Fixed Income and Currency Strategist

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

FX & Rates

EM currencies on aggregate have been tracking the US dollar closely but there has been a fair amount of differentiation within EM. With many central banks in EM embarking on monetary tightening cycles, we investigate whether that has been a factor explaining the different currency performances. We also identify the currencies that are cheap and expensive based on this analysis.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM currency market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to an EM currency index.

EM currencies on aggregate have been tracking the US dollar closely but there has been a fair amount of differentiation within EM. With many central banks in EM embarking on monetary tightening cycles, we investigate whether that has been a factor explaining the different currency performances. We also identify the currencies that are cheap and expensive based on this analysis.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM currency market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to an EM currency index.

FX Dashboard: Is Monetary Policy Driving FX Returns?

While our base case is not one of significant dollar strengthening, we need to be cognizant of the risk. As such, we evaluate which currencies are the most vulnerable if we get a repeat of the Q1 dollar appreciation and EM FX sell-off on the back of higher US Treasury yields.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM currency market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to an EM currency index.

While our base case is not one of significant dollar strengthening, we need to be cognizant of the risk. As such, we evaluate which currencies are the most vulnerable if we get a repeat of the Q1 dollar appreciation and EM FX sell-off on the back of higher US Treasury yields.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM currency market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to an EM currency index.

FX Dashboard: Which Currencies Are Most Vulnerable to Dollar Strengthening?

With the market speculating on whether or not there will be hints on tapering when the FOMC decision is announced later today, we decided to update our comparative analysis of the impact on EM currencies during the current reflationary episode with that during the Taper Tantrum of 2013.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM currency market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to an EM currency index.

With the market speculating on whether or not there will be hints on tapering when the FOMC decision is announced later today, we decided to update our comparative analysis of the impact on EM currencies during the current reflationary episode with that during the Taper Tantrum of 2013.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM currency market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to an EM currency index.

FX Dashboard: An Update on Taper Tantrum Vs Current Reflationary Scare – Part 1

EM FX volatility has dropped to its lowest level since the start of pandemic, which is likely leading to a positive scenario for currencies. In this note, we highlight the currencies most likely to benefit in such an environment.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM currency market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to an EM currency index.

EM FX volatility has dropped to its lowest level since the start of pandemic, which is likely leading to a positive scenario for currencies. In this note, we highlight the currencies most likely to benefit in such an environment.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM currency market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to an EM currency index.

FX Dashboard: Declining EM FX Volatility Foreshadows a Positive Environment

In this note, we identify the currencies that have outperformed and underperformed as EM currencies have overall appreciated with the dollar depreciating since the end of March. We also place our outstanding trade recommendations in the context of the relative performances of EM currencies.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM currency market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to an EM currency index.

In this note, we identify the currencies that have outperformed and underperformed as EM currencies have overall appreciated with the dollar depreciating since the end of March. We also place our outstanding trade recommendations in the context of the relative performances of EM currencies.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM currency market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to an EM currency index.

FX Dashboard: Updating the Winners and Losers in the EM Turnaround

South Africa

The South African rand is the official currency of The Republic of South Africa.

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FX Dashboard: Is Monetary Policy Driving FX Returns?

With many EM central banks embarking on monetary tightening cycles, we investigate whether that has been a factor explaining the currency...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

FX Dashboard: Which Currencies Are Most Vulnerable to Dollar Strengthening?

We evaluate which currencies are the most vulnerable under the risk scenario of a repeat of the Q1 dollar appreciation and EM FX sell-off on the...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

FX Dashboard: An Update on Taper Tantrum Vs Current Reflationary Scare – Part 1

Ahead of the FOMC decision today, we decided to update our comparative analysis of the impact on EM currencies during the current reflationary...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

FX Dashboard: Declining EM FX Volatility Foreshadows a Positive Environment

With EM FX volatility dropping to its lowest level since the start of pandemic, we highlight the currencies most likely to benefit in the likely...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

FX Dashboard: Updating the Winners and Losers in the EM Turnaround

We identify the currencies that have outperformed and underperformed with the dollar depreciating since the end of March and place our outstanding...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)