Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

AP Moeller - Maersk A/S / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Container carrier Maersk delivered strong Q2 results, mainly due to improved unit pricing</li>
<li>Company revised FY26 EBITDA guidance upward for the second time in just six weeks</li>
<li>We underestimated carriers' ability to quickly, successfully pass along big fuel cost increase</li>
</ul>


Container carrier Maersk delivered strong Q2 results, mainly due to improved unit pricing
Company revised FY26 EBITDA guidance upward for the second time in just six weeks
We underestimated carriers' ability to quickly, successfully pass along big fuel cost increase


Maersk Q226 Results: Price Gains Exceeded Fuel Cost Increases (By a Lot) | Guidance Lifted Again!

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Sovereign 10-year yields are hitting multi-year highs in the US, UK, Germany, France, Japan, and India (among others). This is a positive for shipping stocks on two levels.</li>
<li>(1) Rates moving higher generally suggests robust GDP growth, and more economic activity means more need for shipping.</li>
<li>(2) Value stocks historically outperform in rising rate environments, and most of the shipping stocks highlighted today have P/Es in the 4-6X range, putting them squarely in the value camp.</li>
</ul>


Sovereign 10-year yields are hitting multi-year highs in the US, UK, Germany, France, Japan, and India (among others). This is a positive for shipping stocks on two levels.
(1) Rates moving higher generally suggests robust GDP growth, and more economic activity means more need for shipping.
(2) Value stocks historically outperform in rising rate environments, and most of the shipping stocks highlighted today have P/Es in the 4-6X range, putting them squarely in the value camp.


Shipping Stocks Set Sail; Buy DAC-US, SBLK-US, ZIM-US, GSL-US, GNK-US, GOGL-US, 316-HK,& MAERSK.B-DK

<ul>
<li>Q1 volume growth (+9.3%) beat market, and rising oil has not impacted results -- yet</li>
<li>Still, EBITDA in Ocean (container shipping) segment plunged 53% Y/Y on lower rates</li>
<li>Guidance from February unchanged, but medium-term outlook is downbeat; AVOID</li>
</ul>


Q1 volume growth (+9.3%) beat market, and rising oil has not impacted results -- yet
Still, EBITDA in Ocean (container shipping) segment plunged 53% Y/Y on lower rates
Guidance from February unchanged, but medium-term outlook is downbeat; AVOID


Maersk Q126 Results: Strong Volume Growth, Delayed Fuel Impact, But Profitability Still Plunged

Orient Overseas (International) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Spot <em>freight rates</em> are fading again in mid-April, despite ongoing conflict in Strait of Hormuz</li>
<li>Spot <em>fuel prices</em> remain high and we believe Q126 OP margins will show sharp compression</li>
<li>We expect shares in container segment to give back all of March's gains, and then some</li>
</ul>


Spot freight rates are fading again in mid-April, despite ongoing conflict in Strait of Hormuz
Spot fuel prices remain high and we believe Q126 OP margins will show sharp compression
We expect shares in container segment to give back all of March's gains, and then some


Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | March Price Weak, April Spot Rates, Too | Fuel Starting to Bite

<ul>
<li>Iran Conflict has driven up fuel prices near-term, which will eat into carrier profitability</li>
<li>But the conflict also delays potential Suez re-opening, which is positive for supply side</li>
<li>Shares of carriers have mostly jumped in March, with some up as much as 11% MTD </li>
</ul>


Iran Conflict has driven up fuel prices near-term, which will eat into carrier profitability
But the conflict also delays potential Suez re-opening, which is positive for supply side
Shares of carriers have mostly jumped in March, with some up as much as 11% MTD 


Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Iran Conflict Lifts Fuel Prices, Spot Rates, & Carrier Shares

Israel

ZIM Integrated Shipping Services Ltd provides shipping services. The Company offers multi-modal, cargo handling, tariff management, schedule information, and other related services. ZIM Integrated Shipping Services serves clients worldwide.

ZIM Integrated Shipping Services (ZIM US)

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ZIM Integrated Shipping Services (ZIM US)

Maersk Q226 Results: Price Gains Exceeded Fuel Cost Increases (By a Lot) | Guidance Lifted Again!

Maersk pushed price hard in Q226, more than offsetting high and rising fuel costs. The company also bumped up FY26 guidance for the second time in...

Tracking Traffic

Shipping Stocks Set Sail; Buy DAC-US, SBLK-US, ZIM-US, GSL-US, GNK-US, GOGL-US, 316-HK,& MAERSK.B-DK

Dry-bulk & energy shipping stocks are breaking out of bases, giving us a high degree of confidence that price and RS appreciation is likely to...

Vermilion Research

Maersk Q126 Results: Strong Volume Growth, Delayed Fuel Impact, But Profitability Still Plunged

In Copenhagen on May 7, Danish container giant AP Moller Maersk reported Q126 results that showed a sharp Y/Y decline in core profitability -- this...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | March Price Weak, April Spot Rates, Too | Fuel Starting to Bite

March price momentum remained weak, and now in mid-April spot rates are beginning to fall. Fuel costs have risen sharply, and Q1-Q2 carrier margins...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Iran Conflict Lifts Fuel Prices, Spot Rates, & Carrier Shares

The conflict in Iran has lead to a doubling of fuel prices, which adds to pressure on container carrier profitability. The group's outperformance...

Tracking Traffic

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