268), similar to fivethirtyeight's tally. Turmoil amid slow counting likely.</li>
<li>A Trump win would be good for conventional energy, banks, PE (via deregulation). Lower oil prices and a 60% tariff on imports from China would benefit Japan, India, Korea, Vietnam. </li>
<li>A Harris win would would be good for housing/property, green energy, semiconductors, negative for equities (as corporate &amp; capital-gains taxes rise) and retailers (anti-price-gouging!). Taiwan, Ukraine, UK, France would gain. </li>
</ul>


On Election Day, the US faces a Dead Heat. Realclearpolitics predicts a Trump victory, The Economist a narrow Harris win (270-268), similar to fivethirtyeight's tally. Turmoil amid slow counting likely.
A Trump win would be good for conventional energy, banks, PE (via deregulation). Lower oil prices and a 60% tariff on imports from China would benefit Japan, India, Korea, Vietnam. 
A Harris win would would be good for housing/property, green energy, semiconductors, negative for equities (as corporate &amp; capital-gains taxes rise) and retailers (anti-price-gouging!). Taiwan, Ukraine, UK, France would gain. 


US: Election Is a Dead Heat, but There'll Be Very Different Winners from Each Outcome

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Capital Markets

SHEIN Global Holdings / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>New regulations affecting SHEIN and other retailers are becoming visible on the horizon</li>
<li>We believe coming changes will hit SHEIN and its peers harder than traditional retailers</li>
<li>We look at California's SB 707 law as an illustrative example of new challenges facing SHEIN</li>
</ul>


New regulations affecting SHEIN and other retailers are becoming visible on the horizon
We believe coming changes will hit SHEIN and its peers harder than traditional retailers
We look at California's SB 707 law as an illustrative example of new challenges facing SHEIN


SHEIN IPO in Hong Kong | Pressures from New Rules To Grow, Will Hit Low-Price Platforms Hardest

<ul>
<li>The US Court of International Trade has lifted stay on lawsuit tied to US de minimis imports</li>
<li>The lawsuit seeks to reverse the Trump admin's order to ban low-value de minimis imports</li>
<li>A return of the US$800 de minimis exemption would be welcome news for SHEIN, Temu</li>
</ul>


The US Court of International Trade has lifted stay on lawsuit tied to US de minimis imports
The lawsuit seeks to reverse the Trump admin's order to ban low-value de minimis imports
A return of the US$800 de minimis exemption would be welcome news for SHEIN, Temu


US De Minimis Exemption Back From the Dead?! Court Revives Lawsuit, Orders Briefings in Coming Weeks

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-500-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22886:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)</a>, S&amp;P400 Index and S&amp;P600 Index will be announced after market close on Friday.</li>
<li>The conclusions of the market consultation to change the index weighting methodology for the Select Sector Indices to reduce concentration and avoid reverse turnover should also be announced.</li>
<li>Changes in the index weighting methodology will result in a round-trip trade of US$35bn across the Select Sector indices. The largest turnover is in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/consumer-staples-select-sector-spdr-fund" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27536:1" rel="noopener">XLP</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/technology-select-sector-spdr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27543:1" rel="noopener">XLK</a>.</li>
</ul>


The changes to the S&amp;P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX), S&amp;P400 Index and S&amp;P600 Index will be announced after market close on Friday.
The conclusions of the market consultation to change the index weighting methodology for the Select Sector Indices to reduce concentration and avoid reverse turnover should also be announced.
Changes in the index weighting methodology will result in a round-trip trade of US$35bn across the Select Sector indices. The largest turnover is in the XLP and XLK.


Select Sector Indices - Updated Flows as Round-Trip Trade Hits US$35bn

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>Today, part-way through the day, the Nikkei ran an article saying that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alimentation-couche-tard-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25103:1" rel="noopener">Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD CN)</a> had made a confidential non-binding proposal to buy <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-i-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1041:1" rel="noopener">Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP)</a>. </li>
<li>7&amp;i shares obviously went up (limit up in a hurry, staying there, large size traded limit up at close). </li>
<li>Now things get complicated. 7&amp;i has said they received a non-binding proposal for all the shares. There will be a Special Committee of all Independent Directors. All stakeholders will matter. </li>
</ul>


Today, part-way through the day, the Nikkei ran an article saying that Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD CN) had made a confidential non-binding proposal to buy Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP). 
7&amp;i shares obviously went up (limit up in a hurry, staying there, large size traded limit up at close). 
Now things get complicated. 7&amp;i has said they received a non-binding proposal for all the shares. There will be a Special Committee of all Independent Directors. All stakeholders will matter. 


MEGA M&A! 7&I (3382 JP) Gets Non-Binding Bid from Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD CN)

United States

Walmart Inc. operates discount stores, supercenters, and neighborhood markets. The Company offers merchandise such as apparel, house wares, small appliances, electronics, musical instruments, books, home improvement, shoes, jewelry, toddler, games, household essentials, pets, pharmaceutical products, party supplies, and automotive tools. Walmart serves customers worldwide.

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Walmart (WMT US)

US: Election Is a Dead Heat, but There'll Be Very Different Winners from Each Outcome

RCP predicts a big Trump win, TheEconomist a narrow Harris one. Turnout key for Trump; his win would lower oil prices & hit China, benefitting the...

Prasenjit K. Basu

SHEIN IPO in Hong Kong | Pressures from New Rules To Grow, Will Hit Low-Price Platforms Hardest

In its first day of trading on September 1, SHEIN's shares closed down 0.1% in Hong Kong after initially falling close to 10%. We're re-surfacing a...

Tracking Traffic

US De Minimis Exemption Back From the Dead?! Court Revives Lawsuit, Orders Briefings in Coming Weeks

A US court has quietly allowed a lawsuit against the US Department of Commerce to move forward. If the plaintiff prevails, the US "de minimis"...

Tracking Traffic

Select Sector Indices - Updated Flows as Round-Trip Trade Hits US$35bn

US$300bn tracks the Select Sector Indices. Implementation of proposed changes will set off a US$35bn trade. Apple could be bought by multiple...

Brian Freitas

MEGA M&A! 7&I (3382 JP) Gets Non-Binding Bid from Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD CN)

Canadian CVS owner Alimentation Couche-Tard has lobbed in a bid to buy all the shares of 7&i. This is not as surprising as it looks. It's huge, and...

Travis Lundy

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