Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Event-Driven

Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Co. Ltd / Event-Driven

On 22 June, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/washington-h-soul-pattinson-and-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6054:1" rel="noopener">Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Co. (SOL AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/milton-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29090:1" rel="noopener">Milton Corp Ltd (MLT AU)</a> announced that they had entered into a Scheme Implementation Agreement (SIA) under which <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/washington-h-soul-pattinson-and-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6054:1" rel="noopener">Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Co. (SOL AU)</a> would acquire 100% of the shares that it did not already own in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/milton-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29090:1" rel="noopener">Milton Corp Ltd (MLT AU)</a>.Since then, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/milton-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29090:1" rel="noopener">Milton Corp Ltd (MLT AU)</a> shares are up 15.5% and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/washington-h-soul-pattinson-and-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6054:1" rel="noopener">Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Co. Ltd (SOL AU)</a> shares are up 13.8%.On 5 August, the Court approved the convening of the Scheme Meeting on 13 September. That resulted in the fixing of the Calculation Date at 2 September.As we near the Calculation Date, it is almost certain that neither of the MACs will be triggered and is it most likely that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/milton-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29090:1" rel="noopener">Milton Corp Ltd (MLT AU)</a> shares holders will approve the deal.Based on our calculations, as of the close on 26 August, the Net Tangible Assets of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/milton-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29090:1" rel="noopener">Milton Corp Ltd (MLT AU)</a> are A$5.6469 and MLT shareholders will receive 0.184407 shares of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/washington-h-soul-pattinson-and-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6054:1" rel="noopener">Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Co. Ltd (SOL AU)</a> for each share of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/milton-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29090:1" rel="noopener">Milton Corp Ltd (MLT AU)</a> that they hold.With the Second Court Hearing date set for 20 September and the effective date on 21 September, the index providers will increase their index shares for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/washington-h-soul-pattinson-and-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6054:1" rel="noopener">Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Co. Ltd (SOL AU)</a> soon after. We expect there will be significant buying on the stock from passive funds and do not expect too many of the current <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/milton-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29090:1" rel="noopener">Milton Corp Ltd (MLT AU)</a> shareholders to sell <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/washington-h-soul-pattinson-and-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6054:1" rel="noopener">Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Co. Ltd (SOL AU)</a> stock in the market immediately given the lack of liquid alternatives.<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/argo-investments-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29060:1" rel="noopener">Argo Investments Ltd (ARG AU)</a> could be a beneficiary of flow out of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/washington-h-soul-pattinson-and-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6054:1" rel="noopener">Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Co. Ltd (SOL AU)</a>.

On 22 June, Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Co. (SOL AU) and Milton Corp Ltd (MLT AU) announced that they had entered into a Scheme Implementation Agreement (SIA) under which Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Co. (SOL AU) would acquire 100% of the shares that it did not already own in Milton Corp Ltd (MLT AU).Since then, Milton Corp Ltd (MLT AU) shares are up 15.5% and Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Co. Ltd (SOL AU) shares are up 13.8%.On 5 August, the Court approved the convening of the Scheme Meeting on 13 September. That resulted in the fixing of the Calculation Date at 2 September.As we near the Calculation Date, it is almost certain that neither of the MACs will be triggered and is it most likely that Milton Corp Ltd (MLT AU) shares holders will approve the deal.Based on our calculations, as of the close on 26 August, the Net Tangible Assets of Milton Corp Ltd (MLT AU) are A$5.6469 and MLT shareholders will receive 0.184407 shares of Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Co. Ltd (SOL AU) for each share of Milton Corp Ltd (MLT AU) that they hold.With the Second Court Hearing date set for 20 September and the effective date on 21 September, the index providers will increase their index shares for Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Co. Ltd (SOL AU) soon after. We expect there will be significant buying on the stock from passive funds and do not expect too many of the current Milton Corp Ltd (MLT AU) shareholders to sell Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Co. Ltd (SOL AU) stock in the market immediately given the lack of liquid alternatives.Argo Investments Ltd (ARG AU) could be a beneficiary of flow out of Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Co. Ltd (SOL AU).

