Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

Orient Overseas (International) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Deep-Sea container rates turned weaker again in Jan-Feb, likely obliterating carrier profits</li>
<li>Another round of US tariff uncertainty should dampen near-term NAM demand further</li>
<li>Excess supply, Suez re-opening, now US tariff chaos? SHORT deep-sea container carriers</li>
</ul>


Deep-Sea container rates turned weaker again in Jan-Feb, likely obliterating carrier profits
Another round of US tariff uncertainty should dampen near-term NAM demand further
Excess supply, Suez re-opening, now US tariff chaos? SHORT deep-sea container carriers


Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Weak Price in Jan-Feb | Softer NAM Demand | Now US Tariff Mess

AP Moeller - Maersk A/S / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>On Thursday February 5 Maersk reported in-line FY25 results and a Q425 EBIT loss in <em>Ocean</em>
</li>
<li>In FY26 Maersk expects a -40% Y/Y decline in EBITDA and an EBIT <strong>loss</strong> on lower freight rates</li>
<li>We expect smaller carriers (including Asian names) to suffer even more than Maersk in FY26</li>
</ul>


On Thursday February 5 Maersk reported in-line FY25 results and a Q425 EBIT loss in Ocean

In FY26 Maersk expects a -40% Y/Y decline in EBITDA and an EBIT loss on lower freight rates
We expect smaller carriers (including Asian names) to suffer even more than Maersk in FY26


Maersk FY25 Results and FY26 Guidance: Leading Carrier Expects FY26 EBIT Loss Due to Lower Rates

<ul>
<li>Weak price momentum and spot rates both improved somewhat in November-December</li>
<li>But we believe this improvement will quickly dissipate, due to still-poor end demand </li>
<li>We still see deep-sea container industry as entering a lengthy down-cycle; AVOID</li>
</ul>


Weak price momentum and spot rates both improved somewhat in November-December
But we believe this improvement will quickly dissipate, due to still-poor end demand 
We still see deep-sea container industry as entering a lengthy down-cycle; AVOID


Monthly Container Shipping Tracker: Recent Improvement in Price Likely to Dissipate Soon

<ul>
<li>Our measure of container shipping price momentum remained weak in October</li>
<li>Poor Q3 results and downbeat Q4/FY guidance from Maersk, Zim; and Suez re-opening?</li>
<li>Conditions are poor and will likely remain that way for a while; AVOID the sector</li>
</ul>


Our measure of container shipping price momentum remained weak in October
Poor Q3 results and downbeat Q4/FY guidance from Maersk, Zim; and Suez re-opening?
Conditions are poor and will likely remain that way for a while; AVOID the sector


Monthly Container Shipping Tracker: Poor Q3 Results, Weak Guidance, A Re-Opening of Suez? | AVOID

<ul>
<li>Core "Ocean" EBITDA fell by 55% Y/Y in Q325 due to lower average freight rates</li>
<li>Maersk lifted lower end of guidance range, but offered downbeat tone on Q4, 2026</li>
<li>Shares fell by 5% in response to Thursday's report; we remain negative on sector</li>
</ul>


Core "Ocean" EBITDA fell by 55% Y/Y in Q325 due to lower average freight rates
Maersk lifted lower end of guidance range, but offered downbeat tone on Q4, 2026
Shares fell by 5% in response to Thursday's report; we remain negative on sector


Maersk Q325 Results: Core Ocean Down 55% Y/Y | Downbeat Guidance from Management | Q425 Losses?

Israel

ZIM Integrated Shipping Services Ltd provides shipping services. The Company offers multi-modal, cargo handling, tariff management, schedule information, and other related services. ZIM Integrated Shipping Services serves clients worldwide.

ZIM Integrated Shipping Services (ZIM US)

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ZIM Integrated Shipping Services (ZIM US)

Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Weak Price in Jan-Feb | Softer NAM Demand | Now US Tariff Mess

January and February deep-sea container rates have softened noticeably, probably wiping out most carriers' profit margins altogether. Conditions...

Tracking Traffic

Maersk FY25 Results and FY26 Guidance: Leading Carrier Expects FY26 EBIT Loss Due to Lower Rates

Maersk managed to hit FY25 guidance, but also issued downbeat FY26 guidance, including an expected EBIT loss (at mid-point of range). Conditions in...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Container Shipping Tracker: Recent Improvement in Price Likely to Dissipate Soon

Although price momentum improved in recent weeks, we believe profit margins and returns for deep-sea container carriers will continue to...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Container Shipping Tracker: Poor Q3 Results, Weak Guidance, A Re-Opening of Suez? | AVOID

Weak pricing, declining earnings and cash flow, and the potential re-opening of the Suez Canal to ship traffic are all reasons to AVOID container...

Tracking Traffic

Maersk Q325 Results: Core Ocean Down 55% Y/Y | Downbeat Guidance from Management | Q425 Losses?

Maersk reported decent Q3 numbers last week, but management's downbeat tone & new guidance that suggests EBIT loss in Q4 should raise alarm bells...

Tracking Traffic

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