Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yamada-denki-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:641:1" rel="noopener">Yamada Denki (9831 JP)</a> lowering the March 2023 div to ¥12/share vs ¥18/share last year was just weird. And bodes badly. We need a lightbulb moment for a lightbulb dilemma.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/genting-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14210:1" rel="noopener">Genting Bhd (GENT MK)</a>'s implied stub and simple ratio (GENT/ <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/genting-singapore-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:439:1" rel="noopener">Genting Singapore (GENS SP)</a>) are currently at muti-year trough levels. </li>
<li>Buy <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyo-construction-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1176:1" rel="noopener">Toyo Construction (1890 JP)</a> &lt;¥970. The proposed dividend could be in danger should YFO spill the board; but spilling the board to get better governance is a good thing. </li>
</ul>



Yamada Denki (9831 JP) lowering the March 2023 div to ¥12/share vs ¥18/share last year was just weird. And bodes badly. We need a lightbulb moment for a lightbulb dilemma.

Genting Bhd (GENT MK)'s implied stub and simple ratio (GENT/ Genting Singapore (GENS SP)) are currently at muti-year trough levels. 
Buy Toyo Construction (1890 JP) &lt;¥970. The proposed dividend could be in danger should YFO spill the board; but spilling the board to get better governance is a good thing. 


Last Week in Event SPACE: Yamada Denki, Genting, HKBN, Toyo Construction

Travis Lundy

<ul>
<li>In May 2022, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yamada-denki-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:641:1" rel="noopener">Yamada Denki (9831 JP)</a> announced a very large buyback. GINORMOUS - in fact - at 23.9% of shares out ex-Treasury if maximum shares were bought.</li>
<li>So far, YDH is 83.5% through, and at the recent pace, they will end it 8 May having bought 183-184mm shares (21.9% of TSO) spending 86.6% of funds allocated.</li>
<li>That's why the announcement lowering the March 2023 div to ¥12/share vs ¥18/share last year was just weird. And bodes badly. We need a lightbulb moment for a lightbulb dilemma.</li>
</ul>


In May 2022, Yamada Denki (9831 JP) announced a very large buyback. GINORMOUS - in fact - at 23.9% of shares out ex-Treasury if maximum shares were bought.
So far, YDH is 83.5% through, and at the recent pace, they will end it 8 May having bought 183-184mm shares (21.9% of TSO) spending 86.6% of funds allocated.
That's why the announcement lowering the March 2023 div to ¥12/share vs ¥18/share last year was just weird. And bodes badly. We need a lightbulb moment for a lightbulb dilemma.


Yamada Denki (9831) Buyback Almost Done and Odd Dividend "Cut", and a Lightbulb Dilemma

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Retail media in its traditional sense is nothing new, simply referring to the use of advertising in stores, but in modern terms retail media is something far, far bigger. </li>
<li>It is not only a trend in the US, but one that is about to explode in Japan – although in a very different format.</li>
<li>With purchase rates up two-fold in early experiments, the potential for brands advertising through retail stores will be significant with some estimates suggesting a ¥20 trillion market.</li>
</ul>


Retail media in its traditional sense is nothing new, simply referring to the use of advertising in stores, but in modern terms retail media is something far, far bigger. 
It is not only a trend in the US, but one that is about to explode in Japan – although in a very different format.
With purchase rates up two-fold in early experiments, the potential for brands advertising through retail stores will be significant with some estimates suggesting a ¥20 trillion market.


Retail Ads: A New Revenue Stream for Seven & I and Rival Convenience Stores

<ul>
<li>Growth in the Japanese home interiors and furniture markets is set to continue long-term. </li>
<li>At present, just a handful of brands have any major presence led by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nitori-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20386:1" rel="noopener">Nitori Holdings (9843 JP)</a> which continues to expand market share.</li>
<li>With multiple formats, Nitori looks set to continue to dominate but faces competition from unlikely quarters, especially <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yamada-denki-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:641:1" rel="noopener">Yamada Denki (9831 JP).</a>
</li>
</ul>


Growth in the Japanese home interiors and furniture markets is set to continue long-term. 
At present, just a handful of brands have any major presence led by Nitori Holdings (9843 JP) which continues to expand market share.
With multiple formats, Nitori looks set to continue to dominate but faces competition from unlikely quarters, especially Yamada Denki (9831 JP).



Interiors Long-Term Growth in Japan a Plus for Nitori

<ul>
<li>Given the likelihood of more buybacks and pressure on capital allocation and structuring of the renewable energy business, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cosmo-energy-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26565:1" rel="noopener">Cosmo Energy (5021 JP)</a> is more of a buy than a sell.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/olam-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:765:1" rel="noopener">Olam Group (OLG SP)</a> is a tricky beast to analyze. A key issue for investors is valuing Olam, ex- Olam Agri, ex- OFI.</li>
<li>Unloved as it is, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yamada-denki-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:641:1" rel="noopener">Yamada Denki (9831 JP)</a> is still cheap. </li>
</ul>


Given the likelihood of more buybacks and pressure on capital allocation and structuring of the renewable energy business, Cosmo Energy (5021 JP) is more of a buy than a sell.

Olam Group (OLG SP) is a tricky beast to analyze. A key issue for investors is valuing Olam, ex- Olam Agri, ex- OFI.
Unloved as it is, Yamada Denki (9831 JP) is still cheap. 


Last Week In SPACE: Cosmo, Olam, Yamada Denki, Jardine Cycle/Astra, Tianneng Power/Battery, Fujitsu

Japan

Yamada Holdings Co., Ltd. operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, sells home appliances and offers various services for housing, furniture and interior, remodeling, real estate, insurance, finance, and others. Yamada Holdings provides its services throughout Japan.

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Yamada Holdings (9831 JP)

Last Week in Event SPACE: Yamada Denki, Genting, HKBN, Toyo Construction

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Yamada Denki (9831) Buyback Almost Done and Odd Dividend "Cut", and a Lightbulb Dilemma

Yamada Denki/Holdings is cheap. It is 8x earnings and 0.55x book. And that is AFTER a GINORMOUS buyback which has been disappointing. Now the...

Travis Lundy

Retail Ads: A New Revenue Stream for Seven & I and Rival Convenience Stores

Japanese convenience stores have reached stagnation so new sources of revenue to support same-store growth are key. And they may have found it:...

Michael Causton

Interiors Long-Term Growth in Japan a Plus for Nitori

Japan's interiors consumption has been one of the few categories to grow consistently and will continue to grow steadily as Japanese appetite for...

Michael Causton

Last Week In SPACE: Cosmo, Olam, Yamada Denki, Jardine Cycle/Astra, Tianneng Power/Battery, Fujitsu

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

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