Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of HSI in the past month.</li>
<li>We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.</li>
<li>We highlighted EPS revision on AIA, LI AUTO, PING AN, ICBC, ORIENT OVERSEAS (INTERNATIONAL), LONGFOR, WEICHAI POWER, BIDU.</li>
</ul>


We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of HSI in the past month.
We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.
We highlighted EPS revision on AIA, LI AUTO, PING AN, ICBC, ORIENT OVERSEAS (INTERNATIONAL), LONGFOR, WEICHAI POWER, BIDU.


HSI Index Earning Revision (Sep): AIA, LI AUTO, PING AN, ICBC, ORIENT OVERSEAS (INTERNATIONAL), BIDU

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The Hong Kong Alpha portfolio's performance was -2.01% in October versus returns of -0.81 for the benchmark and -3.53 to  -8.62 for Hong Kong indexes.</li>
<li>The Hong Kong Alpha portfolio has captured most of the market gains and minimized drawdowns since inception. The portfolio's outperformance is more than 40% since inception in October 2024.</li>
<li>At month-end, we reduced materials and healthcare exposure.  We had already reduced the tech exposure earlier in the month.  We established positions in the utility, textile, and battery sectors.</li>
</ul>


The Hong Kong Alpha portfolio's performance was -2.01% in October versus returns of -0.81 for the benchmark and -3.53 to  -8.62 for Hong Kong indexes.
The Hong Kong Alpha portfolio has captured most of the market gains and minimized drawdowns since inception. The portfolio's outperformance is more than 40% since inception in October 2024.
At month-end, we reduced materials and healthcare exposure.  We had already reduced the tech exposure earlier in the month.  We established positions in the utility, textile, and battery sectors.


HONG KONG ALPHA PORTFOLIO: (October 2025)

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Following Trump's threats on tariffs and pull-out of meeting with Xi, the 5% collapse in the HSI futures implies a heavy sell-off in HK when the market reopens.</li>
<li>The stocks with the best YTD performance and significant strengths in the last month are the prime candidates most vulnerable to the initial collapse. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/semiconductor-manufacturing-international-corp-smic" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14231:1" rel="noopener">Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) (981 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kuaishou-technology" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29725:1" rel="noopener">Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba (9988 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hua-hong-semiconductor-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7201:1" rel="noopener">Hua Hong Semiconductor (1347 HK)</a> are badly exposed.</li>
</ul>


Following Trump's threats on tariffs and pull-out of meeting with Xi, the 5% collapse in the HSI futures implies a heavy sell-off in HK when the market reopens.
The stocks with the best YTD performance and significant strengths in the last month are the prime candidates most vulnerable to the initial collapse. 

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) (981 HK), Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK), Alibaba (9988 HK), and Hua Hong Semiconductor (1347 HK) are badly exposed.


<ul>
<li>HSTECH index is showing increasing strength as Hong Kong continues it Secular Bull Market.  Continued strong market breadth indicates both rotational buying and new investors entering the market.</li>
<li>Southbound buying from mainland investors remains strong after the "Liberation Day announcement.  Mainland investor volume is now 20% of total volume in the Hong Kong market.</li>
<li>China Biotech and Drug sectors were hit as the U.S. administration indicated it may begin restricting import of Chinese-made drugs and to cut off the pipeline of Chinese-invented experimental drugs.</li>
</ul>


HSTECH index is showing increasing strength as Hong Kong continues it Secular Bull Market.  Continued strong market breadth indicates both rotational buying and new investors entering the market.
Southbound buying from mainland investors remains strong after the "Liberation Day announcement.  Mainland investor volume is now 20% of total volume in the Hong Kong market.
China Biotech and Drug sectors were hit as the U.S. administration indicated it may begin restricting import of Chinese-made drugs and to cut off the pipeline of Chinese-invented experimental drugs.