Milton - WHSP: Nearing the Finish Line Where HUGE Passive Buying Awaits

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

The Marvelous Milton Merger which is the proposed joining of two of Australia's longest-lived Listed Investment Companies - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/milton-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29090:1" rel="noopener">Milton Corp Ltd (MLT AU)</a> to be absorbed in a share swap by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/washington-h-soul-pattinson-and-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6054:1" rel="noopener">Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Co. Ltd (SOL AU)</a> ("WHSP") - is coming closer to its do-or-die date.There is one week until the Reference Date which will decide the share swap ratio and there are 12 trading days until the Scheme Meeting. I have not been shy in writing about this situation. <table class="table table-striped">
<colgroup>
<col>
<col>
</colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr><td colspan="2" style="text-align: left; width: 539pt;"><h2>History of Insights on the Situation</h2></td></tr>
<tr>
<td>Date</td>
<td>Title</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>22-Jun-21</td>
<td><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/milton-merger-is-a-most-marvelous-arb" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Milton Merger Is A Most Marvelous Arb</a></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>24-Jun-21</td>
<td><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/milton-whsp-merger-index-implications-and-the-marvelous-arb" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Milton-WHSP Merger Index Implications and the Marvelous Arb</a></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>21-Jul-21</td>
<td><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/milton-s-marvelous-arm-meanders-along-marvelously" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Milton’s Marvelous Arb Meanders Along... Marvelously</a></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>5-Aug-21</td>
<td><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/the-still-marvelous-milton-arb-confirms-its-schedule-much-marvelousness-to-come" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The STILL MARVELOUS Milton Arb Confirms Its Schedule - Much Marvelousness to Come</a></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>12-Aug-21</td>
<td><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/the-magnality-of-the-marvelous-milton-merger-makes-a-moribund-march-to-metaphysis-it-s-mirific" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Magnality of the Marvelous Milton Merger Makes a Moribund March To Metaphysis (It’s Mirific!)</a></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>As time has passed, and the situation has looked more and more attractive, my mafficking and multitarian mysteriosophy (and occasional mussitation) has led to longer titles with more and more Ms.This time, I note that with both Milton and WHSP hitting new 30-year highs today, despite the merger arb spread remaining reasonably wide, there are signs that the situation has started "accruing value."While I am far from being a martinet (I am indeed more a mobilist), my mathemancy suggests Milton is maturing. More on how to Mind the Movement below the fold.

The Marvelous Milton Merger which is the proposed joining of two of Australia's longest-lived Listed Investment Companies - Milton Corp Ltd (MLT AU) to be absorbed in a share swap by Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Co. Ltd (SOL AU) ("WHSP") - is coming closer to its do-or-die date.There is one week until the Reference Date which will decide the share swap ratio and there are 12 trading days until the Scheme Meeting. I have not been shy in writing about this situation. 





History of Insights on the Situation

Date
Title


22-Jun-21
Milton Merger Is A Most Marvelous Arb


24-Jun-21
Milton-WHSP Merger Index Implications and the Marvelous Arb


21-Jul-21
Milton’s Marvelous Arb Meanders Along... Marvelously


5-Aug-21
The STILL MARVELOUS Milton Arb Confirms Its Schedule - Much Marvelousness to Come


12-Aug-21
The Magnality of the Marvelous Milton Merger Makes a Moribund March To Metaphysis (It’s Mirific!)


As time has passed, and the situation has looked more and more attractive, my mafficking and multitarian mysteriosophy (and occasional mussitation) has led to longer titles with more and more Ms.This time, I note that with both Milton and WHSP hitting new 30-year highs today, despite the merger arb spread remaining reasonably wide, there are signs that the situation has started "accruing value."While I am far from being a martinet (I am indeed more a mobilist), my mathemancy suggests Milton is maturing. More on how to Mind the Movement below the fold. 

