Senior Credit Analyst - Emerging Markets, EM Spreads

Leandro Gubler

Senior Credit Analyst - Emerging Markets

EM Spreads

Credit

<ul>
<li>EM spreads hold steady, while LatAm spreads expand 5 bps. </li>
<li>Brazil’s economic growth is expected to slow after four years above 3%, as persistent inflation, tight monetary policy, and limited fiscal adjustment weigh on the outlook. </li>
<li>Minerva Announces Divestment of Uruguayan Asset to Allana / YPF Advances Divestment Strategy to Prioritize Vaca Muerta Development / CSN Cimentos Brasil Finalizes Terms of R$550 Million Debenture Offering</li>
</ul>


EM spreads hold steady, while LatAm spreads expand 5 bps. 
Brazil’s economic growth is expected to slow after four years above 3%, as persistent inflation, tight monetary policy, and limited fiscal adjustment weigh on the outlook. 
Minerva Announces Divestment of Uruguayan Asset to Allana / YPF Advances Divestment Strategy to Prioritize Vaca Muerta Development / CSN Cimentos Brasil Finalizes Terms of R$550 Million Debenture Offering


<ul>
<li>Initiating Coverage on CSN: Overweight on Risk-Reward. We are initiating coverage on CSN with an Overweight recommendation</li>
<li>YPF and Eni Advance Argentina LNG Project with New Agreement Signed in Rome</li>
<li>The LatAm Aggregate Index contracted by 3 bps to 303 bps in the week ending Friday, June 13, 2025, and is now trading 35 bps below its 3-month average.</li>
</ul>


Initiating Coverage on CSN: Overweight on Risk-Reward. We are initiating coverage on CSN with an Overweight recommendation
YPF and Eni Advance Argentina LNG Project with New Agreement Signed in Rome
The LatAm Aggregate Index contracted by 3 bps to 303 bps in the week ending Friday, June 13, 2025, and is now trading 35 bps below its 3-month average.


<ul>
<li>The LatAm Aggregate Index contracted by 17 bps to 315 bps in the week ending Friday, May 16, 2025, and is now trading 26 bps below its 3-month average.</li>
<li>MELI 1Q25: Impressive Growth, Little Room for Further Spread Compression / YPF 1Q25: Margin Expansion and Strategic Progress Back Outperformance View</li>
<li>Suzano 1Q25: Credit Metrics Improve Despite EBITDA Miss, Remain Outperform / Minerva 1Q25: Integration and Deleveraging Underpin Outperformance View</li>
</ul>


The LatAm Aggregate Index contracted by 17 bps to 315 bps in the week ending Friday, May 16, 2025, and is now trading 26 bps below its 3-month average.
MELI 1Q25: Impressive Growth, Little Room for Further Spread Compression / YPF 1Q25: Margin Expansion and Strategic Progress Back Outperformance View
Suzano 1Q25: Credit Metrics Improve Despite EBITDA Miss, Remain Outperform / Minerva 1Q25: Integration and Deleveraging Underpin Outperformance View


<ul>
<li>Cemex 1Q25: Credit Strength Persists, but No Catalyst for Spread Compression</li>
<li>Pemex 1Q25: Upgraded to Market Perform, but Structural Risks Persist</li>
<li>YPF and Globant Sign Agreement to Modernize Supply Chain with AI</li>
</ul>


Cemex 1Q25: Credit Strength Persists, but No Catalyst for Spread Compression
Pemex 1Q25: Upgraded to Market Perform, but Structural Risks Persist
YPF and Globant Sign Agreement to Modernize Supply Chain with AI


<ul>
<li>Argentina’s $20 Billion IMF Deal Could Calm Markets Ahead of Midterms</li>
<li>Pemex Monthly Report: February/Minerva Positioned to Benefit from China’s Shift in Protein Imports</li>
<li>Cemex: Stable Outlook Affirmed Despite Hybrid Reclassification Dragging Metrics/ YPF Launches “Vaca Muerta Institute” to Support Shale Growth</li>
</ul>


Argentina’s $20 Billion IMF Deal Could Calm Markets Ahead of Midterms
Pemex Monthly Report: February/Minerva Positioned to Benefit from China’s Shift in Protein Imports
Cemex: Stable Outlook Affirmed Despite Hybrid Reclassification Dragging Metrics/ YPF Launches “Vaca Muerta Institute” to Support Shale Growth


Argentina

YPF Sociedad Anonima is involved in the exploration, development and production of crude oil, natural gas and liquefied petroleum gas. The Company also refines, markets, and distributes oil alongside its derivatives YPF generates nearly all of its revenue inside Argentina, and has headquarters in Buenos Aires, Argentina.

Price Gauge
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Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
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Dividend (Yield)	0.00

YPF SA (YPF US)

EM Spreads - Weekly News & Views

EM spreads hold steady, Brazil macro update, YPF advances shale pivot, Minerva finalizes Uruguay asset sale, and CSN Cimentos prices R$550mn issue.

Leandro Gubler

EM Spreads - Weekly News & Views

Initiating coverage on CSN with an Overweight recommendation. YPF and Eni advance Argentina LNG project with new agreement. LatAm Aggregate Index...

Leandro Gubler

EM Spreads - Weekly News & Views

LatAm Aggregate Index down to 315 bps, trading below 3-month average. MELI and YPF show growth, Suzano and Minerva credit metrics improve.

Leandro Gubler

EM Spreads - Weekly News & Views

Cemex and Pemex show credit strength in 1Q25, while YPF and Globant collaborate to modernize supply chain with AI. The LatAm Aggregate Index...

Leandro Gubler

EM Spreads - Weekly News & Views

Argentina secures $20 billion IMF deal to stabilize markets before midterms, while Pemex and Cemex navigate challenges and YPF launches institute...

Leandro Gubler

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

EM Spreads - Weekly News & Views

EM spreads hold steady, Brazil macro update, YPF advances shale pivot, Minerva finalizes Uruguay asset sale, and CSN Cimentos prices R$550mn issue.

Leandro Gubler

EM Spreads - Weekly News & Views

​Initiating coverage on CSN with an Overweight recommendation. YPF and Eni advance Argentina LNG project with new agreement. LatAm Aggregate Index...

Leandro Gubler

EM Spreads - Weekly News & Views

​LatAm Aggregate Index down to 315 bps, trading below 3-month average. MELI and YPF show growth, Suzano and Minerva credit metrics improve.

Leandro Gubler

EM Spreads - Weekly News & Views

​Cemex and Pemex show credit strength in 1Q25, while YPF and Globant collaborate to modernize supply chain with AI. The LatAm Aggregate Index...

Leandro Gubler

EM Spreads - Weekly News & Views

​Argentina secures $20 billion IMF deal to stabilize markets before midterms, while Pemex and Cemex navigate challenges and YPF launches institute...

Leandro Gubler

Initiating coverage on CSN with an Overweight recommendation. YPF and Eni advance Argentina LNG project with new agreement. LatAm Aggregate Index...

LatAm Aggregate Index down to 315 bps, trading below 3-month average. MELI and YPF show growth, Suzano and Minerva credit metrics improve.

Cemex and Pemex show credit strength in 1Q25, while YPF and Globant collaborate to modernize supply chain with AI. The LatAm Aggregate Index...

Argentina secures $20 billion IMF deal to stabilize markets before midterms, while Pemex and Cemex navigate challenges and YPF launches institute...