Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

There is risk that banks will have to cancel, suspend or cut dividends. During a period of low-cost or free loans from governments and regulators to banks, it is difficult to envisage that regulators would sanction these very same banks to provide most of their earnings to shareholders. There are varying degrees of risk depending on payout ratios. Several banks around the world have reported dividend payout ratios at 70% or higher. There is more to lose at these banks, than others and this could be another source of concern, other than credit and liquidity risk. Australia’s banks seem to have all of these risks, in spades.

There is risk that banks will have to cancel, suspend or cut dividends. During a period of low-cost or free loans from governments and regulators to banks, it is difficult to envisage that regulators would sanction these very same banks to provide most of their earnings to shareholders. There are varying degrees of risk depending on payout ratios. Several banks around the world have reported dividend payout ratios at 70% or higher. There is more to lose at these banks, than others and this could be another source of concern, other than credit and liquidity risk. Australia’s banks seem to have all of these risks, in spades.

After the closing of books for end of calendar year 2019, there is a material event: coronavirus. Most of Asia’s banks have not yet reported results for the period, including any in China, Hong Kong and Singapore. We would expect that auditors or banks themselves, force commentary and disclosure on pending risks. This should show up in loan loss reserve build, e.g. higher credit costs. It is possible to show up in higher loss given default (LGD) or probability of default (PD) for some loan buckets. It would be wrong to assume that the quarter that recently ended will be robust, as it does not include January and February. Besides, conditions were far from strong in the first place: HK protests is just one reason.

After the closing of books for end of calendar year 2019, there is a material event: coronavirus. Most of Asia’s banks have not yet reported results for the period, including any in China, Hong Kong and Singapore. We would expect that auditors or banks themselves, force commentary and disclosure on pending risks. This should show up in loan loss reserve build, e.g. higher credit costs. It is possible to show up in higher loss given default (LGD) or probability of default (PD) for some loan buckets. It would be wrong to assume that the quarter that recently ended will be robust, as it does not include January and February. Besides, conditions were far from strong in the first place: HK protests is just one reason.

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Australia's ASIC releases the aggregated short position data four business days after the reporting day. Data in this insight is up to 5th June, published on the12th June.</li>
<li>The largest industry net increase in the past week was just A$128mn into "Broader Retail"; the largest industry net decrease was A$828mn out of "Banks". Net shorts decreased A$1.8bn week-on-week.
</li>
<li>Companies mentioned in this regular weekly report include: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pro-medicus-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13516:1" rel="noopener">Pro Medicus Ltd (PME AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/droneshield-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30509:1" rel="noopener">DroneShield Ltd (DRO AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/4dmedical-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30789:1" rel="noopener">4DMedical (4DX AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/immutep-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19671:1" rel="noopener">Immutep (IMM AU)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mayne-pharma-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:757:1" rel="noopener">Mayne Pharma (MYX AU)</a>.</li>
</ul>


Australia's ASIC releases the aggregated short position data four business days after the reporting day. Data in this insight is up to 5th June, published on the12th June.
The largest industry net increase in the past week was just A$128mn into "Broader Retail"; the largest industry net decrease was A$828mn out of "Banks". Net shorts decreased A$1.8bn week-on-week.

Companies mentioned in this regular weekly report include: Pro Medicus Ltd (PME AU), DroneShield Ltd (DRO AU), 4DMedical (4DX AU), Immutep (IMM AU), and Mayne Pharma (MYX AU).


Aussie Shorts [5 June 2026]: Pro Medicus, DroneShield, 4DMedical, Immutep, Mayne Pharma

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Jun 5th (reported today). The aggregated short interest was USD47.8bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Pro Medicus, Northern Star Resources, Wesfarmers, Computershare, NEWMONT.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Jun 5th (reported today). The aggregated short interest was USD47.8bn.
We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Pro Medicus, Northern Star Resources, Wesfarmers, Computershare, NEWMONT.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Jun 4th): Pro Medicus, Northern Star Resources, Wesfarmers, Computershare

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

The probability for a breakout for global equities (MSCI ACWI) has increased in the past week based on several positive technical developments which we highlight below. Still, there are several indicators that continue to tell us we are not yet out of the woods. In this report we outline key technical levels and drivers across major markets, and highlight attractive set ups in the following areas: European &amp; UK Banks, Exchanges/Markets, Asset Managers, and Insurance, Major Autos and Communications.

The probability for a breakout for global equities (MSCI ACWI) has increased in the past week based on several positive technical developments which we highlight below. Still, there are several indicators that continue to tell us we are not yet out of the woods. In this report we outline key technical levels and drivers across major markets, and highlight attractive set ups in the following areas: European &amp; UK Banks, Exchanges/Markets, Asset Managers, and Insurance, Major Autos and Communications.

Global Equity Strategy: Bullish Breakout Probability on the Rise

Australia

Westpac Banking Corporation offers general and savings banking services.  The Company provides investment portfolio management and advice, insurance services,  consumer finance, and money market services among other services.  Westpac Banking Corp. serves individuals, businesses, and corporations worldwide.

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Westpac Banking Corp Sp Adr (WBK US)

Global Banks – Dividend Risk

There is risk that banks will have to cancel, suspend or cut dividends. During a period of low-cost or free loans from governments and regulators...

Daniel Tabbush

Asian Banks – Material Event

After the closing of books for end of calendar year 2019, there is a material event: coronavirus. Most of Asia’s banks have not yet reported...

Daniel Tabbush

Aussie Shorts [5 June 2026]: Pro Medicus, DroneShield, 4DMedical, Immutep, Mayne Pharma

Companies mentioned in this regular weekly report include: Pro Medicus, DroneShield, 4DMedical, Immutep, and Mayne Pharma. Net shorts decreased...

David Blennerhassett

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Jun 4th): Pro Medicus, Northern Star Resources, Wesfarmers, Computershare

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Pro Medicus, Northern Star Resources, Wesfarmers,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Global Equity Strategy: Bullish Breakout Probability on the Rise

The probability for a breakout for global equities (MSCI ACWI) has increased in the past week based on several positive technical developments...

Vermilion Research

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