Marvelous Milton Making Its Move - New 30yr Highs On Both Stocks

M is for Milton. M is for Moribund, and Mortmain too.  There is a stubborn stickiness to Milton pricing which is surprising, especially given the inputs to the trade. This situation was outlined in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/milton-merger-is-a-most-marvelous-arb" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:53464" rel="noopener">Milton Merger Is A Most Marvelous Arb</a>. The various impacts and influences were discussed further in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/milton-whsp-merger-index-implications-and-the-marvelous-arb" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:53551" rel="noopener">Milton-WHSP Merger Index Implications and the Marvelous Arb</a>. There was followup with cool tables in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/milton-s-marvelous-arm-meanders-along-marvelously" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:54765" rel="noopener">Milton's Marvelous Arb Meanders Along... Marvelously</a>. There was additional table-pounding in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/the-still-marvelous-milton-arb-confirms-its-schedule-much-marvelousness-to-come" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:55604" rel="noopener">The STILL MARVELOUS Milton Arb Confirms Its Schedule - Much Marvelousness to Come</a>. I assume readers may draw conclusions from the titles as to where I stand. It isn't any less marvelous today. Indeed it is mirific!Since the 22 June joint announcement of the intention of Listed Investment Corporation <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/milton-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29090:1" rel="noopener">Milton Corp Ltd (MLT AU)</a> to merge with other Listed Investment Corporation <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/washington-h-soul-pattinson-and-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6054:1" rel="noopener">Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Co. Ltd (SOL AU)</a> ("WHSP"), both Milton and WHSP have traded significant excess volume.One question is HOW MUCH?The other question is DOES IT MATTER?We look at both questions below, and at the pricing and of the situation today.

M is for Milton. M is for Moribund, and Mortmain too.  There is a stubborn stickiness to Milton pricing which is surprising, especially given the inputs to the trade. This situation was outlined in Milton Merger Is A Most Marvelous Arb. The various impacts and influences were discussed further in Milton-WHSP Merger Index Implications and the Marvelous Arb. There was followup with cool tables in Milton's Marvelous Arb Meanders Along... Marvelously. There was additional table-pounding in The STILL MARVELOUS Milton Arb Confirms Its Schedule - Much Marvelousness to Come. I assume readers may draw conclusions from the titles as to where I stand. It isn't any less marvelous today. Indeed it is mirific!Since the 22 June joint announcement of the intention of Listed Investment Corporation Milton Corp Ltd (MLT AU) to merge with other Listed Investment Corporation Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Co. Ltd (SOL AU) ("WHSP"), both Milton and WHSP have traded significant excess volume.One question is HOW MUCH?The other question is DOES IT MATTER?We look at both questions below, and at the pricing and of the situation today.

The Magnality of the Marvelous Milton Merger Makes a Moribund March To Metaphysis (It's Mirific!)

The Marvelous Milton Arb continues to be Maaaahvelous, darling, though you wouldn't know it to see the price evolution. The Simple Arb is, as I write, trading at a 3.8% spread.I expect that is because people do not see how marvelous this is. <iframe src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/5gbDgptNlvA" width="560" height="315" title="YouTube video player" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen="allowfullscreen"></iframe>That is their loss.I am sure Smartkarma readers know how mahvelous this situation is.Last week we got the monthly <a href="https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20210802/pdf/44yx7t2blf4t29.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">NAV update for July 2021</a> suggesting a A$5.53. The Quiddity model for the NAV was a little bit less than half a penny higher, though it is possible And as of this morning, we have more detail on the <a href="https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20210805/pdf/44z1f0732j455j.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Milton-WHSP Merger Schedule</a>. That matters because there continues to be delicious optionality on this situation. Both active managers and passive managers holding WHSP can benefit. MLT Hodlers should HODL. And as always, there is much more explication below the fold. <hr>The original piece with the fancy arithmetic in the Marvelous MLT Merger Model is described in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/milton-merger-is-a-most-marvelous-arb" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:53464" rel="noopener">Milton Merger Is A Most Marvelous Arb</a>.The index treatment is in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/milton-whsp-merger-index-implications-and-the-marvelous-arb" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:53551" rel="noopener">Milton-WHSP Merger Index Implications and the Marvelous Arb</a>.The followup showing more marvelousness (is that a word?) is in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/milton-s-marvelous-arm-meanders-along-marvelously" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:54765" rel="noopener">Milton's Marvelous Arb Meanders Along... Marvelously</a>.

