HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Our "Buy the Worst" strategy has outperformed the HSI by 1.7pp in the first two months. Meanwhile, the basket of best-performing constituents have underperformed 1.9pp. </li>
<li>More news on stimulating consumptions should be positive to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/budweiser-brewing-co-apac-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28077:1" rel="noopener">Budweiser Brewing APAC (1876 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chow-tai-fook-jewellery-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:549:1" rel="noopener">Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (1929 HK)</a>, and even <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-lung-properties-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:49:1" rel="noopener">Hang Lung Properties (101 HK)</a>. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trip-com-group-ltd-23a341d0-4f63-4175-a8c5-ee990906cacd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36424:1" rel="noopener">Trip.com Group (9961 HK)</a> has been weighed down by weaker profitability on higher costs. Earnings risks may negatively affect <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-hongqiao-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1909:1" rel="noopener">China Hongqiao (1378 HK)</a>. </li>
</ul>


Our "Buy the Worst" strategy has outperformed the HSI by 1.7pp in the first two months. Meanwhile, the basket of best-performing constituents have underperformed 1.9pp. 
More news on stimulating consumptions should be positive to Budweiser Brewing APAC (1876 HK), Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (1929 HK), and even Hang Lung Properties (101 HK). 

Trip.com Group (9961 HK) has been weighed down by weaker profitability on higher costs. Earnings risks may negatively affect Meituan (3690 HK) and China Hongqiao (1378 HK). 


"Buy the Worst" HSI Strategy: Initial Win Against HSI This Year

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our outlook remains bullish on global equities (MSCI ACWI). We've been bullish since early-November 2023, save for a two month period from late-July to late-September 2024 when we were neutral.</li>
<li>We also believe the U.S. dollar (DXY) and Treasury yields have put in major tops, which is a crucial risk-on signal for global equities.</li>
<li>With more and more countries breaking out, we remain bullish as long as ACWI-US is above $116, S&amp;P 500 is above 5770-5850, and EURO STOXX 50 is above 5030.</li>
</ul>


Our outlook remains bullish on global equities (MSCI ACWI). We've been bullish since early-November 2023, save for a two month period from late-July to late-September 2024 when we were neutral.
We also believe the U.S. dollar (DXY) and Treasury yields have put in major tops, which is a crucial risk-on signal for global equities.
With more and more countries breaking out, we remain bullish as long as ACWI-US is above $116, S&amp;P 500 is above 5770-5850, and EURO STOXX 50 is above 5030.


Major Top for the U.S. Dollar (DXY) = Risk-On; Bullish Outlook Despite Near-Term Downside Risk

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of September 11th.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for Smic, Bidu, Hua Hong Semi, Zj Innolight, Xiaomi, Tencent, China Mobile, Innovent Bio, Zijin Mining.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of September 11th.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight flows for Smic, Bidu, Hua Hong Semi, Zj Innolight, Xiaomi, Tencent, China Mobile, Innovent Bio, Zijin Mining.


HK Connect Flows Weekly (Sep 11th): Smic, Bidu, Hua Hong Semi, Zj Innolight, Xiaomi, Tencent

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>India Real Estate, South Korea Financials and Turkey Financials see big increases in ownership in 2024.</li>
<li>South Korea Materials, China Technology and China Health Care saw investment levels decline.</li>
<li>Sk Hynix saw the largest increase in fund ownership, but which stocks saw large decreases, and which look set for a promising 2025?</li>
</ul>


India Real Estate, South Korea Financials and Turkey Financials see big increases in ownership in 2024.
South Korea Materials, China Technology and China Health Care saw investment levels decline.
Sk Hynix saw the largest increase in fund ownership, but which stocks saw large decreases, and which look set for a promising 2025?


GEM Fund Positioning: The Big Rotations in 2024.

