IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Maki-San likely holds around 28% of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/base-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28353:1" rel="noopener">BASE Inc (4477 JP)</a>, targets over 30% via tender and no longer backs SBI. With shares 17% above terms, SBI cannot succeed at JPY340.</li>
<li>SBI likely needs JPY420–440 to beat a potential Maki tender. A token bump won’t work, so a small fill or walk-away may make more economic sense.</li>
<li>At the last close (JPY399), the risk/reward is unattractive. Based on a scenario analysis of the estimated prorated value, the upside is about 6% against a 12–20% downside.</li>
</ul>


Maki-San likely holds around 28% of BASE Inc (4477 JP), targets over 30% via tender and no longer backs SBI. With shares 17% above terms, SBI cannot succeed at JPY340.
SBI likely needs JPY420–440 to beat a potential Maki tender. A token bump won’t work, so a small fill or walk-away may make more economic sense.
At the last close (JPY399), the risk/reward is unattractive. Based on a scenario analysis of the estimated prorated value, the upside is about 6% against a 12–20% downside.


BASE (4477 JP): Maki-San Forces SBI’s Hand, but the Upside Is Largely Priced In

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/base-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28353:1" rel="noopener">BASE Inc (4477 JP)</a> disclosed a "<em>difference of views</em>" with Maki-san, who says management ignored the cost of his trading restrictions; he would resume buying from 2 October, targeting over 30%.</li>
<li>With Maki buying at JPY370+, shares trading above terms and the 25% listing floor limiting supply, SBI faces a shortfall at JPY340, and a bump looks inevitable.</li>
<li>SBI likely needs about JPY420 to beat a potential Maki tender, but negotiating with Maki or accepting a small fill (SBI has no minimum) may make more sense.</li>
</ul>



BASE Inc (4477 JP) disclosed a "difference of views" with Maki-san, who says management ignored the cost of his trading restrictions; he would resume buying from 2 October, targeting over 30%.
With Maki buying at JPY370+, shares trading above terms and the 25% listing floor limiting supply, SBI faces a shortfall at JPY340, and a bump looks inevitable.
SBI likely needs about JPY420 to beat a potential Maki tender, but negotiating with Maki or accepting a small fill (SBI has no minimum) may make more sense.


BASE (4477 JP): Maki's Return Leaves SBI to Bump Big or Bargain

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our outlook remains bullish on MSCI ACWI. Discussed in latest Int’l Compass (1/9/2025) how viewed the pullback as buying opportunity and were watching for $116-$117 support to hold on ACWI-US.</li>
<li>$116 support held perfectly and we expect upside to continue following 1+ month bull flag breakouts, followed by successful retests of support, on ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500.</li>
<li>We also upgraded Germany to overweight last week, with RS on the DAX breaking out from a 2-year base. U.S. (SPX) and Germany are our only two country overweights.</li>
</ul>


Our outlook remains bullish on MSCI ACWI. Discussed in latest Int’l Compass (1/9/2025) how viewed the pullback as buying opportunity and were watching for $116-$117 support to hold on ACWI-US.
$116 support held perfectly and we expect upside to continue following 1+ month bull flag breakouts, followed by successful retests of support, on ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500.
We also upgraded Germany to overweight last week, with RS on the DAX breaking out from a 2-year base. U.S. (SPX) and Germany are our only two country overweights.


Remain Risk-On With Market Dynamics Improving; 6+ Month Base Breakouts for MSCI ACWI Ex-US and EAFE

<ul>
<li>Recent developments have continued to reinforce our bullish outlook on global equities (MSCI ACWI).</li>
<li>There is no reason to fight this bullish trend, and we continue to expect more upside into the early part of 2024.</li>
<li>Upgrading Mexico to Overweight; Technology Remains Global Leadership; Actionable Themes: 44 individual stock buy recommendations within Technology, Services, Consumer Discretionary, Financials, and Materials</li>
</ul>


Recent developments have continued to reinforce our bullish outlook on global equities (MSCI ACWI).
There is no reason to fight this bullish trend, and we continue to expect more upside into the early part of 2024.
Upgrading Mexico to Overweight; Technology Remains Global Leadership; Actionable Themes: 44 individual stock buy recommendations within Technology, Services, Consumer Discretionary, Financials, and Materials


Upgrading Mexico to Overweight; Technology Remains Global Leadership; Overall Bullish Outlook Intact

Taiwan Stock Exchange Weighted Index / Technical Analysis

Taiwan Stock Exchange Weighted Index (TWSE INDEX)

<ul>
<li>The bear market rally that we have discussed since our Sept. 29 Int'l Compass has managed to surpass our price targets, which were YTD downtrends on the ACWX-US and EFA-US.</li>
<li>As a result of these bullish reversals and breakdowns on the US dollar (DXY) and 10-year Treasury yield, we are upgrading our outlook to neutral.</li>
<li>Buy ideas on a pullback in: Consumer Discretionary, Energy, and Technology/Tech Services</li>
</ul>


The bear market rally that we have discussed since our Sept. 29 Int'l Compass has managed to surpass our price targets, which were YTD downtrends on the ACWX-US and EFA-US.
As a result of these bullish reversals and breakdowns on the US dollar (DXY) and 10-year Treasury yield, we are upgrading our outlook to neutral.
Buy ideas on a pullback in: Consumer Discretionary, Energy, and Technology/Tech Services


Bullish Reversals Continue: TAIEX, KOSPI, AEX, Hang Seng, CSI 300. Buy Cyclicals/Growth on Pullbacks

Israel

Wix.com Ltd. operates and develops a web platform. The Company's platform offers solutions that enable businesses, organizations, professionals and individuals to develop customized websites and application platforms.

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Wix.Com Ltd (WIX US)

BASE (4477 JP): Maki-San Forces SBI’s Hand, but the Upside Is Largely Priced In

Maki-san aims for 30%+ via a tender and no longer backs SBI, so SBI's offer can't succeed. SBI either bumps to JPY420–440 or settles for a small...

Arun George

BASE (4477 JP): Maki's Return Leaves SBI to Bump Big or Bargain

Maki-san is buying BASE again, targeting over 30%. SBI's JPY340 offer will fall short; it likely needs JPY420, but at that price, a deal with Maki...

Arun George

Remain Risk-On With Market Dynamics Improving; 6+ Month Base Breakouts for MSCI ACWI Ex-US and EAFE

Remain Risk-On With Market Dynamics Improving; 6+ Month Base Breakouts for MSCI $ACWI ex-US and $EAFE; U.S. Dollar $DXY and 10-Year Yields $TNX...

Vermilion Research

Upgrading Mexico to Overweight; Technology Remains Global Leadership; Overall Bullish Outlook Intact

Upgrading Mexico $EWW to Overweight; Bullish Outlook Intact on $ACWI; Technology Remains Global Leadership. 44 individual buys highlighted in Tech,...

Vermilion Research

Bullish Reversals Continue: TAIEX, KOSPI, AEX, Hang Seng, CSI 300. Buy Cyclicals/Growth on Pullbacks

Bullish reversals: Taiwan $TAIEX, Korea $KOSPI, Netherlands' $AEX reversing YTD downtrends, while Hang Seng $HSI and China's CSI 300 are reversing...

Vermilion Research

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