HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Following Trump's threats on tariffs and pull-out of meeting with Xi, the 5% collapse in the HSI futures implies a heavy sell-off in HK when the market reopens.</li>
<li>The stocks with the best YTD performance and significant strengths in the last month are the prime candidates most vulnerable to the initial collapse. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/semiconductor-manufacturing-international-corp-smic" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14231:1" rel="noopener">Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) (981 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kuaishou-technology" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29725:1" rel="noopener">Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba (9988 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hua-hong-semiconductor-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7201:1" rel="noopener">Hua Hong Semiconductor (1347 HK)</a> are badly exposed.</li>
</ul>


Following Trump's threats on tariffs and pull-out of meeting with Xi, the 5% collapse in the HSI futures implies a heavy sell-off in HK when the market reopens.
The stocks with the best YTD performance and significant strengths in the last month are the prime candidates most vulnerable to the initial collapse. 

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) (981 HK), Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK), Alibaba (9988 HK), and Hua Hong Semiconductor (1347 HK) are badly exposed.


Chief Executive Officer, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Chief Executive Officer

Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Emmer Capital Partners is an Asia Pacific focused financial advisory firm engaging in strategic financial asset allocation advice, bespoke thematic research and advising early-stage companies and connecting them to investors. Emmer Capital provides macro-economic and multi-asset investment strategy inputs to institutions, family offices, private wealth managers, private equity, and corporate boards directly and through independent research platforms. Emmer Capital also advises a wide range of startup companies on fund raising and business strategy. Emmer Capital's active engagement with the print and electronic media reaches a broad spectrum of investors across the globe.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Southbound net buying jumped sharply to US$24.2bn in September. This was the highest ever. So was the average daily trading volume of US$20.3bn. Alibaba constituted 40% of total net buying.</li>
<li>Tencent, SMIC, Meituan were bought heavily, while Xiaomi and Pop Mart continue to be sold. Investors are likely avoiding the sectors with disorderly price wars and stocks with super-premium valuations.</li>
<li>In H2'25, the biotech companies, Innovent Biologics, XTALPI and Akeso are Southbound investors' favorites. The buying momentum could continue here as long as the tailwind of frequent licensing deals lasts.</li>
</ul>


Southbound net buying jumped sharply to US$24.2bn in September. This was the highest ever. So was the average daily trading volume of US$20.3bn. Alibaba constituted 40% of total net buying.
Tencent, SMIC, Meituan were bought heavily, while Xiaomi and Pop Mart continue to be sold. Investors are likely avoiding the sectors with disorderly price wars and stocks with super-premium valuations.
In H2'25, the biotech companies, Innovent Biologics, XTALPI and Akeso are Southbound investors' favorites. The buying momentum could continue here as long as the tailwind of frequent licensing deals lasts.


Asian Equities: Southbound Monthly- Below September's BABA Exuberance Biotech Continued to Flourish

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chery-automobile-co-ltd-3fd31c4e-aba6-43af-bdf8-c5a7af8cf9b2" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44473:1" rel="noopener">Chery Automobile</a> raised around US$1.2bn in its Hong Kong IPO. The lockup on its pre-IPO investors is set to expire soon.</li>
<li>Chery Auto is a Chinese passenger vehicle company which designs, develops, manufactures and sells passenger vehicles, including internal combustion engine vehicles and new energy vehicles, both domestically and overseas.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.</li>
</ul>



Chery Automobile raised around US$1.2bn in its Hong Kong IPO. The lockup on its pre-IPO investors is set to expire soon.
Chery Auto is a Chinese passenger vehicle company which designs, develops, manufactures and sells passenger vehicles, including internal combustion engine vehicles and new energy vehicles, both domestically and overseas.
In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.


Aequitas: Chery Auto IPO Lockup - US$8bn Pre-IPO Release

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of September 18th.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for Knowledge Atlas, AIA, Innovent Bio, Beone Medicines, Zj Innolight, Hua Hong Semi, Cspc Pharma, Smic, Yofc, Akeso.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of September 18th.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight flows for Knowledge Atlas, AIA, Innovent Bio, Beone Medicines, Zj Innolight, Hua Hong Semi, Cspc Pharma, Smic, Yofc, Akeso.


