Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The changes at the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225</a> September rebalance were announced on 4 September. The rebalance of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">HSI</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">HSCEI</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">HSTECH</a> and HSCI was implemented on the same day.</li>
<li>The changes to the MVIS indices were announced on 8 September and will be implemented at the close on 15 September. The S&amp;P/ASX family will also rebalance on 15 September.</li>
<li>After a month and a half of big inflows to onshore China ETFs, there were small outflows from a lot of ETFs during the week.</li>
</ul>


The changes at the Nikkei 225 September rebalance were announced on 4 September. The rebalance of the HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH and HSCI was implemented on the same day.
The changes to the MVIS indices were announced on 8 September and will be implemented at the close on 15 September. The S&amp;P/ASX family will also rebalance on 15 September.
After a month and a half of big inflows to onshore China ETFs, there were small outflows from a lot of ETFs during the week.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: NKY, ASX, CSI300, KOSDAQ150, Yuanta ETFs, MVA, MVW, SMH

<ul>
<li>There are a bunch of stocks that are constituents of the S&amp;P/ASX family of indices and could go private or merge prior to the next scheduled rebalance in December.</li>
<li>That will lead to ad hoc inclusions for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> and could also lead to ad hoc inclusions for the S&amp;P/ASX 50 and S&amp;P/ASX 100 indices.</li>
<li>There is a fair amount of short interest on some of the potential inclusions and short covering due to index inclusion could take the stocks higher.</li>
</ul>


There are a bunch of stocks that are constituents of the S&amp;P/ASX family of indices and could go private or merge prior to the next scheduled rebalance in December.
That will lead to ad hoc inclusions for the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) and could also lead to ad hoc inclusions for the S&amp;P/ASX 50 and S&amp;P/ASX 100 indices.
There is a fair amount of short interest on some of the potential inclusions and short covering due to index inclusion could take the stocks higher.


Mergers, Acquisitions and Potential S&P/ASX Index Ad Hoc Inclusions

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Dec 30th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD15.4bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in CAB, Fortescue Metals, Westpac, NAB, CSL, Yancoal, Washington H.Soul, Blackmores, De Grey Mining.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Dec 30th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD15.4bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in CAB, Fortescue Metals, Westpac, NAB, CSL, Yancoal, Washington H.Soul, Blackmores, De Grey Mining.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Dec 30th):CAB, Fortescue Metals, Westpac, NAB, CSL

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Oct 7th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD16.9bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in CBA, BHP, Westpac, Wesfarmers, CSL, South32, Fortescue, IGO, OZ Minerals, Washington  H. SO. </li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Oct 7th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD16.9bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in CBA, BHP, Westpac, Wesfarmers, CSL, South32, Fortescue, IGO, OZ Minerals, Washington  H. SO. 


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Oct 7th): CBA, BHP, Westpac, Wesfarmers, CSL

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>Hospital operator <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ramsay-health-care-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:673:1" rel="noopener">Ramsay Health Care (RHC AU)</a></strong> has <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02511581-2A1369312?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> an unsolicited, non-binding Offer from KKR, by way of a Scheme, at A$88.00/share, in cash, a 36.7% premium to last close.</li>
<li>Presumably, Paul Ramsay's Ramsay Foundation, Ramsay's largest shareholder, is supportive, otherwise there is no deal.</li>
<li>Due diligence has been granted. If successful, this would be one of the largest LBOs by a private equity outfit in Australia. </li>
</ul>


Hospital operator Ramsay Health Care (RHC AU) has announced an unsolicited, non-binding Offer from KKR, by way of a Scheme, at A$88.00/share, in cash, a 36.7% premium to last close.
Presumably, Paul Ramsay's Ramsay Foundation, Ramsay's largest shareholder, is supportive, otherwise there is no deal.
Due diligence has been granted. If successful, this would be one of the largest LBOs by a private equity outfit in Australia. 


Australia

Washington H. Soul Pattinson & Company Limited is an investment holding company. The Company owns shares and properties, coal mining, bulk handling, commercial television licensee, telecommunications carrier, merchant banking, funds management, pharmaceutical retailing, manufacture, processing and marketing of biscuits and cakes.

Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Co. Ltd (SOL AU)

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Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Co. Ltd (SOL AU)

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: NKY, ASX, CSI300, KOSDAQ150, Yuanta ETFs, MVA, MVW, SMH

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

Mergers, Acquisitions and Potential S&P/ASX Index Ad Hoc Inclusions

There are 5 companies that are members of the S&P/ASX indices and could be delisted prior to the next rebalance in December. That could mean ad hoc...

Brian Freitas

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Dec 30th):CAB, Fortescue Metals, Westpac, NAB, CSL

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in CAB, Fortescue Metals, Westpac, NAB, CSL, Yancoal,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Oct 7th): CBA, BHP, Westpac, Wesfarmers, CSL

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in CBA, BHP, Westpac, Wesfarmers, CSL, South32,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: NKY, ASX, CSI300, KOSDAQ150, Yuanta ETFs, MVA, MVW, SMH

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

Mergers, Acquisitions and Potential S&P/ASX Index Ad Hoc Inclusions

There are 5 companies that are members of the S&P/ASX indices and could be delisted prior to the next rebalance in December. That could mean ad hoc...

Brian Freitas

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Dec 30th):CAB, Fortescue Metals, Westpac, NAB, CSL

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in CAB, Fortescue Metals, Westpac, NAB, CSL, Yancoal,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Oct 7th): CBA, BHP, Westpac, Wesfarmers, CSL

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in CBA, BHP, Westpac, Wesfarmers, CSL, South32,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

KKR Bids $88/Share For Ramsay Health

The Offer is indicative - for now. Trading at gross/annualised spread of 6.7%/12.6%, assuming early November completion. Not bad. Even better if...

David Blennerhassett