HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sichuan-kelun-biotech-biopharm" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40071:1" rel="noopener">Sichuan Kelun-Biotech Bio (6990 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/techtronic-industries-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4561:1" rel="noopener">Techtronic Ind. (669 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vesync" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31067:1" rel="noopener">Vesync (2148 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chervon-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35309:1" rel="noopener">Chervon Hldgs (2285 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wuxi-apptec-co-ltd-bf4a1265-beef-48b6-b82d-29308426030f" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27795:1" rel="noopener">WuXi AppTec (2359 HK)</a> have a very high reliance on the US market.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vtech-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18812:1" rel="noopener">Vtech Hldgs (303 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsonite-international-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12790:1" rel="noopener">Samsonite (1910 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haier-smart-home-co-ltd-b3ef445f-0f54-4586-8c58-9073de98d60e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31105:1" rel="noopener">Haier Smart Home (6690 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tcl-multimedia-technology" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15654:1" rel="noopener">Tcl Multimedia (1070 HK)</a> ranked lower on the list, but consumer cutbacks will have a bigger impact. </li>
<li>The spillover effect of a US recession to other countries will pressurise companies that have low direct exposure, like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/orient-overseas-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:801:1" rel="noopener">Orient Overseas International (316 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/prada-s-p-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:889:1" rel="noopener">Prada S.P.A. (1913 HK)</a>.</li>
</ul>



Sichuan Kelun-Biotech Bio (6990 HK), Techtronic Ind. (669 HK), Vesync (2148 HK), Chervon Hldgs (2285 HK), and WuXi AppTec (2359 HK) have a very high reliance on the US market.

Vtech Hldgs (303 HK), Samsonite (1910 HK), Haier Smart Home (6690 HK), and Tcl Multimedia (1070 HK) ranked lower on the list, but consumer cutbacks will have a bigger impact. 
The spillover effect of a US recession to other countries will pressurise companies that have low direct exposure, like Orient Overseas International (316 HK) and Prada S.P.A. (1913 HK).


China & HK Strategy: Who Are the Victims of a US Recession?

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Earnings for Q3 2023 came in at 17.5 mn HKD up 5% YoY, about 15% below our expectations due to closure costs incurred on some restaurants in November. </li>
<li>The company added four restaurants in December 2022 which should result in strong revenue growth in January 2023. We expect monthly revenue to surpass HKD 80 mn. </li>
<li>Post the recent rally, the stock trades at 8.2x/5.2x FY23e/24e, with a 7.3%/11.5% FY23e/24e dividend yield assuming a 60% payout. We see this as an extremely cheap HK recovery play. </li>
</ul>


Earnings for Q3 2023 came in at 17.5 mn HKD up 5% YoY, about 15% below our expectations due to closure costs incurred on some restaurants in November. 
The company added four restaurants in December 2022 which should result in strong revenue growth in January 2023. We expect monthly revenue to surpass HKD 80 mn. 
Post the recent rally, the stock trades at 8.2x/5.2x FY23e/24e, with a 7.3%/11.5% FY23e/24e dividend yield assuming a 60% payout. We see this as an extremely cheap HK recovery play. 


Taste Gourmet: Encouraging 3Q 2023, Super Set Up for Q4.

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The Hong Kong Alpha portfolio returned -2.89% in November versus +1.72% for its benchmark index. The HK Alpha portfolio has outperformed Hong Kong indexes by 33% to 45% since inception.</li>
<li>The portfolio continues to generate 57% of its returns from alpha (idiosyncratic returns) while maintaining a Sharpe ratio of 2.19 YTD.</li>
<li>We have sold positions in the materials and industrials sectors and added positions in telecom, gold, and insurance industries at the end of November.</li>
</ul>


The Hong Kong Alpha portfolio returned -2.89% in November versus +1.72% for its benchmark index. The HK Alpha portfolio has outperformed Hong Kong indexes by 33% to 45% since inception.
The portfolio continues to generate 57% of its returns from alpha (idiosyncratic returns) while maintaining a Sharpe ratio of 2.19 YTD.
We have sold positions in the materials and industrials sectors and added positions in telecom, gold, and insurance industries at the end of November.


