Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>There are 42 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.</li>
<li>One new deal was discussed on Smartkarma this past week: Singaporean construction firm <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lian-beng-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17636:1" rel="noopener">Lian Beng (LBG SP)</a> announced a voluntary unconditional cash Offer from the controlling Ong family,</li>
<li>Key updates took place for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newcrest-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:691:1" rel="noopener">Newcrest Mining (NCM AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oz-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1138:1" rel="noopener">OZ Minerals Ltd (OZL AU)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/glory-star-new-media-group-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33080:1" rel="noopener">Glory Star New Media Group Holdings (GSMG US)</a>.</li>
</ul>


There are 42 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
One new deal was discussed on Smartkarma this past week: Singaporean construction firm Lian Beng (LBG SP) announced a voluntary unconditional cash Offer from the controlling Ong family,
Key updates took place for Newcrest Mining (NCM AU) and OZ Minerals Ltd (OZL AU), and Glory Star New Media Group Holdings (GSMG US).


(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Liann Beng, Newcrest, OZ Minerals, Glory Star New Media

<ul>
<li>Under the revised proposal, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newmont-mining-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14503:1" rel="noopener">Newmont (NEM US)</a> has bumped the all-scrip terms for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newcrest-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:691:1" rel="noopener">Newcrest Mining (NCM AU)</a> to 0.400 Newmont shares - from 0.380 - for each Newcrest share held. </li>
<li>Including a permissible franked special dividend of up to US$1.10/share, the revised proposal represents an implied value of A$32.87/share. Newmont indicated the revised bid represents its best and final price.</li>
<li>Newcrest has granted Newmont confirmatory due diligence to put forward a binding proposal.</li>
</ul>


Under the revised proposal, Newmont (NEM US) has bumped the all-scrip terms for Newcrest Mining (NCM AU) to 0.400 Newmont shares - from 0.380 - for each Newcrest share held. 
Including a permissible franked special dividend of up to US$1.10/share, the revised proposal represents an implied value of A$32.87/share. Newmont indicated the revised bid represents its best and final price.
Newcrest has granted Newmont confirmatory due diligence to put forward a binding proposal.


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newmont-mining-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14503:1" rel="noopener">Newmont Mining (NEM US)</a>, the world’s largest gold miner, has pitched a non-binding, all-scrip proposal for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newcrest-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:691:1" rel="noopener">Newcrest Mining (NCM AU)</a>, Australia’s largest listed gold company.  </li>
<li>The proposal offers 0.38 Newmont shares for every Newcrest share, or an indicative Offer price of A$27.16/share, a 21% premium to last close. An earlier proposal from Newmont was rejected.</li>
<li>The proposal is subject to a raft of conditions, including granting of exclusivity to Newmont, due diligence, Newmont shareholder approval, and regulatory approvals, including FIRB.</li>
</ul>



Newmont Mining (NEM US), the world’s largest gold miner, has pitched a non-binding, all-scrip proposal for Newcrest Mining (NCM AU), Australia’s largest listed gold company.  
The proposal offers 0.38 Newmont shares for every Newcrest share, or an indicative Offer price of A$27.16/share, a 21% premium to last close. An earlier proposal from Newmont was rejected.
The proposal is subject to a raft of conditions, including granting of exclusivity to Newmont, due diligence, Newmont shareholder approval, and regulatory approvals, including FIRB.


Newmont Proposes Taking Newcrest Back Into The Fold

<ul>
<li>Brookfield and EIG/MidOcean are Offering <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/origin-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:797:1" rel="noopener">Origin Energy (ORG AU)</a> shareholders $9.00/share, a 54.9% premium to last close, by way of a Scheme. The Offer is non-binding and indicative.</li>
<li>Negotiations kicked off at $7.95 for the LNG developer in early August. Exclusive due diligence has been granted. </li>
<li>A firm offer will be contingent on ACCC and FIRB approval. Such a takeover may actually play into the Albanese government's future energy plans.</li>
</ul>


Brookfield and EIG/MidOcean are Offering Origin Energy (ORG AU) shareholders $9.00/share, a 54.9% premium to last close, by way of a Scheme. The Offer is non-binding and indicative.
Negotiations kicked off at $7.95 for the LNG developer in early August. Exclusive due diligence has been granted. 
A firm offer will be contingent on ACCC and FIRB approval. Such a takeover may actually play into the Albanese government's future energy plans.


Origin Energy: Brookfield's Energy Transition Bet

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/origin-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:797:1" rel="noopener">Origin Energy (ORG AU)</a> received a conditional, non-binding indicative proposal from Brookfield and EIG at A$9.00 per share, a 54.9%  premium to the undisturbed price (9 November).</li>
<li>The Board will grant eight weeks of due diligence access and intends to unanimously recommend a binding offer at A$9.00 per share. The offer is attractive.</li>
<li>Regulatory approvals are an overhang and would likely require price concessions. At the last close, the gross spread to the offer is 14.9%.</li>
</ul>



Origin Energy (ORG AU) received a conditional, non-binding indicative proposal from Brookfield and EIG at A$9.00 per share, a 54.9%  premium to the undisturbed price (9 November).
The Board will grant eight weeks of due diligence access and intends to unanimously recommend a binding offer at A$9.00 per share. The offer is attractive.
Regulatory approvals are an overhang and would likely require price concessions. At the last close, the gross spread to the offer is 14.9%.


Origin Energy's (ORG AU) Indicative Offer of A$9.00 from Brookfield/EIG

Australia

Woodside Petroleum Limited explores for and produces oil and gas from offshore and onshore facilities located in Western Australia and Northern Territory. The Company operates numerous oil and gas fields and pipelines throughout Australia, United States and Mauritania and its products include liquefied natural gas, domestic gas, condensate, crude oil and liquefied petroleum gas.

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Woodside Petroleum (WPL AU)

(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Liann Beng, Newcrest, OZ Minerals, Glory Star New Media

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

Newcrest: Newmont Bumps And Granted DD

Assuming terms are firmed, this is done. As this is a cross-border trade, look to short Newmont late in the US day, and buy Newcrest early in the...

David Blennerhassett

Newmont Proposes Taking Newcrest Back Into The Fold

Newcrest will, in all likelihood, grant due diligence to Newmont. I don't expect any FIRB pushback. Look to short Newmont late in the day, and buy...

David Blennerhassett

Origin Energy: Brookfield's Energy Transition Bet

The Offer remains non-binding. I think a firm Offer will get up - but the final pricing may change subject to discussions with the government on...

David Blennerhassett

Origin Energy's (ORG AU) Indicative Offer of A$9.00 from Brookfield/EIG

The offer is attractive. Regulatory approvals are an overhang and would likely require price concessions. At the last close, the gross spread to...

Arun George

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