Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>There are 6 companies that listed in October 2025 where the lock-up for cornerstone investors ends in the next 5 weeks.</li>
<li>The total lock-up expiry across companies is HK$12.6bn (US$1.6bn) with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sany-heavy-industry-co-ltd-8806deaf-04c9-4411-b1ee-92e813b9c5e0" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45955:1" rel="noopener">Sany Heavy Industry (6031 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jst-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39885:1" rel="noopener">JST Group (6687 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cig-shanghai-co-ltd-55f0be8f-8288-4e62-96ac-7bbd6c760e02" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46336:1" rel="noopener">CIG Shanghai (6166 HK)</a> making up the bulk of it.</li>
<li>The cornerstone investor lock-up expiry will increase the number of free float shares between 11-424% and some of the stocks could come under pressure ahead of the expiry.</li>
</ul>


There are 6 companies that listed in October 2025 where the lock-up for cornerstone investors ends in the next 5 weeks.
The total lock-up expiry across companies is HK$12.6bn (US$1.6bn) with Sany Heavy Industry (6031 HK), JST Group (6687 HK) and CIG Shanghai (6166 HK) making up the bulk of it.
The cornerstone investor lock-up expiry will increase the number of free float shares between 11-424% and some of the stocks could come under pressure ahead of the expiry.


HK: Cornerstone/Pre-IPO Lock-Up Expiries in April

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There could be 49 potential inclusions and 25 potential deletions for the Hang Seng Composite Index in March. There are more stocks that are close on market cap/liquidity.</li>
<li>A lot of the potential adds are very recently listed stocks that have a limited trading history. The low free float could lead to price spikes in the stocks.</li>
<li>There are stocks that have a very high percentage of holdings via Stock Connect and there could be some unwinding prior to the stocks becoming Sell-only.</li>
</ul>


There could be 49 potential inclusions and 25 potential deletions for the Hang Seng Composite Index in March. There are more stocks that are close on market cap/liquidity.
A lot of the potential adds are very recently listed stocks that have a limited trading history. The low free float could lead to price spikes in the stocks.
There are stocks that have a very high percentage of holdings via Stock Connect and there could be some unwinding prior to the stocks becoming Sell-only.


HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect (Mar 2026): Many Changes Following Huge IPO Quarter

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Equity Capital Markets

Xuanzhu Biopharmaceutical / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Xuanzhu raised HKD 781m (USD 100m) from its global offering and will list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on Wednesday, October 15, 2025.</li>
<li>In our previous note, we looked at the company's operation, management track records and discussed the IPO valuation.</li>
<li>In this note, we provide an update for the IPO before trading debut.</li>
</ul>


Xuanzhu raised HKD 781m (USD 100m) from its global offering and will list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on Wednesday, October 15, 2025.
In our previous note, we looked at the company's operation, management track records and discussed the IPO valuation.
In this note, we provide an update for the IPO before trading debut.


Xuanzhu Biopharm  (轩竹生物科技) IPO: Trading Updates

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Kokusai Electric  / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Aequitas Research's weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.</li>
<li>On the IPO front, the year end looks set to see a flurry of listings, with the pace already starting to pick up again.</li>
<li>On the placements front, markets were back where they left of prior to the October holidays.</li>
</ul>


Aequitas Research's weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
On the IPO front, the year end looks set to see a flurry of listings, with the pace already starting to pick up again.
On the placements front, markets were back where they left of prior to the October holidays.


ECM Weekly (13 October 2025)- LG India, Tata Capital, Rubicon, Canara, FineToday, Maynilad, Kokusai

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>As with large, clean liquid deals in Asia-Pac, expect <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng (11 HK)</a>'s annualised spreads to widen (i.e. gross spread remains static) as investors hit their full quota early on. </li>
<li>The question is whether <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/soft99-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18486:1" rel="noopener">Soft99 (4464 JP)</a>'s MBO Bidco raises the price to  ¥3,200 saying "let's split the difference", and that would make some people happy. It's doubtful they will.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sihuan-pharmaceutical-hldgs" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33:1" rel="noopener">Sihuan Pharmaceutical (460 HK)</a> has benefited a little from the HK$500mn buyback programme announced last October. But a HK$11bn run up in market cap YTD? This looks stretched to me.</li>
</ul>


As with large, clean liquid deals in Asia-Pac, expect Hang Seng (11 HK)'s annualised spreads to widen (i.e. gross spread remains static) as investors hit their full quota early on. 
The question is whether Soft99 (4464 JP)'s MBO Bidco raises the price to  ¥3,200 saying "let's split the difference", and that would make some people happy. It's doubtful they will.

Sihuan Pharmaceutical (460 HK) has benefited a little from the HK$500mn buyback programme announced last October. But a HK$11bn run up in market cap YTD? This looks stretched to me.


Last Week In Event SPACE: Hang Seng Bank, Soft99, Sihuan Pharma, Dongfeng Motor

China

Xuanzhu Biopharmaceutical is an innovation-driven biopharmaceutical company in China, specializing in the development, industrialization, and commercialization of small-molecule and macromolecular drugs. The company focuses on major therapeutic areas including digestive diseases, oncology, and non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH), with key products like KBP-3571, XZP-3287, and XZP-3621. It is headquartered in Beijing, China, and was founded in 2002.

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Xuanzhu Biopharmaceutical (2575 HK)

HK: Cornerstone/Pre-IPO Lock-Up Expiries in April

There are 6 companies that listed in Oct where the lock-up for cornerstone investors ends in April. JST has a pre-IPO expiry too. The total lock-up...

Brian Freitas

HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect (Mar 2026): Many Changes Following Huge IPO Quarter

There could be 74 changes for the HSCI in March. That could result in 64 changes to the Southbound Stock Connect list and also have implications...

Brian Freitas

Xuanzhu Biopharm (轩竹生物科技) IPO: Trading Updates

Xuanzhu raises $100m in global offering, set to list on HK Stock Exchange on Oct 15th. We provide updated IPO details before trading debut.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

ECM Weekly (13 October 2025)- LG India, Tata Capital, Rubicon, Canara, FineToday, Maynilad, Kokusai

Aequitas Research's weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.

Sumeet Singh

Last Week In Event SPACE: Hang Seng Bank, Soft99, Sihuan Pharma, Dongfeng Motor

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Dividend (Yield)

HK: Cornerstone/Pre-IPO Lock-Up Expiries in April

There are 6 companies that listed in Oct where the lock-up for cornerstone investors ends in April. JST has a pre-IPO expiry too. The total lock-up...

Brian Freitas

HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect (Mar 2026): Many Changes Following Huge IPO Quarter

There could be 74 changes for the HSCI in March. That could result in 64 changes to the Southbound Stock Connect list and also have implications...

Brian Freitas

Xuanzhu Biopharm (轩竹生物科技) IPO: Trading Updates

​Xuanzhu raises $100m in global offering, set to list on HK Stock Exchange on Oct 15th. We provide updated IPO details before trading debut.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

ECM Weekly (13 October 2025)- LG India, Tata Capital, Rubicon, Canara, FineToday, Maynilad, Kokusai

Aequitas Research's weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.

Sumeet Singh

Last Week In Event SPACE: Hang Seng Bank, Soft99, Sihuan Pharma, Dongfeng Motor

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Xuanzhu raises $100m in global offering, set to list on HK Stock Exchange on Oct 15th. We provide updated IPO details before trading debut.