Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Contemporary Amperex Technology / Index Rebalance

Contemporary Amperex Technology (3750 HK)

<ul>
<li>Post market close on Friday, Hang Seng Indexes will announce the changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a> that will be implemented at the close on 5 December.</li>
<li>We highlight 6 stocks that have a higher probability of being added to the index. With the index committee entitled to a lot of discretion, there will be differences.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/contemporary-amperex-technology-catl-co-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45179:1" rel="noopener">CATL (3750 HK)</a> will have a 6-month trading history by implementation of the index changes and is a high probability inclusion to the index. But cornerstone lock-up ends tomorrow.</li>
</ul>


Post market close on Friday, Hang Seng Indexes will announce the changes for the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) that will be implemented at the close on 5 December.
We highlight 6 stocks that have a higher probability of being added to the index. With the index committee entitled to a lot of discretion, there will be differences.

CATL (3750 HK) will have a 6-month trading history by implementation of the index changes and is a high probability inclusion to the index. But cornerstone lock-up ends tomorrow.


Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance Preview: Inclusion Candidates for Dec25

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The prior MO for the Jardines group was never sell your commercial buildings. This year marks a paradigm shift in that line of thinking. </li>
<li>First <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hongkong-land-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15465:1" rel="noopener">Hongkong Land (HKL SP)</a> sold nine floors of One Exchange Square to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-exchanges-clearing" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:490:1" rel="noopener">HKEX (388 HK)</a>. The first such sale since 1988.</li>
<li>Now <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mandarin-oriental-international-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4773:1" rel="noopener">Mandarin Oriental (MAND SP)</a> is negotiating the sale of "certain office space" at One Causeway Bay. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-matheson-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19718:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Matheson (JM SP)</a>'s NAV discount and implied stub are at 12-month lows/highs.</li>
</ul>


The prior MO for the Jardines group was never sell your commercial buildings. This year marks a paradigm shift in that line of thinking. 
First Hongkong Land (HKL SP) sold nine floors of One Exchange Square to HKEX (388 HK). The first such sale since 1988.
Now Mandarin Oriental (MAND SP) is negotiating the sale of "certain office space" at One Causeway Bay. Jardine Matheson (JM SP)'s NAV discount and implied stub are at 12-month lows/highs.


Jardine Matheson (JML SP): Additional Office Recycling Speculated

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-matheson-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19718:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Matheson Holdings (JM SP)</a> is up ~10% this week and ~30% YTD. 53.3%-held <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hongkong-land-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15465:1" rel="noopener">Hongkong Land (HKL SP)</a>, JMH's largest holding, is up 41% YTD and 85% over the year. </li>
<li>HKL has been on a tear since CEO Michael Smith started on the 1st April 2024, as HKL focused on capital allocation and portfolio management - read deleveraging.</li>
<li>The recent appointment of PAG's Lincoln Pan at the helm of JMH, has the street upbeat he will bring about similar positive developments. That's not unreasonable.</li>
</ul>



Jardine Matheson Holdings (JM SP) is up ~10% this week and ~30% YTD. 53.3%-held Hongkong Land (HKL SP), JMH's largest holding, is up 41% YTD and 85% over the year. 
HKL has been on a tear since CEO Michael Smith started on the 1st April 2024, as HKL focused on capital allocation and portfolio management - read deleveraging.
The recent appointment of PAG's Lincoln Pan at the helm of JMH, has the street upbeat he will bring about similar positive developments. That's not unreasonable.


