Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Hang Seng Indexes announces changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng China Enterprises Index</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng TECH Index</a>, HSIII Index and HSCI Index (among others) post market close today. </li>
<li>The net round-trip trade across the stocks is estimated to be HK$35bn (US$4.5bn) with big impact in a lot of stocks.</li>
<li>Capping will lead to most inflows to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a> while the largest outflows will be from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xiaomi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24409:1" rel="noopener">Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK)</a>. </li>
</ul>


Hang Seng Indexes announces changes to the Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, Hang Seng TECH Index, HSIII Index and HSCI Index (among others) post market close today. 
The net round-trip trade across the stocks is estimated to be HK$35bn (US$4.5bn) with big impact in a lot of stocks.
Capping will lead to most inflows to Meituan (3690 HK) while the largest outflows will be from Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK) and Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK). 


Hang Seng Indexes: Announcement Today; Updated Flows (Some Big Ones)

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>A shares were down on the week, not maintaining the month-end bounce after the long weekend. H-shares were mixed. HSCEI was slightly up. </li>
<li>Net SOUTHBOUND buying was +HK23bn. SOUTHBOUND ended its consecutive post-CNY daily net buy streak on 25 March, then started a new one. No net sell days since.</li>
<li>This week saw a LOT of news. State Council Nine Points. CSRC draft regs and legislative work plan. Ratings agency action. Lots of movement. None of it hugely positive.</li>
</ul>


A shares were down on the week, not maintaining the month-end bounce after the long weekend. H-shares were mixed. HSCEI was slightly up. 
Net SOUTHBOUND buying was +HK23bn. SOUTHBOUND ended its consecutive post-CNY daily net buy streak on 25 March, then started a new one. No net sell days since.
This week saw a LOT of news. State Council Nine Points. CSRC draft regs and legislative work plan. Ratings agency action. Lots of movement. None of it hugely positive.


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 12 Apr 2024); Strong Net Buying. New State Council and CSRC Plans

Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Forward earnings compress valuation from &gt;40× to ~14×, driven by pricing, volume absorption, and low costs, with NPAT rising toward RMB 6–6.5 bn by FY27.</li>
<li>Concentrated float and GDX/Zijin ownership support a passive bid; dividend capacity lifts toward a 3–4% yield as cash exceeds RMB 4.5 bn.</li>
<li>Throughput upgrades, Abujar recoveries and zero-marginal-cost ounces provide additional upside, sustaining FCF even at US$3,800 gold.</li>
</ul>


Forward earnings compress valuation from &gt;40× to ~14×, driven by pricing, volume absorption, and low costs, with NPAT rising toward RMB 6–6.5 bn by FY27.
Concentrated float and GDX/Zijin ownership support a passive bid; dividend capacity lifts toward a 3–4% yield as cash exceeds RMB 4.5 bn.
Throughput upgrades, Abujar recoveries and zero-marginal-cost ounces provide additional upside, sustaining FCF even at US$3,800 gold.


Zhaojin Mining — Pure Gold Beta with Forward Multiple Compression and Dividend Re-Rating

Commodities

<ul>
<li>MVGDX concentrates in North America and silver duration, shrinking Asia to ~3% based on liquidity and replication discipline.</li>
<li>AMMN breaches gold-purity retention thresholds, signalling likely removal in 2026 and passive outflows.</li>
<li>BRMS remains the only credible Indonesian gold-pure substitute; Zijin inclusion unlikely before Q3-2027 due to float constraints.</li>
</ul>


MVGDX concentrates in North America and silver duration, shrinking Asia to ~3% based on liquidity and replication discipline.
AMMN breaches gold-purity retention thresholds, signalling likely removal in 2026 and passive outflows.
BRMS remains the only credible Indonesian gold-pure substitute; Zijin inclusion unlikely before Q3-2027 due to float constraints.


