Senior Credit Analyst - Emerging Markets, EM Spreads

Leandro Gubler

Senior Credit Analyst - Emerging Markets

EM Spreads

Credit

<ul>
<li>The LatAm Corporate Index tightened by 3 basis points (bps) to 319 bps in the week ending on Friday, January 24, 2025.</li>
<li>U.S. Treasuries saw modest increases, with the 10-year yield up 2 bps to 4.64% and the 5-year yield also up 2 bps to 4.45%.</li>
<li>Cemex – Mexico Construction Key Indicators, YPF/Vista - Shale Boom Drives Argentina’s Energy Trade Surplus.</li>
</ul>


The LatAm Corporate Index tightened by 3 basis points (bps) to 319 bps in the week ending on Friday, January 24, 2025.
U.S. Treasuries saw modest increases, with the 10-year yield up 2 bps to 4.64% and the 5-year yield also up 2 bps to 4.45%.
Cemex – Mexico Construction Key Indicators, YPF/Vista - Shale Boom Drives Argentina’s Energy Trade Surplus.


<ul>
<li>We recommend to “BUY” on the new YPFAR 2034 at 8.5%</li>
<li>We believe these bonds offer an appealing yield within YPF’s debt capital structure and are currently trading wide relative to the broader LatAm BB and EM BB curves</li>
<li>Pricing is expected today, with initial price talk around 8.75%, and now guided at 8.5%.</li>
</ul>


We recommend to “BUY” on the new YPFAR 2034 at 8.5%
We believe these bonds offer an appealing yield within YPF’s debt capital structure and are currently trading wide relative to the broader LatAm BB and EM BB curves
Pricing is expected today, with initial price talk around 8.75%, and now guided at 8.5%.


YPF to Price USD 9NC4 Unsecured Notes (IPT: 8.75%, Guidance: 8.50%)

<ul>
<li>We are initiating coverage on YPF with an Outperform recommendation.</li>
<li>Improving macroeconomic conditions in Argentina and YPF’s strategic focus on expanding unconventional production and investing in infrastructure, particularly export capacity, are expected to enhance its credit profile.</li>
<li>We favor the YPFDAR (Caa3/CCC/CCC) 8.500% 2029 unsecured bonds, YPFDAR 9.000% 2029 unsecured bonds, and YPFDAR 9.500% 2031 secured bonds.</li>
</ul>


We are initiating coverage on YPF with an Outperform recommendation.
Improving macroeconomic conditions in Argentina and YPF’s strategic focus on expanding unconventional production and investing in infrastructure, particularly export capacity, are expected to enhance its credit profile.
We favor the YPFDAR (Caa3/CCC/CCC) 8.500% 2029 unsecured bonds, YPFDAR 9.000% 2029 unsecured bonds, and YPFDAR 9.500% 2031 secured bonds.


Initiating Coverage on YPF: Outperform Opportunity Amid Macro and Shale Expansion

Argentina

YPF Sociedad Anonima is involved in the exploration, development and production of crude oil, natural gas and liquefied petroleum gas. The Company also refines, markets, and distributes oil alongside its derivatives YPF generates nearly all of its revenue inside Argentina, and has headquarters in Buenos Aires, Argentina.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

YPF SA (YPF US)

EM Spreads – Weekly News & Views

LatAm Corporate Index tightens, U.S. Treasuries see modest increases, Cemex and YPF/Vista drive Mexico and Argentina's economic indicators.

Leandro Gubler

YPF to Price USD 9NC4 Unsecured Notes (IPT: 8.75%, Guidance: 8.50%)

"Recommend buying YPFAR 2034 bonds at 8.5% yield due to attractive pricing and wide trading spread compared to LatAm and EM BB curves."

Leandro Gubler

Initiating Coverage on YPF: Outperform Opportunity Amid Macro and Shale Expansion

Initiating coverage on YPF with an Outperform recommendation due to strategic focus on expanding production and investing in infrastructure,...

Leandro Gubler

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

EM Spreads – Weekly News & Views

​LatAm Corporate Index tightens, U.S. Treasuries see modest increases, Cemex and YPF/Vista drive Mexico and Argentina's economic indicators.

Leandro Gubler

YPF to Price USD 9NC4 Unsecured Notes (IPT: 8.75%, Guidance: 8.50%)

​"Recommend buying YPFAR 2034 bonds at 8.5% yield due to attractive pricing and wide trading spread compared to LatAm and EM BB curves."

Leandro Gubler

Initiating Coverage on YPF: Outperform Opportunity Amid Macro and Shale Expansion

​Initiating coverage on YPF with an Outperform recommendation due to strategic focus on expanding production and investing in infrastructure,...

Leandro Gubler

LatAm Corporate Index tightens, U.S. Treasuries see modest increases, Cemex and YPF/Vista drive Mexico and Argentina's economic indicators.

"Recommend buying YPFAR 2034 bonds at 8.5% yield due to attractive pricing and wide trading spread compared to LatAm and EM BB curves."

Initiating coverage on YPF with an Outperform recommendation due to strategic focus on expanding production and investing in infrastructure,...