Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Taiwan Stock Exchange Weighted Index / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The bear market rally that we have discussed since our Sept. 29 Int'l Compass has managed to surpass our price targets, which were YTD downtrends on the ACWX-US and EFA-US.</li>
<li>As a result of these bullish reversals and breakdowns on the US dollar (DXY) and 10-year Treasury yield, we are upgrading our outlook to neutral.</li>
<li>Buy ideas on a pullback in: Consumer Discretionary, Energy, and Technology/Tech Services</li>
</ul>


The bear market rally that we have discussed since our Sept. 29 Int'l Compass has managed to surpass our price targets, which were YTD downtrends on the ACWX-US and EFA-US.
As a result of these bullish reversals and breakdowns on the US dollar (DXY) and 10-year Treasury yield, we are upgrading our outlook to neutral.
Buy ideas on a pullback in: Consumer Discretionary, Energy, and Technology/Tech Services


Bullish Reversals Continue: TAIEX, KOSPI, AEX, Hang Seng, CSI 300. Buy Cyclicals/Growth on Pullbacks

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Equity Capital Markets

Founded in 2003 by the CEO Anthony Casalena, Squarespace is getting ready to complete its direct public listing on May 19 on the New York Stock Exchange. Squarespace raised $300 million ($68.42 per share) in March 2021 from investors including Tiger Global, D1 Capital Partners, and Fidelity Management &amp; Research Company, valuing the company at nearly<a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-squarespace-funding-idUSKBN2B832O" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> $10 billion. </a>Other major investors of the company include Accel, Index Ventures, and General Atlantic. Squarespace joins a list of numerous technology companies that have become public through the direct listing route, including <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/palantir-technologies-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27728:1" rel="noopener">Palantir Technologies Inc (PLTR US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/roblox-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29697:1" rel="noopener">ROBLOX Corp (RBLX US)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/coinbase-global-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32227:1" rel="noopener">Coinbase (COIN US)</a>. Squarespace's shareholders have registered to sell about 40.4 million common shares with the CEO Anthony Caslena holding a 68.2% stake. Squarespace is a one-stop-shop platform for websites creation, domains, e-commerce, and marketing tools for companies and organizations to manage their social media presence. The company generated sales of $621.2 million in 2020, up 28.1% YoY. Its sales growth accelerated by 31.3% YoY to $179.7 million in 1Q 2021. Although the company benefited from higher sales and gross margins, its operating margins declined from 12.7% in 2019 to 6.5% in 2020, which was caused by higher R&amp;D and sales &amp; marketing expenses.

Founded in 2003 by the CEO Anthony Casalena, Squarespace is getting ready to complete its direct public listing on May 19 on the New York Stock Exchange. Squarespace raised $300 million ($68.42 per share) in March 2021 from investors including Tiger Global, D1 Capital Partners, and Fidelity Management &amp; Research Company, valuing the company at nearly $10 billion. Other major investors of the company include Accel, Index Ventures, and General Atlantic. Squarespace joins a list of numerous technology companies that have become public through the direct listing route, including Palantir Technologies Inc (PLTR US), ROBLOX Corp (RBLX US), and Coinbase (COIN US). Squarespace's shareholders have registered to sell about 40.4 million common shares with the CEO Anthony Caslena holding a 68.2% stake. Squarespace is a one-stop-shop platform for websites creation, domains, e-commerce, and marketing tools for companies and organizations to manage their social media presence. The company generated sales of $621.2 million in 2020, up 28.1% YoY. Its sales growth accelerated by 31.3% YoY to $179.7 million in 1Q 2021. Although the company benefited from higher sales and gross margins, its operating margins declined from 12.7% in 2019 to 6.5% in 2020, which was caused by higher R&amp;D and sales &amp; marketing expenses.

Our outlook remains status quo: we are bullish and we believe the path of least resistance remains higher. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Technology: Semiconductor, Mid-Cap, Semiconductor Equip., Large/Mid-Cap, Semiconductor Equip., Small-Cap, and Software, Internet.

Our outlook remains status quo: we are bullish and we believe the path of least resistance remains higher. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Technology: Semiconductor, Mid-Cap, Semiconductor Equip., Large/Mid-Cap, Semiconductor Equip., Small-Cap, and Software, Internet.

