HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Capital Markets

Shanghai Forest Cabin Biological-Tech / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>FOREST CABIN holds a leading position in camellia oil segmentation, with mid-to-high end positioning and high gross profit margin. But high operating cost will put pressure on net profit margin.</li>
<li>Considering the risk of recession/depression, consumption downgrade and reducing non-rigid spending will be the main theme in short term. 50% YoY revenue growth in 2024 is likely to be unsustainable.</li>
<li>Valuation of FOREST CABIN could be lower than peers. Stock price performance would highly depend on market sentiment, company growth trend, and visibility of profitability at the time of listing.</li>
</ul>


FOREST CABIN holds a leading position in camellia oil segmentation, with mid-to-high end positioning and high gross profit margin. But high operating cost will put pressure on net profit margin.
Considering the risk of recession/depression, consumption downgrade and reducing non-rigid spending will be the main theme in short term. 50% YoY revenue growth in 2024 is likely to be unsustainable.
Valuation of FOREST CABIN could be lower than peers. Stock price performance would highly depend on market sentiment, company growth trend, and visibility of profitability at the time of listing.


Pre-IPO Shanghai Forest Cabin Biological-Tech - The Business Model and the Concerns Behind

Dermavon Holdings / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>The big gap between the revenue proportion of the two business lines indicates that there's little synergistic effect, thus further delaying the formation of the “medicine and makeup complementary ecosystem”.</li>
<li>The weakness in R&amp;D has led to a low overlap in the demands of existing products among the customer groups,making it impossible to match the medical demand through self R&amp;D.</li>
<li>The business model of Dermavon is sales-driven rather than R&amp;D-driven. There are concerns on the Company’s pipeline quality. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dermavon-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45114:1" rel="noopener">Dermavon </a>has not proved its sustainable profitability. Valuation should be lower peers.</li>
</ul>


The big gap between the revenue proportion of the two business lines indicates that there's little synergistic effect, thus further delaying the formation of the “medicine and makeup complementary ecosystem”.
The weakness in R&amp;D has led to a low overlap in the demands of existing products among the customer groups,making it impossible to match the medical demand through self R&amp;D.
The business model of Dermavon is sales-driven rather than R&amp;D-driven. There are concerns on the Company’s pipeline quality. Dermavon has not proved its sustainable profitability. Valuation should be lower peers.


Pre-IPO Dermavon Holdings- Weak R&D and the Lack of Synergy in Pipelines Lead to Unfavorable Outlook

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mao-geping-cosmetics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:41297:1" rel="noopener">Mao Geping Cosmetics</a> raised around US$345m in its Hong Kong IPO. The lockup on its cornerstone investors is set to expire soon.</li>
<li>Mao Geping Cosmetics (MGC) operates in the premium beauty segment. Operating via its two brands, MAOGEPING and Love Keeps, MGC offers a wide range of color cosmetics and skincare products.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.</li>
</ul>



Mao Geping Cosmetics raised around US$345m in its Hong Kong IPO. The lockup on its cornerstone investors is set to expire soon.
Mao Geping Cosmetics (MGC) operates in the premium beauty segment. Operating via its two brands, MAOGEPING and Love Keeps, MGC offers a wide range of color cosmetics and skincare products.
In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.


Mao Geping IPO Lockup - Stock Is up 4x, US$400m Cornerstone Lockup Release

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Sieyuan Electric Co Ltd A / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are 16 changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">CSI 300 Index</a>, 50 changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/csi-smallcap-500-index-shang" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35347:1" rel="noopener">CSI 500 Index</a> and 100 changes for the CSI1000 Index that will be implemented on 13 December.</li>
<li>There are 257 unique names that are adds or deletes and the round-trip trade across all 3 indices is close to US$9bn.</li>
<li>Stocks with the largest inflows and impact have outperformed stocks with the largest outflows and impact over the last few weeks. That could continue for the next couple of weeks.</li>
</ul>


There are 16 changes for the CSI 300 Index, 50 changes for the CSI 500 Index and 100 changes for the CSI1000 Index that will be implemented on 13 December.
There are 257 unique names that are adds or deletes and the round-trip trade across all 3 indices is close to US$9bn.
Stocks with the largest inflows and impact have outperformed stocks with the largest outflows and impact over the last few weeks. That could continue for the next couple of weeks.


