Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The MV Global Gold Miners index represents the performance of large and mid-cap global gold and silver mining companies. We expect 2-3 ADDs on average each quarter.</li>
<li>Based on the latest data, we now see six ADDs in June 2026 and a one-way flow of US$1.1bn.</li>
<li>The Regis-Vault merger could have consequences for the index in September 2026.</li>
</ul>


The MV Global Gold Miners index represents the performance of large and mid-cap global gold and silver mining companies. We expect 2-3 ADDs on average each quarter.
Based on the latest data, we now see six ADDs in June 2026 and a one-way flow of US$1.1bn.
The Regis-Vault merger could have consequences for the index in September 2026.


[Quiddity Index] MV Global Gold Miners Jun26: Six ADDs Likely; Base Date Approaching

Chief Executive Officer, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Chief Executive Officer

Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Emmer Capital Partners is an Asia Pacific focused financial advisory firm engaging in strategic financial asset allocation advice, bespoke thematic research and advising early-stage companies and connecting them to investors. Emmer Capital provides macro-economic and multi-asset investment strategy inputs to institutions, family offices, private wealth managers, private equity, and corporate boards directly and through independent research platforms. Emmer Capital also advises a wide range of startup companies on fund raising and business strategy. Emmer Capital's active engagement with the print and electronic media reaches a broad spectrum of investors across the globe.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Analyzing last 18 year's year-on-year earnings growth patterns, we conclude that Asian earnings are highly cyclical, with average peak-to-trough length of 24-30 months, unless driven by a sharp liquidity spike.</li>
<li>Korean and Taiwanese earnings cycles are at their peaks and HK/China is close. Among the large markets, only India is at the bottom of its earnings growth cycle. </li>
<li>Onshore China valuations could stay flat; Taiwan PE could correct more. HK and Korean PE should rise. Indian valuations could correct slightly, in line with previous earnings cycle bottoms.</li>
</ul>


Analyzing last 18 year's year-on-year earnings growth patterns, we conclude that Asian earnings are highly cyclical, with average peak-to-trough length of 24-30 months, unless driven by a sharp liquidity spike.
Korean and Taiwanese earnings cycles are at their peaks and HK/China is close. Among the large markets, only India is at the bottom of its earnings growth cycle. 
Onshore China valuations could stay flat; Taiwan PE could correct more. HK and Korean PE should rise. Indian valuations could correct slightly, in line with previous earnings cycle bottoms.


Asian Equities: Earnings Cycles Are at Different Stages in Different Asian Markets

<ul>
<li>Recent spike in oil prices and US yields is not deterring foreigners from buying Asian equities. After buying US$4.8bn of Asian Equities in August, FIIs have bought US$1.8bn in September.</li>
<li>In August FIIs bought Taiwan (US$11bn) and India (US$3.1bn) and sold Korea (-US$8.5bn). In September they have bought Taiwan (US$2bn) and Korea (US$1bn) and have sold India (-US$1.25bn).</li>
<li>We believe foreign buying shall bounce back in tech-heavy Korea and Taiwan. FIIs would likely buy India too, but in smaller measure than North Asia. We are cautious about ASEAN.</li>
</ul>


Recent spike in oil prices and US yields is not deterring foreigners from buying Asian equities. After buying US$4.8bn of Asian Equities in August, FIIs have bought US$1.8bn in September.
In August FIIs bought Taiwan (US$11bn) and India (US$3.1bn) and sold Korea (-US$8.5bn). In September they have bought Taiwan (US$2bn) and Korea (US$1bn) and have sold India (-US$1.25bn).
We believe foreign buying shall bounce back in tech-heavy Korea and Taiwan. FIIs would likely buy India too, but in smaller measure than North Asia. We are cautious about ASEAN.


Asian Equities: Foreigners Are Buying Korea and Taiwan Again; India and Thailand Being Sold

Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

<ul><li>In Depth: China’s Transport Price War Shows What Happens When Trains Catch Up to Planes When confronted with the choice of flying or taking the train across China, a growing chorus of travelers is defaulting to a single answer: “whichever is cheaper.”</li><li>This encapsulates a profound shift underway in China’s transportation market.</li><li>Analysis: Why China Is Rewriting Its Stock Market Refinancing Rules</li></ul>

In Depth: China’s Transport Price War Shows What Happens When Trains Catch Up to Planes When confronted with the choice of flying or taking the train across China, a growing chorus of travelers is defaulting to a single answer: “whichever is cheaper.”This encapsulates a profound shift underway in China’s transportation market.Analysis: Why China Is Rewriting Its Stock Market Refinancing Rules

CX Daily: China’s Transport Price War Shows What Happens When Trains Catch Up to Planes 

<ul>
<li>Record high US yields could impact Asia through rising cost of capital dampening growth and valuations. Besides, foreign money could continue to move towards safe haven US treasuries.</li>
<li>The Asian markets where central banks are forced to hike policy rates, and the markets that are steeply valued relative to earnings growth or ROEs could be particularly vulnerable.</li>
<li>Korea, Indonesia and Philippines are hiking rates. Judging by inflation trajectories and real rates, India and Thailand could join later this year. India and Taiwan appear overvalued relative to ROEs.</li>
</ul>


Record high US yields could impact Asia through rising cost of capital dampening growth and valuations. Besides, foreign money could continue to move towards safe haven US treasuries.
The Asian markets where central banks are forced to hike policy rates, and the markets that are steeply valued relative to earnings growth or ROEs could be particularly vulnerable.
Korea, Indonesia and Philippines are hiking rates. Judging by inflation trajectories and real rates, India and Thailand could join later this year. India and Taiwan appear overvalued relative to ROEs.


Asian Equities: Watch Interest Rates, Inflation Trajectories and Valuations

China

Zijin Mining Group is a large global mining company primarily engaged in the exploration, extraction, and refining of metallic mineral resources. Its key products include copper, gold, zinc, lithium, silver, and molybdenum. The company was founded in 1986 and is headquartered in Longyan, Fujian, China.

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Zijin Mining (2899 HK)

[Quiddity Index] MV Global Gold Miners Jun26: Six ADDs Likely; Base Date Approaching

The MV Global Gold Miners base date approaches. It is 8 days away. There is one high conviction ADD, and a medium. Lows are 40% likely in our model...

Travis Lundy

Asian Equities: Earnings Cycles Are at Different Stages in Different Asian Markets

Asian earnings growth is cyclical. KR & TW are at their cyclical peaks, HK/CN are close. Earnings growth cycle in India is at its trough. HK & KR...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Asian Equities: Foreigners Are Buying Korea and Taiwan Again; India and Thailand Being Sold

Recent spike in oil prices & US yields is not deterring FIIs from buying Asian equities. After buying US$4.8bn in Aug, FIIs have bought US$1.8bn in...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

CX Daily: China’s Transport Price War Shows What Happens When Trains Catch Up to Planes

In Depth: China’s Transport Price War Shows What Happens When Trains Catch Up to Planes When confronted with the choice of flying or...

Caixin Global

Asian Equities: Watch Interest Rates, Inflation Trajectories and Valuations

Record high US yields could depress Asian growth & valuations. Besides KR, ID & PH who are hiking rates, India & TH could join later. India & TW...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

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