IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/predictive-discovery-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15374:1" rel="noopener">Predictive Discovery (PDI AU)</a> has disclosed a competing all-scrip scheme offer from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/perseus-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15306:1" rel="noopener">Perseus Mining (PRU AU)</a> at 0.136 Perseus shares per PDI share.</li>
<li>The Perseus offer is attractive compared to peer resource multiples and historical trading ranges. The Board had deemed the proposal superior to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/robex-resources-inc-5fcb5aec-772d-4972-be7e-30cad5c02e26" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45881:1" rel="noopener">Robex Resources (RBX CN)</a> merger transaction.</li>
<li>Robex has five business days to exercise matching rights. Robex will struggle to match due to the large gap in the offer values. </li>
</ul>



Predictive Discovery (PDI AU) has disclosed a competing all-scrip scheme offer from Perseus Mining (PRU AU) at 0.136 Perseus shares per PDI share.
The Perseus offer is attractive compared to peer resource multiples and historical trading ranges. The Board had deemed the proposal superior to the Robex Resources (RBX CN) merger transaction.
Robex has five business days to exercise matching rights. Robex will struggle to match due to the large gap in the offer values. 


Predictive Discovery (PDI AU): Perseus (PRU AU) Trumps Robex with a Competing Offer

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>On the 6th October, West African mid-tier gold play <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/predictive-discovery-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15374:1" rel="noopener">Predictive Discovery (PDI AU)</a> announced scrip-merger with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/robex-resources-inc-5fcb5aec-772d-4972-be7e-30cad5c02e26" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45881:1" rel="noopener">Robex Resources (RBX CN/RBX AU)</a>. Upon completion, PDI would hold 51% of shares out.</li>
<li>Immediately, rumours circled in local media that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/perseus-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15306:1" rel="noopener">Perseus Mining (PRU AU)</a>, PDI's largest shareholder (17.8%), was poised to launch its own offer. That has now unfolded. </li>
<li>Perseus is offering 0.1360 new Perseus share for every PDI share, or an indicative consideration of A$0.778/share. PDI deemed terms superior. Robex has matching rights under its definitive agreement.</li>
</ul>


On the 6th October, West African mid-tier gold play Predictive Discovery (PDI AU) announced scrip-merger with Robex Resources (RBX CN/RBX AU). Upon completion, PDI would hold 51% of shares out.
Immediately, rumours circled in local media that Perseus Mining (PRU AU), PDI's largest shareholder (17.8%), was poised to launch its own offer. That has now unfolded. 
Perseus is offering 0.1360 new Perseus share for every PDI share, or an indicative consideration of A$0.778/share. PDI deemed terms superior. Robex has matching rights under its definitive agreement.


Predictive: Perseus Pitches Preferred Proposal

Index Rebal/Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal/Special Situations

Index Rebalance

Clarity Pharmaceuticals Ltd / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run-up to the December 2025 index rebal event.</li>
<li>We expect two changes for ASX 50, two changes for ASX 100, and seven changes for ASX 200.</li>
<li>The official index changes will be announced after the close on Friday 5th December 2025.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run-up to the December 2025 index rebal event.
We expect two changes for ASX 50, two changes for ASX 100, and seven changes for ASX 200.
The official index changes will be announced after the close on Friday 5th December 2025.


Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Dec25: Reference Period Ending Soon; Some Surprises Possible

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>There could be 2 changes each for the ASX50 and ASX100 indices and 7 changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> in December.</li>
<li>Passive trackers will need to trade a lot of stock in the forecast changes, with the impact being especially large for the changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a>. </li>
<li>The forecast adds have outperformed (and continue to outperform) the forecast deletes to the S&amp;P/ASX 100 Index and the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a>. </li>
</ul>


There could be 2 changes each for the ASX50 and ASX100 indices and 7 changes for the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) in December.
Passive trackers will need to trade a lot of stock in the forecast changes, with the impact being especially large for the changes to the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX). 
The forecast adds have outperformed (and continue to outperform) the forecast deletes to the S&amp;P/ASX 100 Index and the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX). 


