Emerging Markets Cross-Asset Strategist, Emvest Partners

Guillaume Coutant

Emerging Markets Cross-Asset Strategist

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ol><li>South Africa is experiencing a period of political and financial turmoil, with the dismissal of the respected former finance minister Gordhan followed by the credit downgrade to junk. Erratic moves on the currency and mixed economic data made it difficult for the Central Bank (SARB) to act with consistency and efficiency.</li><li>South African assets, often considered as EM benchmarks, are also dependent on external factors like the FED monetary policy and world demand for commodities.</li><li>South African assets are showing strong cross asset correlations and interesting relationships with global markets.</li></ol>

South Africa is experiencing a period of political and financial turmoil, with the dismissal of the respected former finance minister Gordhan followed by the credit downgrade to junk. Erratic moves on the currency and mixed economic data made it difficult for the Central Bank (SARB) to act with consistency and efficiency.South African assets, often considered as EM benchmarks, are also dependent on external factors like the FED monetary policy and world demand for commodities.South African assets are showing strong cross asset correlations and interesting relationships with global markets.

South Africa : A Cross Asset Overview of an EM Benchmark Country

Quantitative Equity Analyst, DMA

Charlotte van Tiddens, CFA

Quantitative Equity Analyst

Technology-First Company

DMA is a technology-first company that provides an end-to-end SaaS solution to institutional investors. DMA enables regulated entities like asset managers, wealth managers, investment managers and financial advisors to connect their front and back office, break silos and reduce headcount.

Event-Driven

<ul><li>During the last quarter of 2024, 55% of active SA equity funds outperformed their benchmarks.</li><li>This is ahead of preceding quarter where 48% of active funds outperformed.</li><li>It is also interesting to note that for the year up to the end of Q3 2024, 22% of funds outperformed their benchmarks.</li></ul>

During the last quarter of 2024, 55% of active SA equity funds outperformed their benchmarks.This is ahead of preceding quarter where 48% of active funds outperformed.It is also interesting to note that for the year up to the end of Q3 2024, 22% of funds outperformed their benchmarks.

Funds in Focus Q4 2024 & 2024: A Better Quarter & Year for Active SA Equity Managers

<ul>
<li>During the last 3 weeks, Naspers and Prosus have come under pressure relative to their underlying portfolios.</li>
<li>Since reaching a new all-time low on the 12th of February, Naspers’ discount has widened by 6 percentage points to 40.7%.</li>
<li>Prosus’ discount has widened 5.7 percentage points to 35.4%. Naspers and Prosus are down 9% and 8% respectively, relative to a decline of 1.9% for Tencent in ZAR.</li>
</ul>


During the last 3 weeks, Naspers and Prosus have come under pressure relative to their underlying portfolios.
Since reaching a new all-time low on the 12th of February, Naspers’ discount has widened by 6 percentage points to 40.7%.
Prosus’ discount has widened 5.7 percentage points to 35.4%. Naspers and Prosus are down 9% and 8% respectively, relative to a decline of 1.9% for Tencent in ZAR.


NPN X PRX Discount Update Discounts Widen to Pare Back Strong YTD Gains

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

Scotiabank

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Scotiabank’s global foreign exchange strategy team provides in-depth regional insights and macro-economic analysis for G10 and advanced economies, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Find technical and fundamental strategy reports focused on trade ideas, market risks, and the unfolding macro outlook. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>High beta currencies have done well over the past week.</li><li>A crack in the Fed’s hawkishness at last Wednesday’s FOMC boosted risk appetite and lifted pro-cyclical currencies.</li><li>Top of the pack over the last five trading sessions is the NOK (helped by the jump in Brent around Red Sea focus, for sure), followed by the ZAR, AUD, SEK and NZD.</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

High beta currencies have done well over the past week.A crack in the Fed’s hawkishness at last Wednesday’s FOMC boosted risk appetite and lifted pro-cyclical currencies.Top of the pack over the last five trading sessions is the NOK (helped by the jump in Brent around Red Sea focus, for sure), followed by the ZAR, AUD, SEK and NZD.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Snapshot - Stretched Valuation Does Not Preclude More USDCAD Losses

Fixed Income and Currency Strategist

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

<ul>
<li>The Chilean peso has performed well this year but it has still lagged behind its peers and the broad EM currencies on a longer horizon.</li>
<li>The currency has been weighed down by high oil prices, a dovish turn by the central bank, and concerns around the Constitutional Convention and the possibility of new pension withdrawals.</li>
<li>While these concerns are valid, my view is that the currency should outperform, albeit with high volatility, due to its high carry, cheap valuations, and eventually, diminishing political noise.</li>
</ul>


The Chilean peso has performed well this year but it has still lagged behind its peers and the broad EM currencies on a longer horizon.
The currency has been weighed down by high oil prices, a dovish turn by the central bank, and concerns around the Constitutional Convention and the possibility of new pension withdrawals.
While these concerns are valid, my view is that the currency should outperform, albeit with high volatility, due to its high carry, cheap valuations, and eventually, diminishing political noise.


Chilean Peso Is a Buy if One Can Stomach the Volatility

South Africa

The South African rand is the official currency of The Republic of South Africa.

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South Africa : A Cross Asset Overview of an EM Benchmark Country

South Africa is experiencing a period of political and financial turmoil, with the dismissal of the respected former finance minister Gordhan...

Guillaume Coutant

Funds in Focus Q4 2024 & 2024: A Better Quarter & Year for Active SA Equity Managers

During the last quarter of 2024, 55% of active SA equity funds outperformed their benchmarks. This is ahead of preceding quarter where 48% of...

DMA

NPN X PRX Discount Update Discounts Widen to Pare Back Strong YTD Gains

During the last 3 weeks, Naspers and Prosus have come under pressure relative to their underlying portfolios. Since reaching a new all-time low on...

DMA

FX Snapshot - Stretched Valuation Does Not Preclude More USDCAD Losses

High beta currencies have done well over the past week. A crack in the Fed’s hawkishness at last Wednesday’s FOMC boosted risk appetite and lifted...

Scotiabank

Chilean Peso Is a Buy if One Can Stomach the Volatility

The Chilean peso should outperform in the coming months, albeit with high volatility, due to its high carry, cheap valuations, and eventually,...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

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