Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment.</li>
<li>Our bullish near-term outlook will remain in place as long as the 5+ month uptrend continues on ACWI-US. So far, the latest pullback is testing the uptrend -- buy/stay long.</li>
<li>We are buying the test of 7-month base support in Europe (EURO STOXX 50). China's Shanghai Composite points to a second chance breakout attempt above 1.5-month resistance -- buy/stay long</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment.
Our bullish near-term outlook will remain in place as long as the 5+ month uptrend continues on ACWI-US. So far, the latest pullback is testing the uptrend -- buy/stay long.
We are buying the test of 7-month base support in Europe (EURO STOXX 50). China's Shanghai Composite points to a second chance breakout attempt above 1.5-month resistance -- buy/stay long


5+ Month Uptrend Support Holding on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US); China Second Chance Breakout Likely

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>There is a pick-up in heavy machinery sales in Jun, benefiting <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lonking-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3944:1" rel="noopener">Lonking Holdings (3339 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sany-heavy-equipment-intl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11104:1" rel="noopener">Sany Heavy Equipment (631 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zoomlion-heavy-industry-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7817:1" rel="noopener">Zoomlion Heavy Industry H (1157 HK)</a>. </li>
<li>Indications are for strong 1H25 earnings, with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guangxi-liugong-machinery-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16809:1" rel="noopener">Guangxi Liugong A (000528 CH)</a> seeing 20-30% growth. 1Q25 results of the peers also pointed to solid interim profit.<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sany-heavy-equipment-intl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11104:1" rel="noopener"></a>
</li>
<li>Despite an average of a 44.6% rally for the HK-listed companies in the sector, their FY25F PER of 10.4x is undemanding. The current consensus forecasts are too conservative. </li>
</ul>


There is a pick-up in heavy machinery sales in Jun, benefiting Lonking Holdings (3339 HK), Sany Heavy Equipment (631 HK), and Zoomlion Heavy Industry H (1157 HK). 
Indications are for strong 1H25 earnings, with Guangxi Liugong A (000528 CH) seeing 20-30% growth. 1Q25 results of the peers also pointed to solid interim profit.

Despite an average of a 44.6% rally for the HK-listed companies in the sector, their FY25F PER of 10.4x is undemanding. The current consensus forecasts are too conservative. 


China Heavy Machinery Sector: Anticipating More Upside

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>We have summarized the selected global machinery manufacturers’ estimates about the impact of US tariffs.</li><li>Most players expect the impact will materialize starting from 3Q should the tariffs be in place.</li><li>Based on the numbers provided, Komatsu (6301 JP, NR) seems to be taking a relatively large hit among the major names. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We have summarized the selected global machinery manufacturers’ estimates about the impact of US tariffs.Most players expect the impact will materialize starting from 3Q should the tariffs be in place.Based on the numbers provided, Komatsu (6301 JP, NR) seems to be taking a relatively large hit among the major names. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Capital Goods - Major global players’ forecast about tariff impact

<ul><li>China Construction Machinery Association (CCMA) released the earth-moving machinery sales data for Mar.</li><li>Domestic sales of excavators / wheel loaders grew 29%/23% YoY, suggesting strong demand in the traditional peak season.</li><li>We believe excavator offers resilience with growth driven largely by the domestic replacement demand, which is less affected by the tariff war. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Construction Machinery Association (CCMA) released the earth-moving machinery sales data for Mar.Domestic sales of excavators / wheel loaders grew 29%/23% YoY, suggesting strong demand in the traditional peak season.We believe excavator offers resilience with growth driven largely by the domestic replacement demand, which is less affected by the tariff war. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Capital Goods - Strong Domestic Sales of Earth-Moving Machinery in Mar

<ul><li>The €500bn infrastructure plan proposed by Friedrich Merz, German Chancellor-in-waiting, is scheduled for parliament approval on 18 Mar.</li><li>The approval of the plan has become likely (2/3 is needed) after winning support from the Greens last week.</li><li>In HK &amp; A share market, Weichai Power (2338 HK / 000338 CH, BUY), being the controlling shareholder of KION Group (KGX GR, NR) which is the major industrial truck manufacturer in Europe, will likely become a beneficiary. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The €500bn infrastructure plan proposed by Friedrich Merz, German Chancellor-in-waiting, is scheduled for parliament approval on 18 Mar.The approval of the plan has become likely (2/3 is needed) after winning support from the Greens last week.In HK &amp; A share market, Weichai Power (2338 HK / 000338 CH, BUY), being the controlling shareholder of KION Group (KGX GR, NR) which is the major industrial truck manufacturer in Europe, will likely become a beneficiary. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Who Are the Potential Beneficiaries of Germany’s Mega Infrastructure Investment Plan?

China

XCMG Construction Machinery Co., Ltd. manufactures and markets a variety of construction machinery including road construction machinery, scrapers, concrete mixers and other related products.

XCMG Construction Machinery A (000425 CH)

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XCMG Construction Machinery A (000425 CH)

5+ Month Uptrend Support Holding on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US); China Second Chance Breakout Likely

5+ Month Uptrend Support Holding on MSCI $ACWI; Bullish Outlook Intact; China Second Chance Breakout Likely on Shanghai Composite. Buying the test...

Vermilion Research

China Heavy Machinery Sector: Anticipating More Upside

Lonking issued a positive profit alert, suggesting that its 1H25 net profit will reach between Rmb590m and Rmb665m, equaling a 29-45% YoY increase....

Osbert Tang, CFA

Capital Goods - Major global players’ forecast about tariff impact

We have summarized the selected global machinery manufacturers’ estimates about the impact of US tariffs. Most players expect the impact will...

CMB International

Capital Goods - Strong Domestic Sales of Earth-Moving Machinery in Mar

We also like Zoomlion (1157 HK / 000157 CH, BUY) given its strategic focus on emerging markets (the US contributes <1% of revenue).

CMB International

Who Are the Potential Beneficiaries of Germany’s Mega Infrastructure Investment Plan?

The €500bn infrastructure plan proposed by Friedrich Merz, German Chancellor-in-waiting, is scheduled for parliament approval on 18 Mar.

CMB International

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