The Marvelous Milton Arb continues to be Maaaahvelous, darling, though you wouldn't know it to see the price evolution. The Simple Arb is, as I write, trading at a 3.8% spread.I expect that is because people do not see how marvelous this is. That is their loss.I am sure Smartkarma readers know how mahvelous this situation is.Last week we got the monthly NAV update for July 2021 suggesting a A$5.53. The Quiddity model for the NAV was a little bit less than half a penny higher, though it is possible And as of this morning, we have more detail on the Milton-WHSP Merger Schedule. That matters because there continues to be delicious optionality on this situation. Both active managers and passive managers holding WHSP can benefit. MLT Hodlers should HODL. And as always, there is much more explication below the fold. The original piece with the fancy arithmetic in the Marvelous MLT Merger Model is described in Milton Merger Is A Most Marvelous Arb.The index treatment is in Milton-WHSP Merger Index Implications and the Marvelous Arb.The followup showing more marvelousness (is that a word?) is in Milton's Marvelous Arb Meanders Along... Marvelously. 

The STILL MARVELOUS Milton Arb Confirms Its Schedule - Much Marvelousness to Come

<h3>The SHORT &amp; SWEET</h3><ul>
<li>Australian banks are seeing or are going to see sharp hikes in H1 dividends this year despite APRA guidance to be prudent with capital decisions. </li>
<li>APRA changed its guidance on 29 July. </li>
<li>ANZ had announced a decent-sized buyback earlier in July and NAB announced one on 30 July. </li>
<li>Others are expected to announce buy-backs in August.</li>
</ul><h3>The Longer Introduction</h3>In April 2020 when markets were crashing and there was tremendous uncertainty about what ravages covid might bring to every sector of the economy, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/national-australia-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15:1" rel="noopener">National Australia Bank (NAB AU)</a> slashed its dividend and launched a A$3.5bn capital raise. Other companies did the same, but the other major banks avoided a capital raise in 2020 because they had either raised equity earlier (all four majors raised equity in 2015, but <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/westpac-banking-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:444:1" rel="noopener">Westpac Banking (WBC AU)</a> also raised in Nov 2019) or they cut or eliminated an interim dividend (ANZ and CBA cut theirs, and Westpac eliminated their div for H1 2020 entirely).For NAB, the capital raise was an institutional share placement of A$3bn and a A$500mm Share Purchase Plan (SPP) targeting individual shareholders. The SPP was well-received, priced at A$14.15/share - the same price as the placement - so when books closed a month later and the market price was 10% higher, demand had been strong enough that the SPP was boosted by A$750mm to A$1.25bn. That was probably overly cautious at the time, but it was a huge gift to shareholders. A week after the SPP shares started trading on 2 June, the shares were changing hands above A$20/share. Fast forward almost a year later to the 6 May release of H1 earnings and the bank said it had too much capital with its Common Equity Tier 1 ratio at 12.37-12.40%. It noted it intended to take action to lower that but stay above APRA's Unquestionably Strong benchmark of 10.5%. This came despite APRA's <a href="https://www.apra.gov.au/news-and-publications/apra-issues-guidance-to-authorised-deposit-taking-institutions-and-insurers" target="_blank" rel="noopener">guidance</a> in early April of 2021 that it expected deposit-taking institutions it expected they (and other financial institutions) "limit discretionary capital distributions in the months ahead, including deferrals or prudent reductions in dividends." The 7 April <a href="https://www.apra.gov.au/sites/default/files/2020-04/Capital%20management.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">letter</a> (pdf) on Capital Management said,<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/221/292/original/Screenshot+2021-07-31+at+3.03.52+PM.png?1627715057" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="221292"></figure></section>Interestingly, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/australia-and-new-zealand-banking-group-anz" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:443:1" rel="noopener">Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) (ANZ AU)</a> announced a A$1.5bn buyback - ~2% of market cap - on 19 July and the stock bounced $1/share to A$28/share over a few days. This was obviously discussed with APRA but ANZ CEO Shayne Elliott had said on 5 May when reporting a 126% increase in H1 profit helped by writebacks, and a jump in H1 div,  that the Australian economy was booming and said, “Australia is in really good shape in where we sit today," and he quite clearly laid out the case for a buyback then.<blockquote>
 “We have an embarrassment of riches, if you will, in terms of excess capital.”
“Clearly the only path to get to 10.8, putting aside almost unimaginable growth in our balance sheet, would be some sort of capital management activity,”
ANZ Bank CEO Shayne Elliott (5 May 2021)
</blockquote>ANZ was first off the block.On 29 July, APRA <a href="https://www.apra.gov.au/news-and-publications/apra-updates-guidance-on-capital-management-for-banks-and-insurers" target="_blank" rel="noopener">updated its guidance</a> and the <a href="https://www.apra.gov.au/sites/default/files/2020-07/Letter%20to%20authorised%20deposit-taking%20institutions%20-%20Capital%20management.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">new letter</a> on capital management eliminates the strict requirement but maintains guidance on 50% dividend payout. <h3>New NAB News</h3>On Friday 30 July 2021, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/national-australia-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15:1" rel="noopener">National Australia Bank (NAB AU)</a> filed an <a href="https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20210730/pdf/44yt960pv5csx8.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announcement</a> with the ASX for an on-market buyback for A$2.5bn of its shares, which is about 3% of current market cap, as part of its effort to move its Common Equity Tier 1 ratio to 10.75-11.25%. Under Corporations Act 2001, a company has to announce an on-market buyback to ASIC 14 days before starting. The buyback is expected to start in mid-late August and go through a period as long as end July 2022. That ASIC <a href="https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20210730/pdf/44ytb9zm9cfdpn.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">lodgment</a> was made Friday too. Because it is an on-market buy back under the limits of the 10/12 rule (&gt;10% of shares to be bought back in &lt;12 months), no further details are required to be given out.<blockquote>
The timing and actual number of shares purchased under the buy-back will depend on market conditions, the prevailing share price and other considerations....
In addition to the on-market buy-back announced today, NAB intends to purchase shares on-market to satisfy Dividend Reinvestment Plan requirements over the buy-back period...
The exact nature, amount, and timing of any further capital returns beyond the $2.5 billion on-market buy-back announced today, will be dependent on market conditions and capital outlook.
</blockquote>Despite the still strict-sounding guidance from APRA, the organisation conducted stress tests and released results last December saying even in "severe downside scenario" where growth dropped 15% and unemployment rose 13% and house prices fell 30%, the major banks would all pass the minimum capital requirement with room to spare.The fact that these two banks have announced buybacks indicates APRA is comfortable with where banks stand, suggesting that the even more capitaltastic Westpac and CBA are likely to announce buybacks next month with earnings.

