New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

Warehouse Group Limited / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Sales fell -1.6% to NZ$1.61b, which was less severe than anticipated by both FB (-2.5%) and VA Consensus (-2.7%).</li><li>Gross margins were pressured by increased promotional activity during the Christmas/New Year period, with a calculated contraction of -210bps to -300bps.</li><li>1H25 Operating Profit guidance of NZ$18-20m was below expectations (FB 1H25 NZ$25m), with FY25 implied guidance of NZ$4-6m.</li></ul>

Sales fell -1.6% to NZ$1.61b, which was less severe than anticipated by both FB (-2.5%) and VA Consensus (-2.7%).Gross margins were pressured by increased promotional activity during the Christmas/New Year period, with a calculated contraction of -210bps to -300bps.1H25 Operating Profit guidance of NZ$18-20m was below expectations (FB 1H25 NZ$25m), with FY25 implied guidance of NZ$4-6m.

The Warehouse Group (WHS) - 1H25 Trading Update - Doing it tough

<ul><li>The Warehouse Group (WHS) reported a less-worse-than-expected 1H25 result.</li><li>While sales declines moderated in 2Q25, heightened promotional activity and aged inventory resulted in c.-170 bps of group gross margin contraction and a -7% decline in gross profit versus 1H24.</li><li>WHS guided to a 2H25 pre-IFRS 16 EBIT (‘Operating Profit’) loss of -NZ$14m, in line with 2H24. We think there is downside to 2H25 guidance, given: (1) heightened promotional pressure and gross margin exit run-rates in 2Q25; and (2) our expectation that domestic consumer spending remains subdued over the next six months. </li></ul>

The Warehouse Group (WHS) reported a less-worse-than-expected 1H25 result.While sales declines moderated in 2Q25, heightened promotional activity and aged inventory resulted in c.-170 bps of group gross margin contraction and a -7% decline in gross profit versus 1H24.WHS guided to a 2H25 pre-IFRS 16 EBIT (‘Operating Profit’) loss of -NZ$14m, in line with 2H24. We think there is downside to 2H25 guidance, given: (1) heightened promotional pressure and gross margin exit run-rates in 2Q25; and (2) our expectation that domestic consumer spending remains subdued over the next six months. 

The Warehouse Group - 1H25 Result—Tough Going

<ul><li>The Warehouse Group's (WHS) 1H25 trading update highlighted that the January quarter was more challenging than we had feared.</li><li>While sales held up better than anticipated, gross margins came under pressure due to heightened promotional activity.</li><li>First time 1H25 pre-IFRS 16 EBIT (operating profit) guidance provided was NZ$18m–NZ$20m, with another -NZ$14m loss expected in 2H25, implying FY25 operating profit of </li></ul>

The Warehouse Group's (WHS) 1H25 trading update highlighted that the January quarter was more challenging than we had feared.While sales held up better than anticipated, gross margins came under pressure due to heightened promotional activity.First time 1H25 pre-IFRS 16 EBIT (operating profit) guidance provided was NZ$18m–NZ$20m, with another -NZ$14m loss expected in 2H25, implying FY25 operating profit of 

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Cuscaden Peak, the sponsor of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/paragon-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5994:1" rel="noopener">Paragon REIT (PGNREIT SP)</a> and 61.5% shareholder, has offered S$0.98/unit, in cash; or S$1.003/unit, a 7% premium to NAV, when including FY24's S$0.0233/unit cash distribution.</li>
<li>The Offer is by way of a Scheme. The Offer price has NOT been declared final. A switch option into a voluntary Offer is afforded should a competing Offer emerge.</li>
<li>Looks pretty clean. Assuming mid-late May payment, pay up to S$0.97/share for a 4%/15% gross/annualised spread. It may trade tighter given the early distribution payment.</li>
</ul>


Cuscaden Peak, the sponsor of Paragon REIT (PGNREIT SP) and 61.5% shareholder, has offered S$0.98/unit, in cash; or S$1.003/unit, a 7% premium to NAV, when including FY24's S$0.0233/unit cash distribution.
The Offer is by way of a Scheme. The Offer price has NOT been declared final. A switch option into a voluntary Offer is afforded should a competing Offer emerge.
Looks pretty clean. Assuming mid-late May payment, pay up to S$0.97/share for a 4%/15% gross/annualised spread. It may trade tighter given the early distribution payment.


Paragon REIT (PGNREIT SP)'s Privatisation Offer

<ul>
<li>I tally 35 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Those arbs metrics and upcoming events are detailed below.</li>
<li>Three new deals were  discussed on Smartkarma this week: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/qube-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:958:1" rel="noopener">Qube Holdings (QUB AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/monash-ivf-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18130:1" rel="noopener">Monash IVF (MVF AU)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/national-storage-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13762:1" rel="noopener">National Storage REIT (NSR AU)</a>.</li>
<li>Key updates/news also took place on: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/iress-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15342:1" rel="noopener">Iress Ltd (IRE AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ane-cayman-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35025:1" rel="noopener">ANE Cayman Inc (9956 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/digital-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1697:1" rel="noopener">Digital Holdings Inc (2389 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grindr-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:37106:1" rel="noopener">Grindr (GRND US)</a>.</li>
</ul>


I tally 35 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Those arbs metrics and upcoming events are detailed below.
Three new deals were  discussed on Smartkarma this week: Qube Holdings (QUB AU), Monash IVF (MVF AU), and National Storage REIT (NSR AU).
Key updates/news also took place on: Iress Ltd (IRE AU), ANE Cayman Inc (9956 HK), Digital Holdings Inc (2389 JP), and Grindr (GRND US).


Asia-Pac M&A Weekly Wrap: Mandom, Monash IVF, National Storage REIT, Iress, Digital Holdings, Grindr

New Zealand

The Warehouse Group Limited operates general merchandise and stationery supply retail stores throughout New Zealand.

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Warehouse Group Limited (WHS NZ)

The Warehouse Group (WHS) - 1H25 Trading Update - Doing it tough

Sales fell -1.6% to NZ$1.61b, which was less severe than anticipated by both FB (-2.5%) and VA Consensus (-2.7%). Gross margins were pressured by...

Forsyth Barr

The Warehouse Group - 1H25 Result—Tough Going

While sales declines moderated in 2Q25, heightened promotional activity and aged inventory resulted in c.-170 bps of group gross margin contraction...

Forsyth Barr

The Warehouse Group - Red, Red Sheds

The Warehouse Group's (WHS) 1H25 trading update highlighted that the January quarter was more challenging than we had feared.

Forsyth Barr

Paragon REIT (PGNREIT SP)'s Privatisation Offer

Looks pretty clean. A 7% premium to NAV and a roughly two-year high. If payment on or around late May, I'd pay up to S$0.97/share for a gross...

David Blennerhassett

Asia-Pac M&A Weekly Wrap: Mandom, Monash IVF, National Storage REIT, Iress, Digital Holdings, Grindr

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

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