Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The March rebalance of the Hang Seng family of indices will use today's closing prices to cap the index constituent weights.</li>
<li>The net round-trip trade across all stocks across the five indices is estimated at HK$38.8bn (US$4.96bn). There is size to trade in a lot of stocks.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xiaomi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24409:1" rel="noopener">Xiaomi</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/horizon-robotics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35637:1" rel="noopener">Horizon Robotics</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/netease-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29030:1" rel="noopener">NetEase</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-molybdenum-co-ltd-d9c46a67-e31f-431f-9f5f-02222265d701" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8585:1" rel="noopener">China Molybdenum</a> are the largest net buys, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hsbc-holdings-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:516:1" rel="noopener">HSBC Holdings</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/semiconductor-manufacturing-international-corp-smic" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14231:1" rel="noopener">SMIC</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29043:1" rel="noopener">JD.com</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lenovo-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13359:1" rel="noopener">Lenovo</a> are the largest net sells.</li>
</ul>


The March rebalance of the Hang Seng family of indices will use today's closing prices to cap the index constituent weights.
The net round-trip trade across all stocks across the five indices is estimated at HK$38.8bn (US$4.96bn). There is size to trade in a lot of stocks.

Tencent, Xiaomi, Meituan, Alibaba, Horizon Robotics, NetEase and China Molybdenum are the largest net buys, while HSBC Holdings, BYD, SMIC, JD.com and Lenovo are the largest net sells.


HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSIII, HSBIO Index Rebalance: US$5bn of Flows Post Capping (Mar 2026)

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of HSI in the past month.</li>
<li>We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.</li>
<li>We highlighted EPS revision on PING AN INSURANCE, ALIBABA, MEITUAN, TENCENT, CSPC Pharma, HSBC, INNOVENT BIOLOGICS.</li>
</ul>


We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of HSI in the past month.
We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.
We highlighted EPS revision on PING AN INSURANCE, ALIBABA, MEITUAN, TENCENT, CSPC Pharma, HSBC, INNOVENT BIOLOGICS.


HSI Index Earning Revision (Feb): PING AN INSURANCE, ALIBABA, MEITUAN, TENCENT, CSPC Pharma, HSBC

Contemporary Amperex Technology / Index Rebalance

Contemporary Amperex Technology (3750 HK)

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/contemporary-amperex-technology-catl-co-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45179:1" rel="noopener">CATL (3750 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-molybdenum-co-ltd-d9c46a67-e31f-431f-9f5f-02222265d701" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8585:1" rel="noopener">China Molybdenum (3993 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/laopu-gold-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44036:1" rel="noopener">Laopu Gold (6181 HK)</a> will be added to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index</a> in March, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhongsheng-group-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10573:1" rel="noopener">Zhongsheng Group (881 HK)</a> will be deleted.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 2.5% and the estimated round-trip trade is HK$9.65bn (US$1.23bn). Big capping inflows for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a> and big capping outflows for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hsbc-holdings-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:516:1" rel="noopener">HSBC Holdings (5 HK)</a>. </li>
<li>With decent size to buy from passives, the A/H trades on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/contemporary-amperex-technology-catl-co-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45179:1" rel="noopener">CATL (3750 HK)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/contemporary-amperex-technolog" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24404:1" rel="noopener">CATL (300750 CH)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-molybdenum-co-ltd-d9c46a67-e31f-431f-9f5f-02222265d701" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8585:1" rel="noopener">China Molybdenum (3993 HK)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cmoc-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28168:1" rel="noopener">CMOC Group (603993 CH)</a> become interesting.</li>
</ul>



CATL (3750 HK), China Molybdenum (3993 HK) and Laopu Gold (6181 HK) will be added to the Hang Seng Index in March, while Zhongsheng Group (881 HK) will be deleted.
Estimated one-way turnover is 2.5% and the estimated round-trip trade is HK$9.65bn (US$1.23bn). Big capping inflows for Tencent (700 HK) and big capping outflows for HSBC Holdings (5 HK). 
With decent size to buy from passives, the A/H trades on CATL (3750 HK) / CATL (300750 CH) and China Molybdenum (3993 HK) / CMOC Group (603993 CH) become interesting.


Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance: 3 Adds & 1 Delete as More A/H Pairs Selected

<ul>
<li>Post market close on Friday, Hang Seng Indexes will announce the changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a> that will be implemented at the close on 6 March.</li>
<li>We highlight 8 stocks that have a higher probability of being added to the index. With the index committee entitled to a lot of discretion, there will be differences.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/contemporary-amperex-technology-catl-co-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45179:1" rel="noopener">CATL (3750 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yum-china-holdings-inc-0533692c-6dae-4014-baa1-ed0b050638f2" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29259:1" rel="noopener">Yum China Holdings (9987 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wuxi-xdc-cayman-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39917:1" rel="noopener">WuXi XDC Cayman (2268 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/3sbio-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:459:1" rel="noopener">3SBio Inc (1530 HK)</a> have better odds than others of being added to the index.</li>
</ul>


Post market close on Friday, Hang Seng Indexes will announce the changes for the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) that will be implemented at the close on 6 March.
We highlight 8 stocks that have a higher probability of being added to the index. With the index committee entitled to a lot of discretion, there will be differences.

CATL (3750 HK), Yum China Holdings (9987 HK), WuXi XDC Cayman (2268 HK) and 3SBio Inc (1530 HK) have better odds than others of being added to the index.


Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance Preview: Inclusion Candidates for Mar26

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>After a tragic 61.4pp underperformance against the HSI in 2025, the market is almost unanimously bearish on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a>, which presents opportunities in 2026.</li>
<li>Negative news did not push it further down; P/B is at over 1SD below average, and net cash-to-share price is 5.6pp above the historical average.</li>
<li>3Q25 margins are so depressed that sustaining the price war is difficult. As the 7th-heaviest HSI constituent, it is the one to move the Index next year. </li>
</ul>


After a tragic 61.4pp underperformance against the HSI in 2025, the market is almost unanimously bearish on Meituan (3690 HK), which presents opportunities in 2026.
Negative news did not push it further down; P/B is at over 1SD below average, and net cash-to-share price is 5.6pp above the historical average.
3Q25 margins are so depressed that sustaining the price war is difficult. As the 7th-heaviest HSI constituent, it is the one to move the Index next year. 


2026 High Conviction: Meituan (3690 HK) - Contrarian Perspectives

China

Zhongsheng Group is a leading national automobile dealership group in China, specializing in the sale of new and used luxury and mid-to-high-end automobiles, including brands like Mercedes-Benz, Lexus, and Audi. The company also provides comprehensive after-sales services, such as repair, maintenance, spare parts, accessories, and related auto finance and insurance services. It was founded in 1998 and is headquartered in Dalian, China.

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Zhongsheng (881 HK)

HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSIII, HSBIO Index Rebalance: US$5bn of Flows Post Capping (Mar 2026)

The March rebalance of the HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSIII, HSHKBIO indices will use today's closing prices for capping. The round-trip trade across the...

Brian Freitas

HSI Index Earning Revision (Feb): PING AN INSURANCE, ALIBABA, MEITUAN, TENCENT, CSPC Pharma, HSBC

We analyzed HSI's consensus for Feb 2026 and highlighted changes of EPS in PING AN INSURANCE, ALIBABA, MEITUAN, TENCENT, CSPC Pharma, HSBC,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance: 3 Adds & 1 Delete as More A/H Pairs Selected

There are 3 adds, 1 delete for the HSI to take us to 90 members. We should get to the 100-target early 2027. With mainland China closed for the...

Brian Freitas

Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance Preview: Inclusion Candidates for Mar26

We highlight 8 potential adds to the HSI in March. CATL is still a high prob add along with Healthcare names. Estimated turnover is 4.1% and trade...

Brian Freitas

2026 High Conviction: Meituan (3690 HK) - Contrarian Perspectives

The market's unanimous bearish stance on Meituan creates opportunities in 2026, given its low P/B and high net cash-to-share price. Margins are so...

Osbert Tang, CFA

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