Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The June rebalance of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">HSI</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">HSCEI INDEX</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">HSTECH</a> and HSIII indices will use today's closing prices to cap the index constituent weights at 8%/12%. This will lead to large flows.</li>
<li>The round-trip trade across all stocks across the four indices is estimated at HK$32bn (US$4.1bn).</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/li-auto-inc-3dbe6187-544f-40dd-b9f9-72fba9c0110e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33811:1" rel="noopener">Li Auto</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/netease-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29030:1" rel="noopener">NetEase</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zijin-mining-group-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6358:1" rel="noopener">Zijin Mining</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sensetime-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34319:1" rel="noopener">SenseTime</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-electronic-international-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1927:1" rel="noopener">BYD Electronics</a> are the largest buys while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29043:1" rel="noopener">JD.com</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kuaishou-technology" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29725:1" rel="noopener">Kuaishou Technology</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xiaomi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24409:1" rel="noopener">Xiaomi</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hsbc-holdings-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:516:1" rel="noopener">HSBC Holdings</a> are the largest sells.</li>
</ul>


The June rebalance of the HSI, HSCEI INDEX, HSTECH and HSIII indices will use today's closing prices to cap the index constituent weights at 8%/12%. This will lead to large flows.
The round-trip trade across all stocks across the four indices is estimated at HK$32bn (US$4.1bn).

Li Auto, Alibaba, NetEase, Zijin Mining, SenseTime and BYD Electronics are the largest buys while Tencent, Meituan, JD.com, Kuaishou Technology, Xiaomi and HSBC Holdings are the largest sells.


HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSIII: Rebalance Flows Post Capping (June 2024)

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>Alipay will come out of its placement linked lockup for its remaining stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kakaopay-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29675:1" rel="noopener">Kakaopay (377300 KS)</a> today.</li>
<li>Alipay (i.e. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (9988 HK)</a>) had earlier sold some of its stake in Jun 2022 and Mar 2024. It still has over US$1bn worth of shares left to sell.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.</li>
</ul>


Alipay will come out of its placement linked lockup for its remaining stake in Kakaopay (377300 KS) today.
Alipay (i.e. Alibaba Group (9988 HK)) had earlier sold some of its stake in Jun 2022 and Mar 2024. It still has over US$1bn worth of shares left to sell.
In this note, we talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.


Kakao Pay Lockup Expiry - US$1bn Overhang from Alipay

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Chinese automakers including BYD, NIO, Xpeng, Li Auto, Aion, Deepal, Neta, Leap, and Xiaomi etc reported their May 2024 sales volumes during 1-2 Jun.</li><li>Total sales volume combined rose 38% YoY (ranging from -22% to +234%) and 12% MoM (ranging from +6% to +43%).</li><li>NIO beat, Li Auto in-line, Xpeng could be restocking. Li Auto delivered about 35,000 units (+36% MoM) in May, with about 13,000 units from the L6, which also implied that the other models’ total deliveries declined MoM in May, based on our calculations.</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Chinese automakers including BYD, NIO, Xpeng, Li Auto, Aion, Deepal, Neta, Leap, and Xiaomi etc reported their May 2024 sales volumes during 1-2 Jun.Total sales volume combined rose 38% YoY (ranging from -22% to +234%) and 12% MoM (ranging from +6% to +43%).NIO beat, Li Auto in-line, Xpeng could be restocking. Li Auto delivered about 35,000 units (+36% MoM) in May, with about 13,000 units from the L6, which also implied that the other models’ total deliveries declined MoM in May, based on our calculations.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Auto - May NEV Retail Share to Hit 45%; NIO Beat

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of May 31st.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for BOC, CNOOC, Agricultural Bank Of China, Xiaomi Corporation, Petrochina.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of May 31st.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight flows for BOC, CNOOC, Agricultural Bank Of China, Xiaomi Corporation, Petrochina.


Hong Kong Connect Flows (May 31st): BOC, CNOOC, ABC, Xiaomi, Petrochina

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>SOUTHBOUND was again a net buyer for HK$18.6bn on strong two-way volumes. The top three net buys of the week were SOE banks. Some may be Central Huijin.</li>
<li>Some of this may be driven by the dividend w/h tax cancellation on H divs and by significant H-share discounts, but high-div CNOOC was the biggest net sell.</li>
<li>No end to the inflows, and HK valuations are not at a place where they would hamper continued flows. Alibaba making HK a Primary will spur more inflows over time.</li>
</ul>


SOUTHBOUND was again a net buyer for HK$18.6bn on strong two-way volumes. The top three net buys of the week were SOE banks. Some may be Central Huijin.
Some of this may be driven by the dividend w/h tax cancellation on H divs and by significant H-share discounts, but high-div CNOOC was the biggest net sell.
No end to the inflows, and HK valuations are not at a place where they would hamper continued flows. Alibaba making HK a Primary will spur more inflows over time.


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 24 May 2024); Strong Bank Buying and Tech Selling Continues

China

XPeng Inc. designs, produces, and distributes electric vehicles. The Company designs, develops, manufactures and markets smart smart electric vehicles, as well as finance, parts, and maintenance services. XPeng serves customers in China.

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XPeng (9868 HK)

HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSIII: Rebalance Flows Post Capping (June 2024)

The June rebalance of the HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH and HSIII indices will use today's closing prices for capping. The round-trip trade across the four...

Brian Freitas

Kakao Pay Lockup Expiry - US$1bn Overhang from Alipay

Alipay will come out of its placement linked lockup for its remaining stake in Kakaopay (377300 KS) today. Alipay will once again be free to...

Sumeet Singh

Hong Kong Connect Flows (May 31st): BOC, CNOOC, ABC, Xiaomi, Petrochina

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlight flows for BOC, CNOOC, Agricultural Bank Of China, Xiaomi Corporation,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 24 May 2024); Strong Bank Buying and Tech Selling Continues

SOUTHBOUND flows continue to be strong. This week saw nearly HK$8bn bought on Banks and banks were top inflows. Some of this may be National Team...

Travis Lundy

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