IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-fiber-system-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20826:1" rel="noopener">Golden Energy &amp; Resources (GER SP)</a>’s valuation is dependent on three key assets – <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/golden-energy-mines-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16150:1" rel="noopener">Golden Energy Mines (GEMS IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stanmore-coal-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15252:1" rel="noopener">Stanmore Coal (SMR AU)</a> and Ravenswood. GEMS/SMR have observable values.</li>
<li>The valuation of GEAR's 50% stake in Ravenswood gets little publicity largely as it is unlisted. However, the annual report provides data points to value this key gold asset. </li>
<li>Based on peer EV/Resource and EV/Reserve multiples, Ravenswood 50% stake is worth S$200-465 million. Using the midpoint valuation, the SoTP valuation is S$1.40 (39% upside to the last close).</li>
</ul>



Golden Energy &amp; Resources (GER SP)’s valuation is dependent on three key assets – Golden Energy Mines (GEMS IJ), Stanmore Coal (SMR AU) and Ravenswood. GEMS/SMR have observable values.
The valuation of GEAR's 50% stake in Ravenswood gets little publicity largely as it is unlisted. However, the annual report provides data points to value this key gold asset. 
Based on peer EV/Resource and EV/Reserve multiples, Ravenswood 50% stake is worth S$200-465 million. Using the midpoint valuation, the SoTP valuation is S$1.40 (39% upside to the last close).


Golden Energy (GER SP): Annual Report Data Points Further Underscore a Low-Balled Offer

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/st-barbara-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3764:1" rel="noopener">St Barbara Ltd (SBM AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/genesis-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4650:1" rel="noopener">Genesis Minerals (GMD AU)</a> will merge via a scheme at a gross exchange ratio of 2.0338 SBM shares per GMD share. </li>
<li>The deal metrics are favourable for GMD shareholders. The gross exchange ratio is attractive and values GMD at a slight premium to mid-cap ASX peers on an EV/Resource basis. </li>
<li>The likely pushback from SMB shareholders is that the terms were struck from a position of share price weakness. However, the low SMB shareholder voting threshold (50%) will help.</li>
</ul>



St Barbara Ltd (SBM AU) and Genesis Minerals (GMD AU) will merge via a scheme at a gross exchange ratio of 2.0338 SBM shares per GMD share. 
The deal metrics are favourable for GMD shareholders. The gross exchange ratio is attractive and values GMD at a slight premium to mid-cap ASX peers on an EV/Resource basis. 
The likely pushback from SMB shareholders is that the terms were struck from a position of share price weakness. However, the low SMB shareholder voting threshold (50%) will help.


Genesis Minerals (GMD AU) And St Barbara (SBM AU) Merger

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>Filo Mining (FIL CN) and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tietto-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28006:1" rel="noopener">Tietto Minerals (TIE AU)</a> are adds while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fresnillo-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21939:1" rel="noopener">Fresnillo (FRES LN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/galiano-gold-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32201:1" rel="noopener">Galiano Gold (GAU US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jaguar-mining-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25393:1" rel="noopener">Jaguar Mining (JAG CN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/novo-resources-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25859:1" rel="noopener">Novo Resources (NVO CN)</a> are deletes.</li>
<li>One way turnover is estimated at 4.3% resulting in a one-way trade of US$163m. There is over 1 day of ADV to trade on 24 stocks.</li>
<li>Largest inflows are on Filo Mining (FIL CN) and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tietto-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28006:1" rel="noopener">Tietto Minerals Ltd (TIE AU)</a> while largest outflows are on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fresnillo-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21939:1" rel="noopener">Fresnillo PLC (FRES LN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/centerra-gold-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25634:1" rel="noopener">Centerra Gold (CG CN)</a>. </li>
</ul>


Filo Mining (FIL CN) and Tietto Minerals (TIE AU) are adds while Fresnillo (FRES LN), Galiano Gold (GAU US), Jaguar Mining (JAG CN) and Novo Resources (NVO CN) are deletes.
One way turnover is estimated at 4.3% resulting in a one-way trade of US$163m. There is over 1 day of ADV to trade on 24 stocks.
Largest inflows are on Filo Mining (FIL CN) and Tietto Minerals Ltd (TIE AU) while largest outflows are on Fresnillo PLC (FRES LN) and Centerra Gold (CG CN). 


