Fixed Income and Currency Strategist

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

FX & Rates

<ul>
<li>Chile's political polarization was apparent in Sunday's general elections where the two leading candidates for the presidency who are headed for a run-off election are leftist and ultra-conservative. </li>
<li>The markets reacted positively to the elections in which right-wing parties performed well, which allowed me to recommend taking profits on a long Chilean peso vs South African rand trade.</li>
<li>While there is room for the peso to continue to outperform, I recommend closing the trade for now as I anticipate market volatility to pick up again.</li>
</ul>


Chile's political polarization was apparent in Sunday's general elections where the two leading candidates for the presidency who are headed for a run-off election are leftist and ultra-conservative. 
The markets reacted positively to the elections in which right-wing parties performed well, which allowed me to recommend taking profits on a long Chilean peso vs South African rand trade.
While there is room for the peso to continue to outperform, I recommend closing the trade for now as I anticipate market volatility to pick up again.


Chile’s Market-Friendly Election Outcome Allows Exit from Trade Recommendation

<ul>
<li>In my monthly recap note , I provide a performance update of my weekly trade recommendations in emerging markets FX and rates</li>
<li>Of the total of 27 trade recommendations made so far, I have recommended closing 18 of which 15 were in the money.</li>
<li>I also go over my open trade recommendations as well as those that I have closed recently.</li>
</ul>


In my monthly recap note , I provide a performance update of my weekly trade recommendations in emerging markets FX and rates
Of the total of 27 trade recommendations made so far, I have recommended closing 18 of which 15 were in the money.
I also go over my open trade recommendations as well as those that I have closed recently.


Alpha Bites: Performance Summary of Trade Recommendations – November 2021

After strengthening through early October, the US dollar has turned trendless. I evaluate the change in performance of EM currencies when the dollar was at a peak versus now. Specifically, I go over the regional and country divergences to identify the outperformers and underperformers. I also highlight the currencies where I see the most value.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM currency market in which I seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to an EM currency index.

After strengthening through early October, the US dollar has turned trendless. I evaluate the change in performance of EM currencies when the dollar was at a peak versus now. Specifically, I go over the regional and country divergences to identify the outperformers and underperformers. I also highlight the currencies where I see the most value.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM currency market in which I seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to an EM currency index.

FX Dashboard: Updating EM FX Winners and Losers

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Thomas Schroeder

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Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

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Technical Analysis

We are finding some interesting synergy between a stronger USD/TRY bleeding into EM FX that would align with our bearish EEM relative triangle and physical resistance at the 53 trendline barrier.This is an undercurrent not apparent in the DXY or USD weakness in Asia (risk-on).USD/BRL macro bullish flat may need more time but is setting up for a macro USD breakout higher. USD/ZAR bull triangle also taking shape.EEM relative chart due to break lower vs SPX and must see varying degrees of USD strength that will stems from BRL and ZAR sensitivity.

We are finding some interesting synergy between a stronger USD/TRY bleeding into EM FX that would align with our bearish EEM relative triangle and physical resistance at the 53 trendline barrier.This is an undercurrent not apparent in the DXY or USD weakness in Asia (risk-on).USD/BRL macro bullish flat may need more time but is setting up for a macro USD breakout higher. USD/ZAR bull triangle also taking shape.EEM relative chart due to break lower vs SPX and must see varying degrees of USD strength that will stems from BRL and ZAR sensitivity.

In this edition of Alpha Bites, I list my current open trade recommendations in EM FX and rates along with links to notes where I discuss the trades in more detail. The tables include expected returns on the trades on a 3-month horizon assuming mean reversion in this period.

In this edition of Alpha Bites, I list my current open trade recommendations in EM FX and rates along with links to notes where I discuss the trades in more detail. The tables include expected returns on the trades on a 3-month horizon assuming mean reversion in this period.

Alpha Bites: Current Trade Recommendations in EM FX and Rates

South Africa

The South African rand is the official currency of The Republic of South Africa.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

ZAR (USDZAR CURNCY)

Chile’s Market-Friendly Election Outcome Allows Exit from Trade Recommendation

The markets reacted positively to Chile's elections in which right-wing parties performed well, which allowed me to recommend taking profits on a...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

Alpha Bites: Performance Summary of Trade Recommendations – November 2021

I provide a performance update of all my trade recommendations along with discussing the open trades. I have recommended closing 18 of the 27...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

FX Dashboard: Updating EM FX Winners and Losers

As the US dollar turns trendless, I go over the regional and country divergences to identify the outperformers and underperformers in EM. I also...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

TRY Bleed into EEM

We are finding some interesting synergy between a stronger USD/TRY bleeding into EM FX that would align with our bearish EEM relative triangle and...

Thomas Schroeder

Alpha Bites: Current Trade Recommendations in EM FX and Rates

In this edition of Alpha Bites, I list my current open trade recommendations in EM FX and rates along with links to notes where I discuss the...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)