The SHORT &amp; SWEET
Australian banks are seeing or are going to see sharp hikes in H1 dividends this year despite APRA guidance to be prudent with capital decisions. 
APRA changed its guidance on 29 July. 
ANZ had announced a decent-sized buyback earlier in July and NAB announced one on 30 July. 
Others are expected to announce buy-backs in August.
The Longer IntroductionIn April 2020 when markets were crashing and there was tremendous uncertainty about what ravages covid might bring to every sector of the economy, National Australia Bank (NAB AU) slashed its dividend and launched a A$3.5bn capital raise. Other companies did the same, but the other major banks avoided a capital raise in 2020 because they had either raised equity earlier (all four majors raised equity in 2015, but Westpac Banking (WBC AU) also raised in Nov 2019) or they cut or eliminated an interim dividend (ANZ and CBA cut theirs, and Westpac eliminated their div for H1 2020 entirely).For NAB, the capital raise was an institutional share placement of A$3bn and a A$500mm Share Purchase Plan (SPP) targeting individual shareholders. The SPP was well-received, priced at A$14.15/share - the same price as the placement - so when books closed a month later and the market price was 10% higher, demand had been strong enough that the SPP was boosted by A$750mm to A$1.25bn. That was probably overly cautious at the time, but it was a huge gift to shareholders. A week after the SPP shares started trading on 2 June, the shares were changing hands above A$20/share. Fast forward almost a year later to the 6 May release of H1 earnings and the bank said it had too much capital with its Common Equity Tier 1 ratio at 12.37-12.40%. It noted it intended to take action to lower that but stay above APRA's Unquestionably Strong benchmark of 10.5%. This came despite APRA's guidance in early April of 2021 that it expected deposit-taking institutions it expected they (and other financial institutions) "limit discretionary capital distributions in the months ahead, including deferrals or prudent reductions in dividends." The 7 April letter (pdf) on Capital Management said,Interestingly, Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) (ANZ AU) announced a A$1.5bn buyback - ~2% of market cap - on 19 July and the stock bounced $1/share to A$28/share over a few days. This was obviously discussed with APRA but ANZ CEO Shayne Elliott had said on 5 May when reporting a 126% increase in H1 profit helped by writebacks, and a jump in H1 div,  that the Australian economy was booming and said, “Australia is in really good shape in where we sit today," and he quite clearly laid out the case for a buyback then.
 “We have an embarrassment of riches, if you will, in terms of excess capital.”
“Clearly the only path to get to 10.8, putting aside almost unimaginable growth in our balance sheet, would be some sort of capital management activity,”
ANZ Bank CEO Shayne Elliott (5 May 2021)
ANZ was first off the block.On 29 July, APRA updated its guidance and the new letter on capital management eliminates the strict requirement but maintains guidance on 50% dividend payout. New NAB NewsOn Friday 30 July 2021, National Australia Bank (NAB AU) filed an announcement with the ASX for an on-market buyback for A$2.5bn of its shares, which is about 3% of current market cap, as part of its effort to move its Common Equity Tier 1 ratio to 10.75-11.25%. Under Corporations Act 2001, a company has to announce an on-market buyback to ASIC 14 days before starting. The buyback is expected to start in mid-late August and go through a period as long as end July 2022. That ASIC lodgment was made Friday too. Because it is an on-market buy back under the limits of the 10/12 rule (&gt;10% of shares to be bought back in &lt;12 months), no further details are required to be given out.
The timing and actual number of shares purchased under the buy-back will depend on market conditions, the prevailing share price and other considerations....
In addition to the on-market buy-back announced today, NAB intends to purchase shares on-market to satisfy Dividend Reinvestment Plan requirements over the buy-back period...
The exact nature, amount, and timing of any further capital returns beyond the $2.5 billion on-market buy-back announced today, will be dependent on market conditions and capital outlook.
Despite the still strict-sounding guidance from APRA, the organisation conducted stress tests and released results last December saying even in "severe downside scenario" where growth dropped 15% and unemployment rose 13% and house prices fell 30%, the major banks would all pass the minimum capital requirement with room to spare.The fact that these two banks have announced buybacks indicates APRA is comfortable with where banks stand, suggesting that the even more capitaltastic Westpac and CBA are likely to announce buybacks next month with earnings. 

