Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On the 17th Jan, CC Capital lifted is indicative Offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/insignia-financial-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12349:1" rel="noopener">Insignia Financial (IFL AU)</a> to A$4.60/share from A$4.30/share, a ~50% premium to undisturbed. Limited, non-exclusive due diligence was subsequently provided.</li>
<li>As discussed in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/compose/insight/173397/Insignia%20Financial%20(IFL%20AU):%20Bumpity%20Bumpity.%20Expect%20Bain%20To%20Match%20-%20Or%20Exceed%20-%20CC%20Capital's%20Terms.%20Read%20more:%20https:/skr.ma/RiVBa" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Insignia Financial (IFL AU): Bumpity Bumpity. Expect Bain To Match - Or Exceed - CC Capital's Term</a>, I expected Bain to match CC Capital's terms.</li>
<li>Today Bain did just that, tabling a NBIO at A$4.60/share. Bain was also provided with limited, non-exclusive due diligence.</li>
</ul>


On the 17th Jan, CC Capital lifted is indicative Offer for Insignia Financial (IFL AU) to A$4.60/share from A$4.30/share, a ~50% premium to undisturbed. Limited, non-exclusive due diligence was subsequently provided.
As discussed in Insignia Financial (IFL AU): Bumpity Bumpity. Expect Bain To Match - Or Exceed - CC Capital's Term, I expected Bain to match CC Capital's terms.
Today Bain did just that, tabling a NBIO at A$4.60/share. Bain was also provided with limited, non-exclusive due diligence.


Insignia Financial (IFL AU): Bain Matches CC Capital's Terms. And Also Afforded DD

Greatview Aseptic Packaging / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shandong-xinjufeng-technology-packaging-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36744:1" rel="noopener">Shandong Xinjufeng Technology Packaging (301296 CH)</a>'s (XJF) Offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/greatview-aseptic-packaging" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10802:1" rel="noopener">Greatview Aseptic Packaging (468 HK)</a> (GAPack) turning <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2025/0121/2025012100610.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">unconditional</a> was well telegraphed ahead of yesterday's first close in light of CCASS movements.  </li>
<li>My bet is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-mengniu-dairy-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:354:1" rel="noopener">China Mengniu Dairy Co (2319 HK)</a>, after surprisingly selling below 5%, also tendered.</li>
<li>With 73.51% now in the bag and the Offer extended to the 4th February, what happens now? What are Jeff Bi and/or Gong Hong's options?</li>
</ul>



Shandong Xinjufeng Technology Packaging (301296 CH)'s (XJF) Offer for Greatview Aseptic Packaging (468 HK) (GAPack) turning unconditional was well telegraphed ahead of yesterday's first close in light of CCASS movements.  
My bet is China Mengniu Dairy Co (2319 HK), after surprisingly selling below 5%, also tendered.
With 73.51% now in the bag and the Offer extended to the 4th February, what happens now? What are Jeff Bi and/or Gong Hong's options?


GAPack (468 HK): Now What As XJF's Offer Gets Up

<ul>
<li>Quite a lot of new news to digest - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/greatview-aseptic-packaging" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10802:1" rel="noopener">GAPack (468 HK)</a>'s IFA, not altogether surprisingly, <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2025/0107/2025010700041.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">concluded</a> that shareholders should not accept the Offer - in bold, red caps. </li>
<li>But more surprisingly, is the <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2025/0106/2025010601137.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">disclosure announcement</a> that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-mengniu-dairy-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:354:1" rel="noopener">China Mengniu Dairy Co (2319 HK)</a> has reduced its stake below 5%.  </li>
<li>Evidently Mengniu is keeping its options open to tender - or not - and not have to make public disclosures. Keep an eye out on CCASS movements.</li>
</ul>


Quite a lot of new news to digest - GAPack (468 HK)'s IFA, not altogether surprisingly, concluded that shareholders should not accept the Offer - in bold, red caps. 
But more surprisingly, is the disclosure announcement that China Mengniu Dairy Co (2319 HK) has reduced its stake below 5%.  
Evidently Mengniu is keeping its options open to tender - or not - and not have to make public disclosures. Keep an eye out on CCASS movements.