MVIS Global Junior Gold Miners Index Rebalance: Two Adds, Four Deletes, Float Changes

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/uniti-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29042:1" rel="noopener">Uniti Group Ltd (UWL AU)</a> Scheme Meeting was held Friday, <a href="https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20220715/pdf/45bwmksgwqgcfw.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">approving</a> both General Scheme Resolution and Rollover Shares Scheme unanimously. The MBD Bidco deal is done. </li>
<li>Friday after the close, the S&amp;P DJI Global Index team announced that Uniti would be deleted from the ASX200 21 July at the close.</li>
<li>Gold miner <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/west-african-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18794:1" rel="noopener">West African Resources (WAF AU)</a> was chosen as the replacement. It's a decent-sized inclusion and <em>should</em> have been well-flagged last week but may have been ignored.</li>
</ul>


The Uniti Group Ltd (UWL AU) Scheme Meeting was held Friday, approving both General Scheme Resolution and Rollover Shares Scheme unanimously. The MBD Bidco deal is done. 
Friday after the close, the S&amp;P DJI Global Index team announced that Uniti would be deleted from the ASX200 21 July at the close.
Gold miner West African Resources (WAF AU) was chosen as the replacement. It's a decent-sized inclusion and should have been well-flagged last week but may have been ignored.


S&P/ASX200: West African Resources (WAF) Replaces Uniti (UWL) At 21 July Close

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/west-african-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18794:1" rel="noopener">West African Resources (WAF AU)</a> will replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/uniti-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29042:1" rel="noopener">Uniti Group Ltd (UWL AU)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> at the close of trading on 21 July.</li>
<li>We estimate passive trackers will need to sell 45.3m shares (A$226m; 10.2 days of ADV) on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/uniti-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29042:1" rel="noopener">Uniti Group Ltd (UWL AU)</a> at the close on 21 July.</li>
<li>With over 10 days of ADV to buy from passive trackers and only 4 days to implementation, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/west-african-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18794:1" rel="noopener">West African Resources (WAF AU)</a> could outperform its peers till 21 July.</li>
</ul>



West African Resources (WAF AU) will replace Uniti Group Ltd (UWL AU) in the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) at the close of trading on 21 July.
We estimate passive trackers will need to sell 45.3m shares (A$226m; 10.2 days of ADV) on Uniti Group Ltd (UWL AU) at the close on 21 July.
With over 10 days of ADV to buy from passive trackers and only 4 days to implementation, West African Resources (WAF AU) could outperform its peers till 21 July.


ASX200 Index Rebalance: West African Resources (WAF) In; Uniti Group (UWL) Out

Australia

West African Resources Ltd. is a gold exploration company. The Company acquires, explores, and develops resource projects in West Africa. West African holds mineral tenements covering the Boulsa Gold Project within central Burkina Faso as well as has applied for exploration permits over the Marandet Uranium Project, located in the Tim Mersoi Basin of northern Niger.

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West African Resources (WAF AU)

Golden Energy (GER SP): Annual Report Data Points Further Underscore a Low-Balled Offer

The annual report released today provides data points to value the largely ignored Ravenswood gold asset. GEAR's 50% Ravenswood stake is worth...

Arun George

Genesis Minerals (GMD AU) And St Barbara (SBM AU) Merger

The deal metrics are favourable for GMD shareholders. The gross exchange ratio is attractive and values GMD at a slight premium to mid-cap ASX...

Arun George

MVIS Global Junior Gold Miners Index Rebalance: Two Adds, Four Deletes, Float Changes

There are 2 adds & 4 deletes resulting in one way turnover of 4.3% & a one-way trade of US$163m. There is over 1 day of ADV to trade on 24 stocks....

Brian Freitas

S&P/ASX200: West African Resources (WAF) Replaces Uniti (UWL) At 21 July Close

Uniti Group's Scheme is approved delisting is Friday 22 July. As a result, S&P/ASX200 needs a new member Thursday at the close. That's West African...

Travis Lundy

ASX200 Index Rebalance: West African Resources (WAF) In; Uniti Group (UWL) Out

West African Resources (WAF) will replace Uniti Group in the ASX200 at the close on 21 July. There is a lot to buy on WAF and the stock should...

Brian Freitas

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