External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>We untangle the “household excess saving” enigma.</li><li>Instead of a silver bullet, we consider it a status-quo in which consumers are confident enough to spend (or invest) beyond their pre-pandemic budgets by tapping into their savings accumulated during the pandemic, after they first normalize their spending to prepandemic level.</li><li>In other words, we believe the use of “excess saving” would predominantly kick-in upon a full-fledged consumption recovery. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We untangle the “household excess saving” enigma.Instead of a silver bullet, we consider it a status-quo in which consumers are confident enough to spend (or invest) beyond their pre-pandemic budgets by tapping into their savings accumulated during the pandemic, after they first normalize their spending to prepandemic level.In other words, we believe the use of “excess saving” would predominantly kick-in upon a full-fledged consumption recovery. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Consumer – From Reopening to Recovery

<ul><li>We expect encouraging 5.1 travel data. According to various sources and news we monitor, air passenger during the holiday is likely to surpass 9mn persons, tracking approximately 110% of the level we saw in 2019.</li><li>Splitting between domestic and overseas travellers, the former will likely grow by approximately 25%, while, for the latter, the recovery could track up to 30-40% of that in 2019.</li><li>By destination, air ticket booking to Hainan grew by 1.5x, and Hainan represented 93% of the travel destination of domestic trips.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We expect encouraging 5.1 travel data. According to various sources and news we monitor, air passenger during the holiday is likely to surpass 9mn persons, tracking approximately 110% of the level we saw in 2019.Splitting between domestic and overseas travellers, the former will likely grow by approximately 25%, while, for the latter, the recovery could track up to 30-40% of that in 2019.By destination, air ticket booking to Hainan grew by 1.5x, and Hainan represented 93% of the travel destination of domestic trips.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Consumer – Expecting Encouraging Data from the 5.1 Holiday This Year

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>With 1 trading day left in the review period, we forecast 10 changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chinext-price-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25483:1" rel="noopener">Chinext Price Index (SZ399006 INDEX)</a> and 5 changes for the ChiNext 50 Index in June.</li>
<li>Passive trackers are estimated to trade around +/-0.5 days ADV on most of the potential adds/deletes, though there are some deletes that will have over 1 day ADV to sell.</li>
<li>The potential inclusion to one or both indices have outperformed the potential deletes by a huge margin in the last month. We'd be inclined to trim positions.</li>
</ul>


With 1 trading day left in the review period, we forecast 10 changes for the Chinext Price Index (SZ399006 INDEX) and 5 changes for the ChiNext 50 Index in June.
Passive trackers are estimated to trade around +/-0.5 days ADV on most of the potential adds/deletes, though there are some deletes that will have over 1 day ADV to sell.
The potential inclusion to one or both indices have outperformed the potential deletes by a huge margin in the last month. We'd be inclined to trim positions.


ChiNext/​​ChiNext50 Index Rebalance Preview: Outperformance Maintained

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

Shanghai Chicmax Cosmetic / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Chicmax’s 2022 performance was ugly, which was mainly due to the weak sales growth in online channels. Without obvious improvement in sales channels, Chicmax would easily reach a growth bottleneck.</li>
<li>If Chicmax cannot transform from a marketing-driven low-end brand to a brand with growth potential that adheres to long-term principles,emphasizes equally on R&amp;D and marketing, it would lose investment value.</li>
<li>Chicmax is overvalued. Its valuation should be lower than that of Bloomage and Botanee. If things go badly in the future, its valuation could be lower than <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-jahwa-united-co-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4266:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Jahwa</a>.</li>
</ul>


Chicmax’s 2022 performance was ugly, which was mainly due to the weak sales growth in online channels. Without obvious improvement in sales channels, Chicmax would easily reach a growth bottleneck.
If Chicmax cannot transform from a marketing-driven low-end brand to a brand with growth potential that adheres to long-term principles,emphasizes equally on R&amp;D and marketing, it would lose investment value.
Chicmax is overvalued. Its valuation should be lower than that of Bloomage and Botanee. If things go badly in the future, its valuation could be lower than Shanghai Jahwa.