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

<ul>
<li>Wuxi Biologics is selling its Ireland vaccine manufacturing facility to Merck for $500M. Astellas Pharma received approval for Vyloy in China for the first-line treatment of gastric cancer.</li>
<li>FDA decision for Otsuka’s label expansion application for brexpiprazole for the treatment of post-traumatic stress disorder will be delayed. EMA has accepted Otsuka’s marketing application for HAE drug candidate donidalorsen.</li>
<li>Samsung Biologics has extended collaboration with LigaChem Biosciences to provide ADC services. Pharmaessentia has announced positive topline results from phase 3 clinical trial of P1101 for Essential Thrombocythemia (ET).</li>
</ul>


Wuxi Biologics is selling its Ireland vaccine manufacturing facility to Merck for $500M. Astellas Pharma received approval for Vyloy in China for the first-line treatment of gastric cancer.
FDA decision for Otsuka’s label expansion application for brexpiprazole for the treatment of post-traumatic stress disorder will be delayed. EMA has accepted Otsuka’s marketing application for HAE drug candidate donidalorsen.
Samsung Biologics has extended collaboration with LigaChem Biosciences to provide ADC services. Pharmaessentia has announced positive topline results from phase 3 clinical trial of P1101 for Essential Thrombocythemia (ET).


APAC Healthcare Weekly (Jan 12)- Wuxi Biologics, Astellas, Otsuka, Samsung Biologics, Pharmaessentia

China

Wuxi Biologics is a global Contract Research, Development, and Manufacturing Organization (CRDMO) offering end-to-end solutions for biologics discovery, development, and manufacturing, including complex modalities like monoclonal antibodies and antibody-drug conjugates. The company provides comprehensive services from concept to commercialization, including vaccine CRDMO services. It was founded in 2010 and is headquartered in Wuxi, China.

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Wuxi Biologics (2269 HK)

"Buy the Worst" HSI Strategy: Initial Win Against HSI This Year

"Buy the worst" strategy outperforms HSI by 1.7pp, while best-performing stocks lag by 1.9pp. Stimulating consumption news could benefit...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Major Top for the U.S. Dollar (DXY) = Risk-On; Bullish Outlook Despite Near-Term Downside Risk

Major Top for the U.S. Dollar $DXY = Risk-On; Bullish Outlook Intact on $ACWI despite near-term downside risk. We remain bullish if $ACWI > $116,...

Vermilion Research

HK Connect Flows Weekly (Sep 11th): Smic, Bidu, Hua Hong Semi, Zj Innolight, Xiaomi, Tencent

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlighted flows for Smic, Bidu, Hua Hong Semi, Zj Innolight, Xiaomi, Tencent,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

GEM Fund Positioning: The Big Rotations in 2024.

India Real Estate, South Korea and Turkey Financials were the winners in 2024, but which sectors led the declines, and which stocks saw the...

Steven Holden

APAC Healthcare Weekly (Jan 12)- Wuxi Biologics, Astellas, Otsuka, Samsung Biologics, Pharmaessentia

APAC healthcare companies got approvals for new products as well as clinical trials. The companies continued with acquisitions and collaborations...

Tina Banerjee

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"Buy the Worst" HSI Strategy: Initial Win Against HSI This Year

​"Buy the worst" strategy outperforms HSI by 1.7pp, while best-performing stocks lag by 1.9pp. Stimulating consumption news could benefit...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Major Top for the U.S. Dollar (DXY) = Risk-On; Bullish Outlook Despite Near-Term Downside Risk

Major Top for the U.S. Dollar $DXY = Risk-On; Bullish Outlook Intact on $ACWI despite near-term downside risk. We remain bullish if $ACWI > $116,...

Vermilion Research

HK Connect Flows Weekly (Sep 11th): Smic, Bidu, Hua Hong Semi, Zj Innolight, Xiaomi, Tencent

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlighted flows for Smic, Bidu, Hua Hong Semi, Zj Innolight, Xiaomi, Tencent,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

GEM Fund Positioning: The Big Rotations in 2024.

​India Real Estate, South Korea and Turkey Financials were the winners in 2024, but which sectors led the declines, and which stocks saw the...

Steven Holden

APAC Healthcare Weekly (Jan 12)- Wuxi Biologics, Astellas, Otsuka, Samsung Biologics, Pharmaessentia

APAC healthcare companies got approvals for new products as well as clinical trials. The companies continued with acquisitions and collaborations...

Tina Banerjee

"Buy the worst" strategy outperforms HSI by 1.7pp, while best-performing stocks lag by 1.9pp. Stimulating consumption news could benefit...

India Real Estate, South Korea and Turkey Financials were the winners in 2024, but which sectors led the declines, and which stocks saw the...