HONG KONG ALPHA PORTFOLIO: (November 2025)

<ul>
<li>In the last 4 weeks, the HSI constituents with the highest yields have gained 3-4%, while the lowest-yielding ones have lost an average of 4%. </li>
<li>The top 15 high-yield constituents will deliver an average yield of 6.2% for FY26. The number increased to 25 when we include those at over 5%.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-mobile-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27:1" rel="noopener">China Mobile (941 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cnooc-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:175:1" rel="noopener">CNOOC Ltd (883 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haidilao-international-holding" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27044:1" rel="noopener">Haidilao International Holding (6862 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-unicom-hong-kong-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1016:1" rel="noopener">China Unicom Hong Kong (762 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/power-assets-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:788:1" rel="noopener">Power Assets Holdings (6 HK)</a> also have net cash. </li>
</ul>


In the last 4 weeks, the HSI constituents with the highest yields have gained 3-4%, while the lowest-yielding ones have lost an average of 4%. 
The top 15 high-yield constituents will deliver an average yield of 6.2% for FY26. The number increased to 25 when we include those at over 5%.

China Mobile (941 HK), CNOOC Ltd (883 HK), Haidilao International Holding (6862 HK), China Unicom Hong Kong (762 HK), and Power Assets Holdings (6 HK) also have net cash. 


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anjoy-foods-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44280:1" rel="noopener">Anjoy Foods Group (2648 HK)</a>'s rally since reporting 3Q25 results is prompted by solid revenue and margin recovery. Its HA discount has narrowed 6.1pp from IPO. </li>
<li>Sales model and geographical optimisation has driven business outlook. With projected EPS CAGR of 10.4%, it is now in line with the sector momentum.</li>
<li>Its PEG of 1.4x is below peer's average of 1.9x. With net cash equalling 15.1% of its share price, it can deliver a decent 5.4% FY26F dividend yield.</li>
</ul>



Anjoy Foods Group (2648 HK)'s rally since reporting 3Q25 results is prompted by solid revenue and margin recovery. Its HA discount has narrowed 6.1pp from IPO. 
Sales model and geographical optimisation has driven business outlook. With projected EPS CAGR of 10.4%, it is now in line with the sector momentum.
Its PEG of 1.4x is below peer's average of 1.9x. With net cash equalling 15.1% of its share price, it can deliver a decent 5.4% FY26F dividend yield.


Anjoy Foods Group (2648 HK): The Start or the End of a Rally?

Hong Kong

WH Group Limited operates as a holdings company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides meat processing services, supplies chilled meat, meat products, and other related products.

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WH Group (288 HK)

China & HK Strategy: Who Are the Victims of a US Recession?

Reliance on the US market varies among HK-listed companies, with some having high direct exposure to a recession. Those with low direct exposure...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Taste Gourmet: Encouraging 3Q 2023, Super Set Up for Q4.

Taste Gourmet trades at 8.2x/5.2x FY23e/24e, with a 7.3%/11.5% FY23e/24e dividend yield assuming a 60% payout. We see this as an extremely cheap HK...

Sameer Taneja

HONG KONG ALPHA PORTFOLIO: (November 2025)

The Hong Kong Alpha portfolio returned -2.89% in November versus +1.72% for its benchmark index. The HK Alpha portfolio has outperformed Hong Kong...

David Mudd

HK Strategy: Focusing Back on Yields

High-yield HSI constituents have outperformed low-yield ones in the last 4 weeks, reversing the pattern this year. The top 15 will deliver a 6.2%...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Anjoy Foods Group (2648 HK): The Start or the End of a Rally?

Anjoy's strong revenue and margin recovery for 3Q25 drive the post-results rally. The improved earnings projection will support a narrower...

Osbert Tang, CFA

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China & HK Strategy: Who Are the Victims of a US Recession?

​Reliance on the US market varies among HK-listed companies, with some having high direct exposure to a recession. Those with low direct exposure...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Taste Gourmet: Encouraging 3Q 2023, Super Set Up for Q4.

Taste Gourmet trades at 8.2x/5.2x FY23e/24e, with a 7.3%/11.5% FY23e/24e dividend yield assuming a 60% payout. We see this as an extremely cheap HK...

Sameer Taneja

HONG KONG ALPHA PORTFOLIO: (November 2025)

The Hong Kong Alpha portfolio returned -2.89% in November versus +1.72% for its benchmark index. The HK Alpha portfolio has outperformed Hong Kong...

David Mudd

HK Strategy: Focusing Back on Yields

​High-yield HSI constituents have outperformed low-yield ones in the last 4 weeks, reversing the pattern this year. The top 15 will deliver a 6.2%...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Anjoy Foods Group (2648 HK): The Start or the End of a Rally?

​Anjoy's strong revenue and margin recovery for 3Q25 drive the post-results rally. The improved earnings projection will support a narrower...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Reliance on the US market varies among HK-listed companies, with some having high direct exposure to a recession. Those with low direct exposure...

High-yield HSI constituents have outperformed low-yield ones in the last 4 weeks, reversing the pattern this year. The top 15 will deliver a 6.2%...

Anjoy's strong revenue and margin recovery for 3Q25 drive the post-results rally. The improved earnings projection will support a narrower...