Shanghai Chicmax Cosmetic (2145.HK) - Start to Enter a Vicious Cycle

Yunnan Botanee Bio-Technology / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>2023 outlook. Despite a miss in 4Q, we think Botanee is set to recover along with China’s reopening, thanks to its OMO distribution network and an unchallenged R&amp;D franchise that differentiates from peers.</li><li>Our channel check suggested Winona 2M23 sales grew 20%+ on Tmall/ Taobao and 300%+ on Tiktok.</li><li>For its offline business, we still see huge potential to expand from currently 19% to 26% of total revenue by 2024E, when Botanee only penetrates less than 5% of the national drug stores at present.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

2023 outlook. Despite a miss in 4Q, we think Botanee is set to recover along with China’s reopening, thanks to its OMO distribution network and an unchallenged R&amp;D franchise that differentiates from peers.Our channel check suggested Winona 2M23 sales grew 20%+ on Tmall/ Taobao and 300%+ on Tiktok.For its offline business, we still see huge potential to expand from currently 19% to 26% of total revenue by 2024E, when Botanee only penetrates less than 5% of the national drug stores at present.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Botanee Biotech (300957 CH) – ESOP Targets Stabilize Earnings Expectation

China

Yunnan Botanee Bio-Technology Group Co. LTD manufactures and sells skin care and cosmetics. The Company produces masks, toners, hand creams, and other cosmetics. Yunnan Botanee Bio-Technology Group also develops new biology technologies.

Yunnan Botanee Bio-Technology (300957 CH)

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Yunnan Botanee Bio-Technology (300957 CH)

China Consumer – From Reopening to Recovery

In other words, we believe the use of “excess saving” would predominantly kick-in upon a full-fledged consumption recovery.

CMB International

China Consumer – Expecting Encouraging Data from the 5.1 Holiday This Year

According to various sources and news we monitor, air passenger during the holiday is likely to surpass 9mn persons, tracking approximately 110% of...

CMB International

ChiNext/ChiNext50 Index Rebalance Preview: Outperformance Maintained

We forecast 10 changes for the Chinext and 5 for the Chinext50. Impact is not large but these are liquid stocks that are moving. The potential adds...

Brian Freitas

Shanghai Chicmax Cosmetic (2145.HK) - Start to Enter a Vicious Cycle

After Chicmax released the ugly 2022 results, it seems to have enter a vicious cycle. If Chicmax cannot transform into a visionary R&D driven...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Botanee Biotech (300957 CH) – ESOP Targets Stabilize Earnings Expectation

Despite a miss in 4Q, we think Botanee is set to recover along with China’s reopening, thanks to its OMO distribution network and an unchallenged...

CMB International

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

China Consumer – From Reopening to Recovery

In other words, we believe the use of “excess saving” would predominantly kick-in upon a full-fledged consumption recovery.

CMB International

China Consumer – Expecting Encouraging Data from the 5.1 Holiday This Year

According to various sources and news we monitor, air passenger during the holiday is likely to surpass 9mn persons, tracking approximately 110% of...

CMB International

ChiNext/​​ChiNext50 Index Rebalance Preview: Outperformance Maintained

We forecast 10 changes for the Chinext and 5 for the Chinext50. Impact is not large but these are liquid stocks that are moving. The potential adds...

Brian Freitas

Shanghai Chicmax Cosmetic (2145.HK) - Start to Enter a Vicious Cycle

After Chicmax released the ugly 2022 results, it seems to have enter a vicious cycle. If Chicmax cannot transform into a visionary R&D driven...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Botanee Biotech (300957 CH) – ESOP Targets Stabilize Earnings Expectation

Despite a miss in 4Q, we think Botanee is set to recover along with China’s reopening, thanks to its OMO distribution network and an unchallenged...

CMB International

ChiNext/ChiNext50 Index Rebalance Preview: Outperformance Maintained