Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

China Merchants Expressway Net / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The review period for the June rebalance is complete and we expect 11 changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-inde" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Inde (SHSZ300 INDEX)</a>. </li>
<li>We estimate one-way turnover of 1.4% at the rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 8.82bn (US$1.22bn). There are a lot of stocks with multiple days ADV to trade.</li>
<li>The potential deletes have bounced off their lows as the market has recovered. But the potential passive selling could see them underperform over the next month.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the June rebalance is complete and we expect 11 changes to the Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Inde (SHSZ300 INDEX). 
We estimate one-way turnover of 1.4% at the rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 8.82bn (US$1.22bn). There are a lot of stocks with multiple days ADV to trade.
The potential deletes have bounced off their lows as the market has recovered. But the potential passive selling could see them underperform over the next month.


CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: Bounce in the Potential Deletes Could Be Short Lived

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Capital Markets

Mao Geping Cosmetics / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>MAO GEPING relies heavily on flagship brand MAOGEPING, with over-reliance risks on single brand.The strategy of focusing more on offline sales channels makes it appear less up-to-date with the times.</li>
<li>Different from most brands, the influence of MAO GEPING largely comes from its founder, Mr. Maogeping, who if reduces his holdings, could have a negative impact on the Company's business/prospects.</li>
<li>Solely relying on marketing and promotion to drive performance growth is not a long-term solution.Lack of core technology and product innovation would limit MAO GEPING’s future development in fierce competition.</li>
</ul>


MAO GEPING relies heavily on flagship brand MAOGEPING, with over-reliance risks on single brand.The strategy of focusing more on offline sales channels makes it appear less up-to-date with the times.
Different from most brands, the influence of MAO GEPING largely comes from its founder, Mr. Maogeping, who if reduces his holdings, could have a negative impact on the Company's business/prospects.
Solely relying on marketing and promotion to drive performance growth is not a long-term solution.Lack of core technology and product innovation would limit MAO GEPING’s future development in fierce competition.


Pre-IPO Mao Geping Cosmetics - Potential Risks Behind High Gross Margins

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Clarence Chu

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mao-geping-cosmetics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:41297:1" rel="noopener">Mao Geping Cosmetics (1478187D CH)</a> is looking to raise around US$300m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. The bookrunner on the deal is CICC.</li>
<li>Mao Geping Cosmetics (MGC) operates in the premium beauty segment. Operating via its two brands, MAOGEPING and Love Keeps, MGC offers a wide range of color cosmetics and skincare products.</li>
<li>As per F&amp;S, MGC was the only domestic market player among the top ten premium beauty groups in China, ranking eighth by 2022 retail sales.</li>
</ul>



Mao Geping Cosmetics (1478187D CH) is looking to raise around US$300m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. The bookrunner on the deal is CICC.
Mao Geping Cosmetics (MGC) operates in the premium beauty segment. Operating via its two brands, MAOGEPING and Love Keeps, MGC offers a wide range of color cosmetics and skincare products.
As per F&amp;S, MGC was the only domestic market player among the top ten premium beauty groups in China, ranking eighth by 2022 retail sales.


External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Equity Bottom-Up

Yunnan Botanee Bio-Technology / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Botanee made a pronounced come-back year-to-date, reviving Tmall GMV from -59.8% YoY to -6.9% YoY between Jan and Oct, and accelerating its quarterly sales growth from 7% in 1Q to 26% in 3Q.</li><li>Year-to-date shares performance has gone against this trend and, in our view, the free-fall is running ahead of consensus estimates which still looked rather reserved in pricing-in the ongoing dilemma that Botanee is facing.</li><li>These are threefold: 1) when macro headwinds such as consumption trade-down (see our thematic report) and low fertility wish linger (see our Feihe downgrade report), growth outlook among AOXMED (super high-end) and Winona Baby could normalise sooner than expected, and Botanee’s single-brand risk could be exposed further given a full-fledged closequarters competition among brands; 2) herbal-/HA-based functional skincare is incrementally crowded out by the collagen-based. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Botanee made a pronounced come-back year-to-date, reviving Tmall GMV from -59.8% YoY to -6.9% YoY between Jan and Oct, and accelerating its quarterly sales growth from 7% in 1Q to 26% in 3Q.Year-to-date shares performance has gone against this trend and, in our view, the free-fall is running ahead of consensus estimates which still looked rather reserved in pricing-in the ongoing dilemma that Botanee is facing.These are threefold: 1) when macro headwinds such as consumption trade-down (see our thematic report) and low fertility wish linger (see our Feihe downgrade report), growth outlook among AOXMED (super high-end) and Winona Baby could normalise sooner than expected, and Botanee’s single-brand risk could be exposed further given a full-fledged closequarters competition among brands; 2) herbal-/HA-based functional skincare is incrementally crowded out by the collagen-based. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Botanee Biotech (300957 CH) – Headwinds Endure