CSI300/CSI500/CSI1000 Index Rebalance: US$9bn Round-Trip Trade

Mao Geping Cosmetics / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Behind MAO GEPING’s high profitability, there are hidden risks. One is the potential quality issues from ODM/OEM model, and the other is excessive reliance on Mr. Mao Geping's personal IP.</li>
<li>Without strong R&amp;D capabilities, high-end positioning isn’t firm.With increasing downward pressure in the industry, MAO GEPING would become passive in fierce competition and the industry trend of customers pursuing cost-effectiveness.</li>
<li>MAO GEPING’s valuation could be lower than <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/giant-biogene-holding-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35950:1" rel="noopener">Giant Biogene</a> due to concerns on future sustainable growth prospects and profitability, but higher than industry average due to the strong short-term financial performance.  </li>
</ul>


Behind MAO GEPING’s high profitability, there are hidden risks. One is the potential quality issues from ODM/OEM model, and the other is excessive reliance on Mr. Mao Geping's personal IP.
Without strong R&amp;D capabilities, high-end positioning isn’t firm.With increasing downward pressure in the industry, MAO GEPING would become passive in fierce competition and the industry trend of customers pursuing cost-effectiveness.
MAO GEPING’s valuation could be lower than Giant Biogene due to concerns on future sustainable growth prospects and profitability, but higher than industry average due to the strong short-term financial performance.  


Pre-IPO Mao Geping Cosmetics (PHIP Updates) - Some Points Worth the Attention

China

Yunnan Botanee Bio-Technology Group Co. LTD manufactures and sells skin care and cosmetics. The Company produces masks, toners, hand creams, and other cosmetics. Yunnan Botanee Bio-Technology Group also develops new biology technologies.

Yunnan Botanee Bio-Technology (300957 CH)

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
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Yunnan Botanee Bio-Technology (300957 CH)

Pre-IPO Shanghai Forest Cabin Biological-Tech - The Business Model and the Concerns Behind

Forest Cabin's leading position in camellia oil market could be challenged by high operating costs and potential economic downturn, impacting...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Pre-IPO Dermavon Holdings- Weak R&D and the Lack of Synergy in Pipelines Lead to Unfavorable Outlook

The lack of synergy between revenue streams at Dermavon delays the formation of a medicine and makeup complementary ecosystem. Concerns over R&D...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Mao Geping IPO Lockup - Stock Is up 4x, US$400m Cornerstone Lockup Release

Mao Geping Cosmetics raised around US$345m in its Hong Kong IPO. The lockup on its cornerstone investors is set to expire soon.

Sumeet Singh

CSI300/CSI500/CSI1000 Index Rebalance: US$9bn Round-Trip Trade

The CSI indices (and a bunch of others) rebalance at the close today - it's going to be a big volume day in China. The CSI300 adds have...

Brian Freitas

Pre-IPO Mao Geping Cosmetics (PHIP Updates) - Some Points Worth the Attention

Mao Geping's debut was excellent. As analyzed in the insight, we think reasonable valuation should be lower than Giant Biogene, whose Class III...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Pre-IPO Shanghai Forest Cabin Biological-Tech - The Business Model and the Concerns Behind

​Forest Cabin's leading position in camellia oil market could be challenged by high operating costs and potential economic downturn, impacting...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Pre-IPO Dermavon Holdings- Weak R&D and the Lack of Synergy in Pipelines Lead to Unfavorable Outlook

​The lack of synergy between revenue streams at Dermavon delays the formation of a medicine and makeup complementary ecosystem. Concerns over R&D...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Mao Geping IPO Lockup - Stock Is up 4x, US$400m Cornerstone Lockup Release

Mao Geping Cosmetics raised around US$345m in its Hong Kong IPO. The lockup on its cornerstone investors is set to expire soon.

Sumeet Singh

CSI300/CSI500/CSI1000 Index Rebalance: US$9bn Round-Trip Trade

The CSI indices (and a bunch of others) rebalance at the close today - it's going to be a big volume day in China. The CSI300 adds have...

Brian Freitas

Pre-IPO Mao Geping Cosmetics (PHIP Updates) - Some Points Worth the Attention

Mao Geping's debut was excellent. As analyzed in the insight, we think reasonable valuation should be lower than Giant Biogene, whose Class III...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Forest Cabin's leading position in camellia oil market could be challenged by high operating costs and potential economic downturn, impacting...

The lack of synergy between revenue streams at Dermavon delays the formation of a medicine and makeup complementary ecosystem. Concerns over R&D...