S&P/​​​​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview (Dec 25): Changes Across Indices as Positioning Picks Up

<ul>
<li>The gold rush continues as<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/predictive-discovery-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15374:1" rel="noopener"> Predictive (PDI AU)</a> and Robex (TSX-V: RBX, ASX: RXR) announce a scrip merger to form a West African mid-tier gold play.</li>
<li>Via a "definitive plan of arrangement", Robex shareholders will receive 8.667 PDI shares for every Robex share.  Upon completion, PDI will hold 51% of shares out, and Robex the remainder.</li>
<li>The Cohen Group and Eglington Mining (collectively holding 25.2% of Robex) are supportive. The key condition is Robex's shareholder vote, sometime in December, with a two-thirds threshold.</li>
</ul>


The gold rush continues as Predictive (PDI AU) and Robex (TSX-V: RBX, ASX: RXR) announce a scrip merger to form a West African mid-tier gold play.
Via a "definitive plan of arrangement", Robex shareholders will receive 8.667 PDI shares for every Robex share.  Upon completion, PDI will hold 51% of shares out, and Robex the remainder.
The Cohen Group and Eglington Mining (collectively holding 25.2% of Robex) are supportive. The key condition is Robex's shareholder vote, sometime in December, with a two-thirds threshold.


Australia

West African Resources Ltd. is a gold exploration company. The Company acquires, explores, and develops resource projects in West Africa. West African holds mineral tenements covering the Boulsa Gold Project within central Burkina Faso as well as has applied for exploration permits over the Marandet Uranium Project, located in the Tim Mersoi Basin of northern Niger.

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West African Resources (WAF AU)

Predictive Discovery (PDI AU): Perseus (PRU AU) Trumps Robex with a Competing Offer

The Perseus offer is attractive. Robex has five business days to exercise matching rights. Robex will struggle to match due to the large gap in the...

Arun George

Predictive: Perseus Pitches Preferred Proposal

Robex has limited options. PRU will just up the ante and block any attempt to wrangle "superior" terms. If you can take down borrow cheaply, look...

David Blennerhassett

Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Dec25: Reference Period Ending Soon; Some Surprises Possible

We have revised our expectations for ASX 100 (please see discussion point below the insight). These are our final expectations for the December...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview (Dec 25): Changes Across Indices as Positioning Picks Up

There could be 22 changes across the ASX family in Dec. Plus passive buying in LNW due to a sole listing on the ASX. The adds have outperformed and...

Brian Freitas

Predictive/Robex's Merger Of Equals

This looks clean. You could try to go long Robex, short PDI; however both the Aussie and Candian lines for Robex are (currently) illiquid.

David Blennerhassett

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Predictive Discovery (PDI AU): Perseus (PRU AU) Trumps Robex with a Competing Offer

The Perseus offer is attractive. Robex has five business days to exercise matching rights. Robex will struggle to match due to the large gap in the...

Arun George

Predictive: Perseus Pitches Preferred Proposal

Robex has limited options. PRU will just up the ante and block any attempt to wrangle "superior" terms. If you can take down borrow cheaply, look...

David Blennerhassett

Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Dec25: Reference Period Ending Soon; Some Surprises Possible

We have revised our expectations for ASX 100 (please see discussion point below the insight). These are our final expectations for the December...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

S&P/​​​​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview (Dec 25): Changes Across Indices as Positioning Picks Up

There could be 22 changes across the ASX family in Dec. Plus passive buying in LNW due to a sole listing on the ASX. The adds have outperformed and...

Brian Freitas

Predictive/Robex's Merger Of Equals

This looks clean. You could try to go long Robex, short PDI; however both the Aussie and Candian lines for Robex are (currently) illiquid.

David Blennerhassett

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview (Dec 25): Changes Across Indices as Positioning Picks Up