U. S. Equity Strategy: Status Quo: Bullish Outlook Intact

BigCommerce Holdings / Equity Capital Markets

<a href="https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/e-commerce-platform-bigcommerce-sets-terms-for-%24130-million-ipo-2020-07-28" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29196:1" rel="noopener">BigCommerce Holdings Inc (BIGC US)</a> plans to complete its IPO next week. The IPO price range has been determined at $18 to $20. The company plans to offer 6.9 million shares. At the high end of the IPO price (excluding greenshoe option), the company would raise nearly $138 million.Our valuation analysis of BigCommerce suggests an implied market cap of $2.3 billion and a target price per share of $30.9, which suggests a 62% upside to the mid-point of the IPO price range of $19. We are also including BigCommerce in our model stock portfolio. Our valuation is based on P/S, using our estimated sales of $189.4 million in 2021 and P/S multiple of 12x. We used fully diluted shares of 74 million shares to derive our target price valuation. Our P/S valuation multiple of 12x represents a 20% discount to the average P/S valuation of the comps in 2021. It also represents a 67% discount to the P/S multiple of 36.7x for Shopify.

BigCommerce Holdings Inc (BIGC US) plans to complete its IPO next week. The IPO price range has been determined at $18 to $20. The company plans to offer 6.9 million shares. At the high end of the IPO price (excluding greenshoe option), the company would raise nearly $138 million.Our valuation analysis of BigCommerce suggests an implied market cap of $2.3 billion and a target price per share of $30.9, which suggests a 62% upside to the mid-point of the IPO price range of $19. We are also including BigCommerce in our model stock portfolio. Our valuation is based on P/S, using our estimated sales of $189.4 million in 2021 and P/S multiple of 12x. We used fully diluted shares of 74 million shares to derive our target price valuation. Our P/S valuation multiple of 12x represents a 20% discount to the average P/S valuation of the comps in 2021. It also represents a 67% discount to the P/S multiple of 36.7x for Shopify.

Both the cap- and equal-weighted S&amp;P 500 are trading at highs not seen since early October 2018 - a positive indication in itself. Additionally, key risk-on areas we highlighted in last week’s Compass (small-caps, Financials/Banks, and Transports) have outperformed off the recent lows - a welcomed sight for risk sentiment, and confirms out positive outlook. In today's report we highlight attractive bottom-fishing opportunities within the Financials Sector, and attractive Groups and stocks within Large- and Small-Cap Railroads, and Internet Software

Both the cap- and equal-weighted S&amp;P 500 are trading at highs not seen since early October 2018 - a positive indication in itself. Additionally, key risk-on areas we highlighted in last week’s Compass (small-caps, Financials/Banks, and Transports) have outperformed off the recent lows - a welcomed sight for risk sentiment, and confirms out positive outlook. In today's report we highlight attractive bottom-fishing opportunities within the Financials Sector, and attractive Groups and stocks within Large- and Small-Cap Railroads, and Internet Software

Israel

Wix.com Ltd. operates and develops a web platform. The Company's platform offers solutions that enable businesses, organizations, professionals and individuals to develop customized websites and application platforms.

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Wix.Com Ltd (WIX US)

Bullish Reversals Continue: TAIEX, KOSPI, AEX, Hang Seng, CSI 300. Buy Cyclicals/Growth on Pullbacks

Bullish reversals: Taiwan $TAIEX, Korea $KOSPI, Netherlands' $AEX reversing YTD downtrends, while Hang Seng $HSI and China's CSI 300 are reversing...

Vermilion Research

Squarespace Direct Listing Preview

Squarespace is getting ready to complete its direct public listing on May 19 on the New York Stock Exchange. In this insight, we provide the key...

Douglas Kim

U. S. Equity Strategy: Status Quo: Bullish Outlook Intact

Our outlook remains status quo: we are bullish and we believe the path of least resistance remains higher. In today’s report we highlight...

Vermilion Research

BigCommerce IPO Valuation Analysis

BigCommerce Holdings Inc (BIGC US) plans to complete its IPO next week. The IPO price range has been determined at $18 to $20. The company plans to...

Douglas Kim

U.S. Equity Strategy: Be Long & Carry On

Both the cap- and equal-weighted S&P 500 are trading at highs not seen since early October 2018 - a positive indication in itself....

Vermilion Research

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