The Heat Is On: News Flow and Sentiment in CHINA / HONG KONG (September 11)

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment.</li>
<li>China (Shanghai Composite) has been a major focus ever since our July 3 report titled "China and Japan Breaking Out," and it's pulling back toward 10-year base support at 3675-3725;buy.</li>
<li>Japan's TOPIX and TOPIX Small indexes remain bullish (BUY), but RS remains below multi-month resistances; we would upgrade Japan to overweight on RS breakouts.</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment.
China (Shanghai Composite) has been a major focus ever since our July 3 report titled "China and Japan Breaking Out," and it's pulling back toward 10-year base support at 3675-3725;buy.
Japan's TOPIX and TOPIX Small indexes remain bullish (BUY), but RS remains below multi-month resistances; we would upgrade Japan to overweight on RS breakouts.


Buys in Japan and Europe; China Pulling Back -- Buy; MSCI ACWI Uptrend Intact

China

Wuxi Biologics is a global Contract Research, Development, and Manufacturing Organization (CRDMO) offering end-to-end solutions for biologics discovery, development, and manufacturing, including complex modalities like monoclonal antibodies and antibody-drug conjugates. The company provides comprehensive services from concept to commercialization, including vaccine CRDMO services. It was founded in 2010 and is headquartered in Wuxi, China.

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Wuxi Biologics (2269 HK)

HSI Index Earning Revision (Sep): AIA, LI AUTO, PING AN, ICBC, ORIENT OVERSEAS (INTERNATIONAL), BIDU

We analyzed HSI's consensus for Sep 2026 and highlighted changes of EPS in AIA, LI AUTO, PING AN, ICBC, ORIENT OVERSEAS (INTERNATIONAL), LONGFOR,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

HONG KONG ALPHA PORTFOLIO: (October 2025)

We made mid-month adjustments to the portfolio due to sudden re-escalation of tensions with the US & concurrent sectoral de-rating. Several...

David Mudd

HK Strategy: Who Will Suffer the Most?

Trump's tariff threats and market uncertainty lead to a potential heavy sell-off in HK, with top-performing stocks like SMIC, Kuaishou, Alibaba,...

Osbert Tang, CFA

The Heat Is On: News Flow and Sentiment in CHINA / HONG KONG (September 11)

HSTECH index is showing increasing strength as Hong Kong continues it Secular Bull Market. Continued strong market breadth indicates both...

David Mudd

Buys in Japan and Europe; China Pulling Back -- Buy; MSCI ACWI Uptrend Intact

Buys in Japan and Europe; China's Shanghai Composite Pulling Back to 10-year Base Support -- Buy; MSCI $ACWI Uptrend Intact. Actionable Themes:...

Vermilion Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

HSI Index Earning Revision (Sep): AIA, LI AUTO, PING AN, ICBC, ORIENT OVERSEAS (INTERNATIONAL), BIDU

We analyzed HSI's consensus for Sep 2026 and highlighted changes of EPS in AIA, LI AUTO, PING AN, ICBC, ORIENT OVERSEAS (INTERNATIONAL), LONGFOR,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

HONG KONG ALPHA PORTFOLIO: (October 2025)

We made mid-month adjustments to the portfolio due to sudden re-escalation of tensions with the US & concurrent sectoral de-rating. Several...

David Mudd

HK Strategy: Who Will Suffer the Most?

​Trump's tariff threats and market uncertainty lead to a potential heavy sell-off in HK, with top-performing stocks like SMIC, Kuaishou, Alibaba,...

Osbert Tang, CFA

The Heat Is On: News Flow and Sentiment in CHINA / HONG KONG (September 11)

HSTECH index is showing increasing strength as Hong Kong continues it Secular Bull Market. Continued strong market breadth indicates both...

David Mudd

Buys in Japan and Europe; China Pulling Back -- Buy; MSCI ACWI Uptrend Intact

Buys in Japan and Europe; China's Shanghai Composite Pulling Back to 10-year Base Support -- Buy; MSCI $ACWI Uptrend Intact. Actionable Themes:...

Vermilion Research

Trump's tariff threats and market uncertainty lead to a potential heavy sell-off in HK, with top-performing stocks like SMIC, Kuaishou, Alibaba,...