Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment.</li>
<li>We will maintain our bullish intermediate-term view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the SPX and ACWI-US are above 6028-6059 (up from 5700-5785) and $119-$121.</li>
<li>$128, $125-$126, and $123-$123.50 are short-term supports to watch on ACWI-US; we will maintain our near-term bullish outlook as long as $123 support holds.</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment.
We will maintain our bullish intermediate-term view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the SPX and ACWI-US are above 6028-6059 (up from 5700-5785) and $119-$121.
$128, $125-$126, and $123-$123.50 are short-term supports to watch on ACWI-US; we will maintain our near-term bullish outlook as long as $123 support holds.


Continue Adding Exposure to China; Short-Term Supports to for This ACWI-US Pullback

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>China biotech has become the biggest valuation driver for the entire healthcare sector based on strong expectations on licensing cooperations. Other subsectors may still underperform due to lack of logic.</li>
<li>The primary market still lacks confidence in long-term outlook. Some founders/shareholders have already reduced holdings and cash out. Valuation bubble may burst when turning point occurs.We analyzed the possible scenarios.</li>
<li>At this stage, stock picking logic may need to focus on three directions. The next stage of the rise may come more from A-share market. We shared our top picks.</li>
</ul>


China biotech has become the biggest valuation driver for the entire healthcare sector based on strong expectations on licensing cooperations. Other subsectors may still underperform due to lack of logic.
The primary market still lacks confidence in long-term outlook. Some founders/shareholders have already reduced holdings and cash out. Valuation bubble may burst when turning point occurs.We analyzed the possible scenarios.
At this stage, stock picking logic may need to focus on three directions. The next stage of the rise may come more from A-share market. We shared our top picks.


What Happens to China Healthcare? - The Soaring Shares, the Turning Point, and the Top Picks

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

<ul>
<li>Sino Biopharmaceutical initiated Phase 1 trial for innovative drug candidate TQB6411 targeting advanced malignant tumors in China. Wuxi Biologics announced that five manufacturing facilities passed the Pre-License Inspection by FDA.</li>
<li>FDA drug advisory committee voted against Otsuka’s indication expansion application for Rexulti. Telix Pharmaceutical received a subpoena from the SEC regarding the development of prostate cancer therapeutic candidates. </li>
<li>Lupin received FDA approval for generic versions of Liraglutide and Glucagon injections. Sun Pharmaceutical announced positive top-line results from two Phase 3 trials of Ilumya in active psoriatic arthritis.</li>
</ul>


Sino Biopharmaceutical initiated Phase 1 trial for innovative drug candidate TQB6411 targeting advanced malignant tumors in China. Wuxi Biologics announced that five manufacturing facilities passed the Pre-License Inspection by FDA.
FDA drug advisory committee voted against Otsuka’s indication expansion application for Rexulti. Telix Pharmaceutical received a subpoena from the SEC regarding the development of prostate cancer therapeutic candidates. 
Lupin received FDA approval for generic versions of Liraglutide and Glucagon injections. Sun Pharmaceutical announced positive top-line results from two Phase 3 trials of Ilumya in active psoriatic arthritis.


APAC Healthcare Weekly (July 27) – Sino Bio, Wuxi Bio, Otsuka, Telix, Lupin, Sun Pharma

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

<ul>
<li>Following a 20% rally in 1H25, the market has built in excessive optimism on the HSI. Historically, average returns for Jul-Oct are negative, suggesting caution is needed.</li>
<li>The top 10 best-performing constituents are sitting on 24x FY25F PER, much higher than 11x for the Index, implying that earnings excitement has been well factored in. </li>
<li>Among the worst-performing ones in 1H25, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-electronic-international-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1927:1" rel="noopener">BYD Electronics (285 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haier-smart-home-co-ltd-b3ef445f-0f54-4586-8c58-9073de98d60e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31105:1" rel="noopener">Haier Smart Home (6690 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/techtronic-industries-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4561:1" rel="noopener">Techtronic Industries (669 HK)</a> look appealing in 2H25.</li>
</ul>


Following a 20% rally in 1H25, the market has built in excessive optimism on the HSI. Historically, average returns for Jul-Oct are negative, suggesting caution is needed.
The top 10 best-performing constituents are sitting on 24x FY25F PER, much higher than 11x for the Index, implying that earnings excitement has been well factored in. 
Among the worst-performing ones in 1H25, BYD Electronics (285 HK), Haier Smart Home (6690 HK), and Techtronic Industries (669 HK) look appealing in 2H25.


Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of September 18th.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for Knowledge Atlas, AIA, Innovent Bio, Beone Medicines, Zj Innolight, Hua Hong Semi, Cspc Pharma, Smic, Yofc, Akeso.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of September 18th.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight flows for Knowledge Atlas, AIA, Innovent Bio, Beone Medicines, Zj Innolight, Hua Hong Semi, Cspc Pharma, Smic, Yofc, Akeso.


HK Connect Flows Weekly (Sep 18th): Knowledge Atlas, AIA, Innovent Bio, Beone Medicines, Cspc Pharma

China

Wuxi Biologics is a global Contract Research, Development, and Manufacturing Organization (CRDMO) offering end-to-end solutions for biologics discovery, development, and manufacturing, including complex modalities like monoclonal antibodies and antibody-drug conjugates. The company provides comprehensive services from concept to commercialization, including vaccine CRDMO services. It was founded in 2010 and is headquartered in Wuxi, China.

Price Gauge
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Wuxi Biologics (2269 HK)

Continue Adding Exposure to China; Short-Term Supports to for This ACWI-US Pullback

Continue Adding Exposure to China; $ACWI Short-Term Supports for this pullback: $128, $125-$126, and $123-$123.50. Pullbacks = buy opportunities,...

Vermilion Research

What Happens to China Healthcare? - The Soaring Shares, the Turning Point, and the Top Picks

Hengrui has entered into agreements with GSK for HRS-9821 and up to 11 programs, with high upfront payment of US$500 million and total amount of...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

APAC Healthcare Weekly (July 27) – Sino Bio, Wuxi Bio, Otsuka, Telix, Lupin, Sun Pharma

Wuxi Bio’s manufacturing facilities passed FDA inspection. Otsuka’s label expansion plan for Rexulti is in jeopardy. Telix got SEC subpoena. Lupin...

Tina Banerjee

HK Strategy: Some Ideas for 2H25

Excessive optimism on HSI after a 20% rally YTD, caution needed for Jul-Oct as historically returns are negative. BYD Electronic, Haier Smart...

Osbert Tang, CFA

HK Connect Flows Weekly (Sep 18th): Knowledge Atlas, AIA, Innovent Bio, Beone Medicines, Cspc Pharma

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlighted flows for Knowledge Atlas (2513 HK), AIA (1299 HK), Innovent Bio...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Continue Adding Exposure to China; Short-Term Supports to for This ACWI-US Pullback

Continue Adding Exposure to China; $ACWI Short-Term Supports for this pullback: $128, $125-$126, and $123-$123.50. Pullbacks = buy opportunities,...

Vermilion Research

What Happens to China Healthcare? - The Soaring Shares, the Turning Point, and the Top Picks

Hengrui has entered into agreements with GSK for HRS-9821 and up to 11 programs, with high upfront payment of US$500 million and total amount of...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

APAC Healthcare Weekly (July 27) – Sino Bio, Wuxi Bio, Otsuka, Telix, Lupin, Sun Pharma

Wuxi Bio’s manufacturing facilities passed FDA inspection. Otsuka’s label expansion plan for Rexulti is in jeopardy. Telix got SEC subpoena. Lupin...

Tina Banerjee

HK Strategy: Some Ideas for 2H25

​Excessive optimism on HSI after a 20% rally YTD, caution needed for Jul-Oct as historically returns are negative. BYD Electronic, Haier Smart...

Osbert Tang, CFA

HK Connect Flows Weekly (Sep 18th): Knowledge Atlas, AIA, Innovent Bio, Beone Medicines, Cspc Pharma

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlighted flows for Knowledge Atlas (2513 HK), AIA (1299 HK), Innovent Bio...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Excessive optimism on HSI after a 20% rally YTD, caution needed for Jul-Oct as historically returns are negative. BYD Electronic, Haier Smart...