IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/de-grey-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6192:1" rel="noopener">De Grey Mining (DEG AU)</a> entered a binding scheme with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/northern-star-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4243:1" rel="noopener">Northern Star Resources (NST AU)</a> at 0.119 NST shares per DEG share, implying A$2.08, a 37.1% premium to the undisturbed price. </li>
<li>The scheme is conditional on DEG shareholder approval. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gold-road-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6698:1" rel="noopener">Gold Road Resources (GOR AU)</a>, the largest shareholder, potentially holds a blocking stake and has not provided an irrevocable. </li>
<li>The offer is susceptible to a competing offer as it is all-scrip and unremarkable vs peer multiples. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/barrick-gold-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21023:1" rel="noopener">Barrick Gold (GOLD US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/agnico-eagle-mines-ltd-8b0f0329-d882-44b2-8bfc-7fe3a15f96b4" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:38576:1" rel="noopener">Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM US)</a> are potential suitors.</li>
</ul>



De Grey Mining (DEG AU) entered a binding scheme with Northern Star Resources (NST AU) at 0.119 NST shares per DEG share, implying A$2.08, a 37.1% premium to the undisturbed price. 
The scheme is conditional on DEG shareholder approval. Gold Road Resources (GOR AU), the largest shareholder, potentially holds a blocking stake and has not provided an irrevocable. 
The offer is susceptible to a competing offer as it is all-scrip and unremarkable vs peer multiples. Barrick Gold (GOLD US) and Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM US) are potential suitors.


De Grey Mining (DEG AU): Northern Star (NST AU)’s All-Scrip Offer Could Draw Out Competing Suitors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>
<strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/de-grey-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6192:1" rel="noopener">De Grey Mining (DEG AU)</a></strong>, which boasts one of Australia's largest undeveloped gold projects, has <a href="https://announcements.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20241202/pdf/06c3wj280vb2r0.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> a merger, by way of  Scheme, with <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/northern-star-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4243:1" rel="noopener">Northern Star Resources (NST AU)</a></strong>.</li>
<li>Northern Star is offering 0.119 new shares for every De Grey share, and will hold ~80.1% of the combined entity, with De Grey shareholders the remaining ~19.9%. </li>
<li>Terms back out an implied price of A$2.08/share, or a ~37% premium to last close. This Offer  has the unanimous backing of both boards. </li>
</ul>



De Grey Mining (DEG AU), which boasts one of Australia's largest undeveloped gold projects, has announced a merger, by way of  Scheme, with Northern Star Resources (NST AU).
Northern Star is offering 0.119 new shares for every De Grey share, and will hold ~80.1% of the combined entity, with De Grey shareholders the remaining ~19.9%. 
Terms back out an implied price of A$2.08/share, or a ~37% premium to last close. This Offer  has the unanimous backing of both boards. 


Northern Star’s A$5bn Tilt for De Grey (DEG AU)

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are 2 changes for the S&amp;P/ASX100 Index, 3 changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> and 16 adds/ 8 deletes for the S&amp;P/ASX300 Index.</li>
<li>The two big surprises are the inclusion of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guzman-y-gomez-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43656:1" rel="noopener">Guzman Y Gomez (GYG AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yancoal-australia-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4145:1" rel="noopener">Yancoal Australia (YAL AU)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> and S&amp;P/ASX300 Index.</li>
<li>The adds to the indices have outperformed the deletes over the last few months and there could be profit-taking in the next few days.</li>
</ul>


There are 2 changes for the S&amp;P/ASX100 Index, 3 changes for the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) and 16 adds/ 8 deletes for the S&amp;P/ASX300 Index.
The two big surprises are the inclusion of Guzman Y Gomez (GYG AU) and Yancoal Australia (YAL AU) in the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) and S&amp;P/ASX300 Index.
The adds to the indices have outperformed the deletes over the last few months and there could be profit-taking in the next few days.