Jardine Matheson (JM SP) On A Roll As The Street Turns (More) Positive

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Credit

<ul><li>Zhongsheng (rated Baa2/BBB/BBB by Moody’s/S&amp;P/Fitch)’s 1H25 operating performance continued to be dragged by the weak new car sales and the negative gross margin of new car sales.</li><li>That said, we take comfort with its solid credit, supported its consistent positive FCF, reducing debts and low near-term refinancing pressure through the active liability management since Jul’24.</li><li>ZHOSHK 5.98 01/30/28 has been outperforming since Jul’25, cash price has since been 2pts higher and credit spared tightened 50bps. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Zhongsheng (rated Baa2/BBB/BBB by Moody’s/S&amp;P/Fitch)’s 1H25 operating performance continued to be dragged by the weak new car sales and the negative gross margin of new car sales.That said, we take comfort with its solid credit, supported its consistent positive FCF, reducing debts and low near-term refinancing pressure through the active liability management since Jul’24.ZHOSHK 5.98 01/30/28 has been outperforming since Jul’25, cash price has since been 2pts higher and credit spared tightened 50bps. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

CMBI Fixed Income - ZHOSHK: Credit Profile Remains Solid Under a Challenging Operating Environment

Research from Asian Century Stocks, Asian Century Stocks

Michael Fritzell

Research from Asian Century Stocks

Providing financial journalism in the Asia-Pacific

Asian Century Stocks

Asian Century Stocks is a newsletter providing financial journalism for companies and stocks in the Asia-Pacific. 
The Asian Century Stocks logotype “百” stands for “one hundred” or a “century”. The economic centre of gravity is moving towards Asia. Yet most global investors are missing out.

<ul><li>After Ben Keswick took over Jardine Matheson, the company has slowly transitioned away from being an owner-operator to more of a portfolio manager.</li><li>The privatization of Jardine Strategic was under-priced, but it also simplified the corporate structure. That should be positive for minorities in the long term.</li><li>Jardine Matheson’s own board has now been stacked with private equity professionals. And new CEO Lincoln Pan comes from private equity firm PAG, where he built up its non-China business.</li></ul>

After Ben Keswick took over Jardine Matheson, the company has slowly transitioned away from being an owner-operator to more of a portfolio manager.The privatization of Jardine Strategic was under-priced, but it also simplified the corporate structure. That should be positive for minorities in the long term.Jardine Matheson’s own board has now been stacked with private equity professionals. And new CEO Lincoln Pan comes from private equity firm PAG, where he built up its non-China business.

A New Era for Jardine Matheson: An Under-The-Radar Transformation.

China

Zhongsheng Group is a leading national automobile dealership group in China, specializing in the sale of new and used luxury and mid-to-high-end automobiles, including brands like Mercedes-Benz, Lexus, and Audi. The company also provides comprehensive after-sales services, such as repair, maintenance, spare parts, accessories, and related auto finance and insurance services. It was founded in 1998 and is headquartered in Dalian, China.

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Zhongsheng (881 HK)

Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance Preview: Inclusion Candidates for Dec25

We highlight 6 potential adds to the HSI in Dec. CATL is a high prob add and has a lock-up expiry tomorrow. Estimated turnover is 1.9% and trade is...

Brian Freitas

Jardine Matheson (JML SP): Additional Office Recycling Speculated

MAND announced that it is selling thirteen floors of One Causeway Bay (OCB) to Alibaba (BABA US) for US$925mn. That's ~US$0.73/share. ...

David Blennerhassett

Jardine Matheson (JM SP) On A Roll As The Street Turns (More) Positive

MAND has confirmed it's in discussions to sell some office space in One Causeway Bay (previously the Excelsior Hotel). Alibaba is rumoured to be...

David Blennerhassett

CMBI Fixed Income - ZHOSHK: Credit Profile Remains Solid Under a Challenging Operating Environment

Zhongsheng (rated Baa2/BBB/BBB by Moody’s/S&P/Fitch)’s 1H25 operating performance continued to be dragged by the weak new car sales and the...

CMB International

A New Era for Jardine Matheson: An Under-The-Radar Transformation.

After Ben Keswick took over Jardine Matheson, the company has slowly transitioned away from being an owner-operator to more of a portfolio manager.

Asian Century Stocks

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