Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Previously, we criticized CJ Logistics as unfocused, pursuing deals in low-margin segments around the world as if to fill a logistics <em>'Bingo!'</em> card rather than in-line with a rational strategy</li>
<li>In recent years, investors have punished the company's shares, which have fallen by more than half since reaching a high of over 184,000 won per share in March 2021. </li>
<li>However, with management de-emphasizing its Global segment and focusing instead on the more promising Parcel / E-commerce line of business, there is cause for optimism, in our view</li>
</ul>


Previously, we criticized CJ Logistics as unfocused, pursuing deals in low-margin segments around the world as if to fill a logistics 'Bingo!' card rather than in-line with a rational strategy
In recent years, investors have punished the company's shares, which have fallen by more than half since reaching a high of over 184,000 won per share in March 2021. 
However, with management de-emphasizing its Global segment and focusing instead on the more promising Parcel / E-commerce line of business, there is cause for optimism, in our view


Catching Up With CJ Logistics (000120 KS): With Shares Beaten Down, Management Forced to Refocus

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

<ul>
<li>Secom's share price has surged by 8% following shareholder proposals submitted by Dalton Investments, raising expectations for potential approval of a 10% share buyback and its impact on stock price.</li>
<li>Secom, operating in a mature industry with limited growth prospects, faces challenges in deploying capital and maintaining consistent earnings growth, leading to an accumulation of capital on its balance sheet.</li>
<li>While Dalton's proposals may not gain sufficient support to pass at the upcoming AGM, the potential involvement of other activists warrant a bullish outlook.</li>
</ul>


Secom's share price has surged by 8% following shareholder proposals submitted by Dalton Investments, raising expectations for potential approval of a 10% share buyback and its impact on stock price.
Secom, operating in a mature industry with limited growth prospects, faces challenges in deploying capital and maintaining consistent earnings growth, leading to an accumulation of capital on its balance sheet.
While Dalton's proposals may not gain sufficient support to pass at the upcoming AGM, the potential involvement of other activists warrant a bullish outlook.


Secom (9735) | Share Price Surge Expected as Activist Proposals Gain Attention

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>This past week, nearly 150 companies in Japan announced buyback programmes totalling ¥2.1trln. 3 Tenders, 26 ToSTNeT-3 buybacks (including at least 5 delayed starts). </li>
<li>The median on-market buyback was 2.40% of shares, the average 2.9% (both measured as practical maxima at announcement. Median/Average % of ADV was 7.6/9.2%. </li>
<li>My prediction that this will be a record year for stock buybacks still stands.</li>
</ul>


This past week, nearly 150 companies in Japan announced buyback programmes totalling ¥2.1trln. 3 Tenders, 26 ToSTNeT-3 buybacks (including at least 5 delayed starts). 
The median on-market buyback was 2.40% of shares, the average 2.9% (both measured as practical maxima at announcement. Median/Average % of ADV was 7.6/9.2%. 
My prediction that this will be a record year for stock buybacks still stands.


Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

<ul>
<li>The big parcel couriers, Yamato Transport and Sagawa, announced price increases averaging around 10% last month. </li>
<li>Unlike the last big hike in 2017, the latest round is in response to multiple external pressures such as increased costs and a growing labour shortage.</li>
<li>But the constant growth in e-commerce demand remains the most significant factor.</li>
</ul>


The big parcel couriers, Yamato Transport and Sagawa, announced price increases averaging around 10% last month. 
Unlike the last big hike in 2017, the latest round is in response to multiple external pressures such as increased costs and a growing labour shortage.
But the constant growth in e-commerce demand remains the most significant factor.


Yamato and Sagawa Increase Prices as Delivery Volume Increases

<ul>
<li>Japan already suffers from a shortage of truck drivers, resulting in both higher wages and solutions such as collaboration between competitors.</li>
<li>The shortage is about to get worse as, in 2024, new rules will restrict truck driver overtime putting pressure on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yamato-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2:1" rel="noopener">Yamato Holdings (9064 JP)</a> and competitors. </li>
<li>With both demand and supply of e-commerce now so strong, the change in the law should force new solutions to appear quickly.</li>
</ul>


Japan already suffers from a shortage of truck drivers, resulting in both higher wages and solutions such as collaboration between competitors.
The shortage is about to get worse as, in 2024, new rules will restrict truck driver overtime putting pressure on Yamato Holdings (9064 JP) and competitors. 
With both demand and supply of e-commerce now so strong, the change in the law should force new solutions to appear quickly.


Japanese E-Commerce to Struggle Against New Laws

Japan

Yamato Holdings Co., Ltd. mainly provides door-to-door parcel delivery services. The Company has developed a nationwide delivery system specializing in time-specified delivery. Yamato Holdings offers moving services and other comprehensive transportation services including logistics services for both domestic and overseas customers as well as financial and autoworks services.

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Yamato Holdings (9064 JP)

Catching Up With CJ Logistics (000120 KS): With Shares Beaten Down, Management Forced to Refocus

In this insight we check on CJ Logistics' recent financial performance. Management has de-emphasized the Global segment and put more resources into...

Tracking Traffic

JAPAN BUYBACKS: A Very Big Week

Almost ¥2.2trln of buybacks were announced this past week. Several large ones but 120+ different companies in total. This is the push higher for a...

Travis Lundy

Yamato and Sagawa Increase Prices as Delivery Volume Increases

Prices for e-commerce deliveries are on the rise, at a time when inflation is hurting trade, but demand is likely to mean further pressures on...

Michael Causton

Japanese E-Commerce to Struggle Against New Laws

Yamato owns about 50% of Japan's delivery business and has long been a solid performer but pressures from a shortage of drivers is about to get...

Michael Causton

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Catching Up With CJ Logistics (000120 KS): With Shares Beaten Down, Management Forced to Refocus

In this insight we check on CJ Logistics' recent financial performance. Management has de-emphasized the Global segment and put more resources into...

Tracking Traffic

Secom (9735) | Share Price Surge Expected as Activist Proposals Gain Attention

Secom's share price has surged by 8% following shareholder proposals submitted by Dalton Investments, raising expectations for potential approval...

Mark Chadwick

JAPAN BUYBACKS: A Very Big Week

Almost ¥2.2trln of buybacks were announced this past week. Several large ones but 120+ different companies in total. This is the push higher for a...

Travis Lundy

Yamato and Sagawa Increase Prices as Delivery Volume Increases

Prices for e-commerce deliveries are on the rise, at a time when inflation is hurting trade, but demand is likely to mean further pressures on...

Michael Causton

Japanese E-Commerce to Struggle Against New Laws

Yamato owns about 50% of Japan's delivery business and has long been a solid performer but pressures from a shortage of drivers is about to get...

Michael Causton