Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The HSCEI serves as a benchmark to reflect the overall performance of the top 50 "Mainland China" securities listed in Hong Kong.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes and capping flows for HSCEI index rebal event in December 2025.</li>
<li>We expect three ADDs and three DELs for December 2025. We also estimate there to be US$303mn in one-way flows.</li>
</ul>


The HSCEI serves as a benchmark to reflect the overall performance of the top 50 "Mainland China" securities listed in Hong Kong.
In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes and capping flows for HSCEI index rebal event in December 2025.
We expect three ADDs and three DELs for December 2025. We also estimate there to be US$303mn in one-way flows.


Quiddity Leaderboard HSCEI Dec25: Final Ranks; Three ADDs/DELs Likely

<ul>
<li>The HSCEI serves as a benchmark to reflect the overall performance of the top 50 "Mainland China" securities listed in Hong Kong.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the rankings of potential ADDs and potential DELs for the December 2025 index rebal event.</li>
<li>At present, we see three changes based on the latest data but the rankings can change until 30th September 2025.</li>
</ul>


The HSCEI serves as a benchmark to reflect the overall performance of the top 50 "Mainland China" securities listed in Hong Kong.
In this insight, we take a look at the rankings of potential ADDs and potential DELs for the December 2025 index rebal event.
At present, we see three changes based on the latest data but the rankings can change until 30th September 2025.


Quiddity Leaderboard HSCEI Dec25: Three ADDs/DELs Likely; Sector-Neutral Idea

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Both sales and net profit in 2Q25 were roughly inline, but the OP growth was decent and has accelerated vs 1Q25.</li><li>Going forward in 2H25E, while we are delighted to know that the margin guidance has already priced in the potential drags from delivery war and subsidies, we also recognize that the fairly prudent SSSG in 2H25E and potentially low capital return (e.g. US$ 1.2bn in FY25E, even though the US$ 3.0bn for FY25E-26E is still valid), may disappoint some of the investors.</li><li>However, at the end of the day, we still see limited downside for YUMC (guidance should be conservative enough and difficult to miss, plus the capital return of 8% in FY25E), so we maintain BUY and raise the TP.</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Both sales and net profit in 2Q25 were roughly inline, but the OP growth was decent and has accelerated vs 1Q25.Going forward in 2H25E, while we are delighted to know that the margin guidance has already priced in the potential drags from delivery war and subsidies, we also recognize that the fairly prudent SSSG in 2H25E and potentially low capital return (e.g. US$ 1.2bn in FY25E, even though the US$ 3.0bn for FY25E-26E is still valid), may disappoint some of the investors.However, at the end of the day, we still see limited downside for YUMC (guidance should be conservative enough and difficult to miss, plus the capital return of 8% in FY25E), so we maintain BUY and raise the TP.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Yum China (9987 HK/YUMC US) - Target Kept but Cash Return May Be Limited

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taste-gourmet-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27339:1" rel="noopener">Taste Gourmet (8371 HK)</a> reported revenues/adj profits up 19%/14% YoY for FY25, led by strong customer growth on account of new store openings. </li>
<li>Net cash on the balance sheet was 190 million HKD, or 27% of the market capitalization. The company declared a final dividend of 8 cents (FY: 14 cents, ~7.2% yield). </li>
<li>Despite the strong move following the results, the stock trades at 6.2x FY26e, assuming earnings on an adjusted basis grow by 14% YoY, mirroring their store growth. </li>
</ul>



Taste Gourmet (8371 HK) reported revenues/adj profits up 19%/14% YoY for FY25, led by strong customer growth on account of new store openings. 
Net cash on the balance sheet was 190 million HKD, or 27% of the market capitalization. The company declared a final dividend of 8 cents (FY: 14 cents, ~7.2% yield). 
Despite the strong move following the results, the stock trades at 6.2x FY26e, assuming earnings on an adjusted basis grow by 14% YoY, mirroring their store growth. 


Taste Gourmet FY25: Strong Results, FY26 To See Decent Growth

Analyst

Steve

<ul>
<li>China's catering industry has changed compared to pre-COVID19, where overall average selling price (ASP) is continually under pressure, and customers are increasing seeking value-for-money options due to weaker consumer sentiment. </li>
<li>Yum China's same-store-sales growth could be under pressure if the company cannot raise ASP easily like in previous years.  </li>
<li>Yum China's historical valuation should not be used as a benchmark, given that the growth profile has changed (new store openings reaching a plateau; sustained increased competition; lower ASP pressure). </li>
</ul>


China's catering industry has changed compared to pre-COVID19, where overall average selling price (ASP) is continually under pressure, and customers are increasing seeking value-for-money options due to weaker consumer sentiment. 
Yum China's same-store-sales growth could be under pressure if the company cannot raise ASP easily like in previous years.  
Yum China's historical valuation should not be used as a benchmark, given that the growth profile has changed (new store openings reaching a plateau; sustained increased competition; lower ASP pressure). 


Yum China (9987 HK/YUMC US):  Earnings And Derating Risks Not Priced In

China

Yum China Holdings, Inc. operates chain restaurants. The Company offers pizza, entrees, pasta, rice dishes, appetizers, soups, vegetables, beverages, and desserts. Yum China Holding conducts its business worldwide.

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Yum China Holdings (9987 HK)

Quiddity Leaderboard HSCEI Dec25: Final Ranks; Three ADDs/DELs Likely

The high-conviction ADD Yum China Holdings (9987 HK) could have around 3.2x ADV to buy (US$86mn). It could outperform peer and expected HSCEI DEL...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Quiddity Leaderboard HSCEI Dec25: Three ADDs/DELs Likely; Sector-Neutral Idea

We estimate one-way capping flows of US$267mn in December 2025 which translates to a turnover of 3.4% based on the latest available data.

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Yum China (9987 HK/YUMC US) - Target Kept but Cash Return May Be Limited

However, at the end of the day, we still see limited downside for YUMC (guidance should be conservative enough and difficult to miss, plus the...

CMB International

Taste Gourmet FY25: Strong Results, FY26 To See Decent Growth

We provide an update on Taste Gourmet (8371 HK), which recently released its FY25 results. We summarize our call with the management and our...

Sameer Taneja

Yum China (9987 HK/YUMC US): Earnings And Derating Risks Not Priced In

According to public news, several sell-side have come out with reports adjusting down estimates for the name in the last few days, citing negative...

Steve

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