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Our channel checks and various news sources we monitored suggests cosmetic GMV for 6.18 campaign this year stood at a small decline and reached approximately RMB40bn.</li><li>We argue the broad momentum tracked well to expectation, given only a flattish pre-sale (between 25 May and 31 May). By channel, we observed that livestreaming channels continued to draw traffic flow from marketplace platforms, and this looks to be consistent to the trends observed by our internet team.</li><li>For instance, cosmetic GMV on Douyin increased 70% YoY to RMB15bn.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Our channel checks and various news sources we monitored suggests cosmetic GMV for 6.18 campaign this year stood at a small decline and reached approximately RMB40bn.We argue the broad momentum tracked well to expectation, given only a flattish pre-sale (between 25 May and 31 May). By channel, we observed that livestreaming channels continued to draw traffic flow from marketplace platforms, and this looks to be consistent to the trends observed by our internet team.For instance, cosmetic GMV on Douyin increased 70% YoY to RMB15bn.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Cosmetics – Key takeaway from 6.18 cosmetic sales

China

Yunnan Botanee Bio-Technology Group Co. LTD manufactures and sells skin care and cosmetics. The Company produces masks, toners, hand creams, and other cosmetics. Yunnan Botanee Bio-Technology Group also develops new biology technologies.

Yunnan Botanee Bio-Technology (300957 CH)

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Yunnan Botanee Bio-Technology (300957 CH)

CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: Bounce in the Potential Deletes Could Be Short Lived

There could be 11 changes for the CSI300 in June with multiple days of ADV to trade on most names. The potential deletes have bounced recently but...

Brian Freitas

Pre-IPO Mao Geping Cosmetics - Potential Risks Behind High Gross Margins

Despite high gross margin, MAO GEPING's heavy reliance on its flagship brand and founder could pose risks. Lack of innovation and over-reliance on...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Mao Geping Cosmetics Pre-IPO Tearsheet

Mao Geping Cosmetics (1478187D CH) is looking to raise around US$300m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. The bookrunner on the deal is CICC.

Clarence Chu

Botanee Biotech (300957 CH) – Headwinds Endure

Botanee made a pronounced come-back year-to-date, reviving Tmall GMV from -59.8% YoY to -6.9% YoY between Jan and Oct, and accelerating its...

CMB International

China Cosmetics – Key takeaway from 6.18 cosmetic sales

Our channel checks and various news sources we monitored suggests cosmetic GMV for 6.18 campaign this year stood at a small decline and reached...

CMB International

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: Bounce in the Potential Deletes Could Be Short Lived

There could be 11 changes for the CSI300 in June with multiple days of ADV to trade on most names. The potential deletes have bounced recently but...

Brian Freitas

Pre-IPO Mao Geping Cosmetics - Potential Risks Behind High Gross Margins

Despite high gross margin, ​MAO GEPING's heavy reliance on its flagship brand and founder could pose risks. Lack of innovation and over-reliance on...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Mao Geping Cosmetics Pre-IPO Tearsheet

Mao Geping Cosmetics (1478187D CH) is looking to raise around US$300m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. The bookrunner on the deal is CICC.

Clarence Chu

Botanee Biotech (300957 CH) – Headwinds Endure

Botanee made a pronounced come-back year-to-date, reviving Tmall GMV from -59.8% YoY to -6.9% YoY between Jan and Oct, and accelerating its...

CMB International

China Cosmetics – Key takeaway from 6.18 cosmetic sales

Our channel checks and various news sources we monitored suggests cosmetic GMV for 6.18 campaign this year stood at a small decline and reached...

CMB International

Despite high gross margin, MAO GEPING's heavy reliance on its flagship brand and founder could pose risks. Lack of innovation and over-reliance on...