HK Connect Flows Weekly (Sep 18th): Knowledge Atlas, AIA, Innovent Bio, Beone Medicines, Cspc Pharma

<ul>
<li>In May, onshore Chinese investors bought US$5.85bn of HK-listed stocks, down sharply from the $19-21 bn net buying range of the past three months. The favorite stocks also changed sharply.</li>
<li>The hitherto Southbound favorites, Tencent, Alibaba and Xiaomi were sold down. Onshore investors’ current favorites seem to be the high dividend yield stocks, particularly China Mobile, CNOOC, China Construction Bank.</li>
<li>Competitive pressures crashed food delivery and EV share prices. But Southbound investors seem to see these share price drawdowns as buying opportunities. Meituan, Li Auto were bought in significant measure.</li>
</ul>


In May, onshore Chinese investors bought US$5.85bn of HK-listed stocks, down sharply from the $19-21 bn net buying range of the past three months. The favorite stocks also changed sharply.
The hitherto Southbound favorites, Tencent, Alibaba and Xiaomi were sold down. Onshore investors’ current favorites seem to be the high dividend yield stocks, particularly China Mobile, CNOOC, China Construction Bank.
Competitive pressures crashed food delivery and EV share prices. But Southbound investors seem to see these share price drawdowns as buying opportunities. Meituan, Li Auto were bought in significant measure.


Asian Equities: Southbound Flows Turning to Dividends and Beaten Down Sectors

China

XPeng designs, develops, manufactures, and markets smart electric vehicles, integrating advanced technologies like autonomous driving and intelligent operating systems. Its product lineup includes a range of smart electric sedans, SUVs, and MPVs. The company was founded in 2014 and is headquartered in Guangzhou, China.

Price Gauge
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XPeng (9868 HK)

HK Strategy: Who Will Suffer the Most?

Trump's tariff threats and market uncertainty lead to a potential heavy sell-off in HK, with top-performing stocks like SMIC, Kuaishou, Alibaba,...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Asian Equities: Southbound Monthly- Below September's BABA Exuberance Biotech Continued to Flourish

Southbound net buying hits record high in September at $24.2bn, with Alibaba leading the way. Investors favor biotech companies in H2'25, while...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Aequitas: Chery Auto IPO Lockup - US$8bn Pre-IPO Release

Chery Automobile raised around US$1.2bn in its Hong Kong IPO. The lockup on its pre-IPO investors is set to expire soon.

Sumeet Singh

HK Connect Flows Weekly (Sep 18th): Knowledge Atlas, AIA, Innovent Bio, Beone Medicines, Cspc Pharma

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlighted flows for Knowledge Atlas (2513 HK), AIA (1299 HK), Innovent Bio...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asian Equities: Southbound Flows Turning to Dividends and Beaten Down Sectors

In May, CN onshore investors moved from tech giants to high dividend yield stocks - CN Mobile, CNOOC & CCB. They saw buying opportunities in the...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

HK Strategy: Who Will Suffer the Most?

​Trump's tariff threats and market uncertainty lead to a potential heavy sell-off in HK, with top-performing stocks like SMIC, Kuaishou, Alibaba,...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Asian Equities: Southbound Monthly- Below September's BABA Exuberance Biotech Continued to Flourish

​Southbound net buying hits record high in September at $24.2bn, with Alibaba leading the way. Investors favor biotech companies in H2'25, while...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Aequitas: Chery Auto IPO Lockup - US$8bn Pre-IPO Release

Chery Automobile raised around US$1.2bn in its Hong Kong IPO. The lockup on its pre-IPO investors is set to expire soon.

Sumeet Singh

HK Connect Flows Weekly (Sep 18th): Knowledge Atlas, AIA, Innovent Bio, Beone Medicines, Cspc Pharma

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlighted flows for Knowledge Atlas (2513 HK), AIA (1299 HK), Innovent Bio...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asian Equities: Southbound Flows Turning to Dividends and Beaten Down Sectors

In May, ​CN onshore investors moved from tech giants to high dividend yield stocks - CN Mobile, CNOOC & CCB. They saw buying opportunities in the...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Trump's tariff threats and market uncertainty lead to a potential heavy sell-off in HK, with top-performing stocks like SMIC, Kuaishou, Alibaba,...

Southbound net buying hits record high in September at $24.2bn, with Alibaba leading the way. Investors favor biotech companies in H2'25, while...

In May, CN onshore investors moved from tech giants to high dividend yield stocks - CN Mobile, CNOOC & CCB. They saw buying opportunities in the...