GAPack (468 HK): IFA Says "Reject". But Mengniu Selling Down

Millennium & Copthorne Hotels Nz / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/millennium-copthorne-hotels-nz-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5040:1" rel="noopener">Millennium &amp; Copthorne Hotels (MCK NZ)</a> (MCK), a Kiwi hotel chain, has announced that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/city-developments-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:57:1" rel="noopener">City Developments (CIT SP)</a>, its major shareholder, has made an Offer for shares not held. </li>
<li>City Dev is offering NZ$2.25/share, a 25% premium to last close. City holds 75.86% and the offer is conditional on a 90% holding, including shares currently held. </li>
<li>Reg approvals include OIA, which should be rubber-stamped. Very illiquid company.</li>
</ul>



Millennium &amp; Copthorne Hotels (MCK NZ) (MCK), a Kiwi hotel chain, has announced that City Developments (CIT SP), its major shareholder, has made an Offer for shares not held. 
City Dev is offering NZ$2.25/share, a 25% premium to last close. City holds 75.86% and the offer is conditional on a 90% holding, including shares currently held. 
Reg approvals include OIA, which should be rubber-stamped. Very illiquid company.


Millennium & Copthorne Hotels (MCK NZ): City Dev's Privatisation Offer

<ul>
<li>I tally 51 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. I've yet to see a solid rationality why they would block.</li>
<li>One new deal was discussed this week: Bain's Tender Offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jamco-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14741:1" rel="noopener">Jamco Corp (7408 JP)</a>. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ho-bee-land-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18298:1" rel="noopener">Ho Bee Land Ltd (HOBEE SP)</a> also countered for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/avjennings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12578:1" rel="noopener">AVJennings Ltd (AVJ AU)</a>.</li>
<li>Key updates/news took place on: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/insignia-financial-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12349:1" rel="noopener">Insignia Financial (IFL AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lifestyle-china-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26090:1" rel="noopener">Lifestyle China (2136 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/advanced-info-service-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:947:1" rel="noopener">Advanced Info Service (ADVANC TB)</a>/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thaicom-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18019:1" rel="noopener">Thaicom Pcl (THCOM TB)</a>.</li>
</ul>


I tally 51 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. I've yet to see a solid rationality why they would block.
One new deal was discussed this week: Bain's Tender Offer for Jamco Corp (7408 JP). Ho Bee Land Ltd (HOBEE SP) also countered for AVJennings Ltd (AVJ AU).
Key updates/news took place on: Insignia Financial (IFL AU), Lifestyle China (2136 HK), and Advanced Info Service (ADVANC TB)/Thaicom Pcl (THCOM TB).


(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Jamco, AVJennings, Insignia Financial, Advanced Info Service/Thaicom

New Zealand

The Warehouse Group Limited operates general merchandise and stationery supply retail stores throughout New Zealand.

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Warehouse Group Limited (WHS NZ)

Insignia Financial (IFL AU): Bain Matches CC Capital's Terms. And Also Afforded DD

Both Offers remain non-binding. IFL has now engaged. (I'd think) Tanarra is supportive here. I still would not be paying through terms. Currently...

David Blennerhassett

GAPack (468 HK): Now What As XJF's Offer Gets Up

This is done and trading around terms. The back-end appears attractive but I have no strong conviction here. Shares could get suspended at the...

David Blennerhassett

GAPack (468 HK): IFA Says "Reject". But Mengniu Selling Down

The first close of XJF's Offer for Greatview Aseptic Packaging (468 HK) is the 21st January, and for a number of investors, the deadline to tender...

David Blennerhassett

Millennium & Copthorne Hotels (MCK NZ): City Dev's Privatisation Offer

This is done. No other Offer will emerge. If small, illiquid arbs are your bent, look to enter here and on any weakness.

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Jamco, AVJennings, Insignia Financial, Advanced Info Service/Thaicom

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

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