Asia Gold Mining 2026–27: Pricing the AMMN Exit & The BRMS Proxy Pivot

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Gold has compounded ~8–9% annually over two decades, with structural drivers — central bank demand, energy transition, and supply discipline — supporting a constructive long-term outlook</li>
<li>Gold equities historically show 1.5–2.5x beta to bullion with correlations of 0.6–0.8, amplifying upside in bull cycles and underperforming in downturns.</li>
<li>The sector has already seen a sharp run-up, but positioning, fundamentals, and macro tailwinds suggest this rally may still have legs.</li>
</ul>


Gold has compounded ~8–9% annually over two decades, with structural drivers — central bank demand, energy transition, and supply discipline — supporting a constructive long-term outlook
Gold equities historically show 1.5–2.5x beta to bullion with correlations of 0.6–0.8, amplifying upside in bull cycles and underperforming in downturns.
The sector has already seen a sharp run-up, but positioning, fundamentals, and macro tailwinds suggest this rally may still have legs.


Asia’s Gold Miners: High-Beta Plays for Gold’s Next Surge

China

Zhaojin Mining Industry Co., Ltd. is a leading gold mining enterprise primarily engaged in gold exploration, mining, processing, refining, and smelting activities, offering products like Au9999 and Au9995 gold bullions. The company also has operations in copper mining and smelting. It was incorporated in 2004 and is headquartered in Zhaoyuan, Shandong Province, People's Republic of China.

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Zhaojin Mining (1818 HK)

Hang Seng Indexes: Announcement Today; Updated Flows (Some Big Ones)

Hang Seng Indexes announces post market close today. There will be changes for the HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSIII and HSCI indices. The net round-trip...

Brian Freitas

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 12 Apr 2024); Strong Net Buying. New State Council and CSRC Plans

Strong SOUTHBOUND Connect flows continue. Only one net sell day since the end of Chinese New Year. H-shares were flat to up while A-shares were...

Travis Lundy

Zhaojin Mining — Pure Gold Beta with Forward Multiple Compression and Dividend Re-Rating

Article highlights strong forward earnings growth, low valuation, and potential for increased dividends and FCF for Zhaojin.

Rahul Jain

Asia Gold Mining 2026–27: Pricing the AMMN Exit & The BRMS Proxy Pivot

MVGDX focuses on North America, AMMN faces removal in 2026, BRMS is top Indonesian gold substitute with Zijin inclusion unlikely before Q3-2027.

Rahul Jain

Asia’s Gold Miners: High-Beta Plays for Gold’s Next Surge

Gold has shown consistent growth over two decades, while gold equities historically amplify bullion's performance but may still have room to run.

Rahul Jain

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Hang Seng Indexes: Announcement Today; Updated Flows (Some Big Ones)

Hang Seng Indexes announces post market close today. There will be changes for the HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSIII and HSCI indices. The net round-trip...

Brian Freitas

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 12 Apr 2024); Strong Net Buying. New State Council and CSRC Plans

Strong SOUTHBOUND Connect flows continue. Only one net sell day since the end of Chinese New Year. H-shares were flat to up while A-shares were...

Travis Lundy

Zhaojin Mining — Pure Gold Beta with Forward Multiple Compression and Dividend Re-Rating

​Article highlights strong forward earnings growth, low valuation, and potential for increased dividends and FCF for Zhaojin.

Rahul Jain

Asia Gold Mining 2026–27: Pricing the AMMN Exit & The BRMS Proxy Pivot

​MVGDX focuses on North America, AMMN faces removal in 2026, BRMS is top Indonesian gold substitute with Zijin inclusion unlikely before Q3-2027.

Rahul Jain

Asia’s Gold Miners: High-Beta Plays for Gold’s Next Surge

​Gold has shown consistent growth over two decades, while gold equities historically amplify bullion's performance but may still have room to run.

Rahul Jain

Article highlights strong forward earnings growth, low valuation, and potential for increased dividends and FCF for Zhaojin.

MVGDX focuses on North America, AMMN faces removal in 2026, BRMS is top Indonesian gold substitute with Zijin inclusion unlikely before Q3-2027.

Gold has shown consistent growth over two decades, while gold equities historically amplify bullion's performance but may still have room to run.