S&P/​​​​ASX Index Rebalance (Sep 2024): Two Big Surprises; Positioning Is Mixed

<ul>
<li>There are 2 adds and 3 deletes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-vectors-junior-gold-miners-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32845:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ US)</a> in September. Plus there are capping and float changes.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 11.4% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$1.14bn. There are 16 stocks with over 1x ADV to trade from passive trackers.</li>
<li>The largest inflows are expected in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/b2gold-corp-fee72de9-9219-4f08-9e4a-eff9db71e070" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33420:1" rel="noopener">B2Gold Corp</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/evolution-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18363:1" rel="noopener">Evolution Mining</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pan-american-silver-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25399:1" rel="noopener">Pan American Silver</a> while the largest outflows are from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kinross-gold-corp-4566bc5d-6053-4c59-9b54-891e37079607" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33288:1" rel="noopener">Kinross Gold</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cia-de-minas-buenaventura-saa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27674:1" rel="noopener">Cia de Minas Buenaventura SAA</a>.</li>
</ul>


There are 2 adds and 3 deletes for the VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ US) in September. Plus there are capping and float changes.
Estimated one-way turnover is 11.4% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$1.14bn. There are 16 stocks with over 1x ADV to trade from passive trackers.
The largest inflows are expected in B2Gold Corp, Evolution Mining and Pan American Silver while the largest outflows are from Kinross Gold and Cia de Minas Buenaventura SAA.


MV Global Junior Gold Miners Index Rebalance: Round-Trip Trade of Over US$1bn

Index Rebal/Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal/Special Situations

<ul>
<li>The ADDs/DELs for the ASX index family for the September 2024 index rebal event were announced after market close on Friday 6th September 2024.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a final look at the flow expectations for each of these index changes.</li>
<li>We have also highlighted certain names with noticeable movements in short interest.</li>
</ul>


The ADDs/DELs for the ASX index family for the September 2024 index rebal event were announced after market close on Friday 6th September 2024.
In this insight, we take a final look at the flow expectations for each of these index changes.
We have also highlighted certain names with noticeable movements in short interest.


Quiddity ASX Sep 24 Rebal: Two Big Surprises; Short Interest Trends; Stunning Trade Performance

Australia

Westgold Resources Limited provides gold mining services. The Company owns and operates gold mining projects. Westgold Resources conducts its business in Australia.

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Westgold Resources (WGX AU)

De Grey Mining (DEG AU): Northern Star (NST AU)’s All-Scrip Offer Could Draw Out Competing Suitors

The offer is susceptible to a competing offer as it is all-scrip and unremarkable vs peer resource/reserve multiples. Barrick Gold and Agnico Eagle...

Arun George

Northern Star’s A$5bn Tilt for De Grey (DEG AU)

Terms are fair. The implied Offer price for De Grey is a lifetime high. If you can take down borrow cheaply on Northern Star, do so. Expect the...

David Blennerhassett

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance (Sep 2024): Two Big Surprises; Positioning Is Mixed

The index rebalances at the close today. Stocks have moved a lot over the last couple of weeks since announcements and some positioning will be...

Brian Freitas

MV Global Junior Gold Miners Index Rebalance: Round-Trip Trade of Over US$1bn

2 adds and 3 deletes result in a 1-way turnover of 11.4% and a round-trip trade of US$1.14bn for the GDXJ. Kinross Gold is the big sell while...

Brian Freitas

Quiddity ASX Sep 24 Rebal: Two Big Surprises; Short Interest Trends; Stunning Trade Performance

Yancoal (YAL AU) and Guzman Y Gomez (GYG AU) will be added to both ASX 200 and ASX 300. These were the biggest surprises for the September 2024...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

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De Grey Mining (DEG AU): Northern Star (NST AU)’s All-Scrip Offer Could Draw Out Competing Suitors

The offer is susceptible to a competing offer as it is all-scrip and unremarkable vs peer resource/reserve multiples. Barrick Gold and Agnico Eagle...

Arun George

Northern Star’s A$5bn Tilt for De Grey (DEG AU)

Terms are fair. The implied Offer price for De Grey is a lifetime high. If you can take down borrow cheaply on Northern Star, do so. Expect the...

David Blennerhassett

S&P/​​​​ASX Index Rebalance (Sep 2024): Two Big Surprises; Positioning Is Mixed

The index rebalances at the close today. Stocks have moved a lot over the last couple of weeks since announcements and some positioning will be...

Brian Freitas

MV Global Junior Gold Miners Index Rebalance: Round-Trip Trade of Over US$1bn

2 adds and 3 deletes result in a 1-way turnover of 11.4% and a round-trip trade of US$1.14bn for the GDXJ. Kinross Gold is the big sell while...

Brian Freitas

Quiddity ASX Sep 24 Rebal: Two Big Surprises; Short Interest Trends; Stunning Trade Performance

Yancoal (YAL AU) and Guzman Y Gomez (GYG AU) will be added to both ASX 200 and ASX 300. These were the biggest surprises for the September 2024...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance (Sep 2024): Two Big Surprises; Positioning Is Mixed