Aussie Bank Buyback Season Starts - Expect A$12-15bn and Funky Flows

Australia

Washington H. Soul Pattinson & Company Limited is an investment holding company. The Company owns shares and properties, coal mining, bulk handling, commercial television licensee, telecommunications carrier, merchant banking, funds management, pharmaceutical retailing, manufacture, processing and marketing of biscuits and cakes.

Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Co. Ltd (SOL AU)

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Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Co. Ltd (SOL AU)

Milton - WHSP: Nearing the Finish Line Where HUGE Passive Buying Awaits

The Milton/WHSP deal looks like its done. MACs unlikely to be triggered, Scheme Meeting should deliver a yes, passive buying awaits at the end....

Brian Freitas

Marvelous Milton Making Its Move - New 30yr Highs On Both Stocks

Marvelous Milton and Superb SOL have just hit 30yr highs today. A magnality to be sure. 7 trading days left. Watch excess volume and the WHSP...

Travis Lundy

The Magnality of the Marvelous Milton Merger Makes a Moribund March To Metaphysis (It's Mirific!)

The Marvelous Milton Merger Trade is somewhat moribund, perhaps suffering from mortmain. But remains mirific. There is considerable skew and...

Travis Lundy

The STILL MARVELOUS Milton Arb Confirms Its Schedule - Much Marvelousness to Come

The Marvelous Milton Arb is still marvelous. I don't get how this isn't better appreciated by the market yet. Importantly, EVERYONE who holds WHSP...

Travis Lundy

Aussie Bank Buyback Season Starts - Expect A$12-15bn and Funky Flows

Aussie Bank Buyback Season is starting. ANZ a week plus ago. NAB on Friday. CBA and WBC likely to return franking credits via off-market buybacks....

Travis Lundy

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