External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Equity Bottom-Up

Zoomlion Heavy Industry S A / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Zoomlion’s overseas sales remained strong in 2Q24 but were more than offset by the weakness in China.</li><li>We calculate that the core profit in 1H24 (after excluding gains on asset disposal) dropped 18% YoY to RMB1.65bn.</li><li>We revise down our 2024E-26E earnings forecast by 9.6-10.0%, after incorporating the weak demand for concrete machinery and cranes in China, as well as higher distribution expenses due to overseas expansion. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Zoomlion’s overseas sales remained strong in 2Q24 but were more than offset by the weakness in China.We calculate that the core profit in 1H24 (after excluding gains on asset disposal) dropped 18% YoY to RMB1.65bn.We revise down our 2024E-26E earnings forecast by 9.6-10.0%, after incorporating the weak demand for concrete machinery and cranes in China, as well as higher distribution expenses due to overseas expansion. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Zoomlion (000157 CH) - 1H24 Earnings Below Expectation

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

<ul>
<li>Industry wheel loader sales rose 15.2% in Aug, continuing the healthy momentum. A low base in 2H24 will be another favourable factor, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lonking-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3944:1" rel="noopener">Lonking Holdings (3339 HK)</a> is well placed.   </li>
<li>Forklift outlook will stay strong and serve as a growth engine. There is also a significant pick-up in demand for industry excavator sales in Jul and Aug.</li>
<li>Net cash amounted to 81% of the share price. Including investments, it will increase to 118%. Conservative FY24 consensus earnings forecast means potential upside surprise.</li>
</ul>


Industry wheel loader sales rose 15.2% in Aug, continuing the healthy momentum. A low base in 2H24 will be another favourable factor, and Lonking Holdings (3339 HK) is well placed.   
Forklift outlook will stay strong and serve as a growth engine. There is also a significant pick-up in demand for industry excavator sales in Jul and Aug.
Net cash amounted to 81% of the share price. Including investments, it will increase to 118%. Conservative FY24 consensus earnings forecast means potential upside surprise.


Lonking (3339 HK): Small and Beautiful, Net Cash Equal 81% of Share Price

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The two major earthmoving machinery, excavators and wheel loaders, saw double-digit sales volume growth in Aug, according to China Construction Machinery Association (CCMA).</li><li>Most notable is that exports of excavators grew 7% YoY to ~8k units in Aug, the first YoY growth since May 2023, an early sign of recovery.</li><li>Exports of wheel loaders remained strong with 22% growth in Aug. In China market, sales of excavators grew 18% YoY to 6.7k units in Aug, but the growth rate slowed gradually from 26%/22% in Jun/Jul. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The two major earthmoving machinery, excavators and wheel loaders, saw double-digit sales volume growth in Aug, according to China Construction Machinery Association (CCMA).Most notable is that exports of excavators grew 7% YoY to ~8k units in Aug, the first YoY growth since May 2023, an early sign of recovery.Exports of wheel loaders remained strong with 22% growth in Aug. In China market, sales of excavators grew 18% YoY to 6.7k units in Aug, but the growth rate slowed gradually from 26%/22% in Jun/Jul. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Capital Goods - Excavator Exports Grew for the First Time in 15 Months

Zoomlion Heavy Industry H / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We are convinced by Zoomlion’s impressive global expansion strategy.</li><li>On the product side, the offering of full range of machinery through an effective direct sales model enables Zoomlion to penetrate different key markets in overseas.</li><li>On regions, the priorities on emerging economies such as the Middle East, Middle Asia and Southeast Asia over Europe and North America make it subject to less geopolitical risks. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We are convinced by Zoomlion’s impressive global expansion strategy.On the product side, the offering of full range of machinery through an effective direct sales model enables Zoomlion to penetrate different key markets in overseas.On regions, the priorities on emerging economies such as the Middle East, Middle Asia and Southeast Asia over Europe and North America make it subject to less geopolitical risks. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Zoomlion (1157 HK) - Right Strategy on Product & Global Expansion

<ul><li>Zoomlion’s net profit in 2023 grew 51% YoY to RMB3.55bn, in line with the preannounced profit range of RMB3.38-3.62bn.</li><li>Zoomlion proposed dividends of RMB0.32/shr, implying a payout ratio of 78%.</li><li>With successful global growth strategy, overseas revenue contribution in 2H23 increased to 42%, up from 35%/24% in 1H23/2022. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Zoomlion’s net profit in 2023 grew 51% YoY to RMB3.55bn, in line with the preannounced profit range of RMB3.38-3.62bn.Zoomlion proposed dividends of RMB0.32/shr, implying a payout ratio of 78%.With successful global growth strategy, overseas revenue contribution in 2H23 increased to 42%, up from 35%/24% in 1H23/2022. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Zoomlion (000157 CH) - 2023 Net Profit in Line; Overseas Strategy a Successful Pay-Off

China

Zoomlion Heavy Industry Science and Technology Co., Ltd.manufactures and markets construction machinery.  The Company's products include concrete machinery, cranes, road machinery, drilling equipment, and other heavy construction equipment.  Zoomlion also produces environmental machinery and satellite navigation products.

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Zoomlion Heavy Industry H (1157 HK)

Zoomlion (000157 CH) - 1H24 Earnings Below Expectation

Our TP for Zoomlion A/H is revised down to RMB10.5/HK$6.8 with 2024E target P/E multiple unchanged at 22x/13x. Maintain BUY.

CMB International

Capital Goods - Excavator Exports Grew for the First Time in 15 Months

The two major earthmoving machinery, excavators and wheel loaders, saw double-digit sales volume growth in Aug, according to China Construction...

CMB International

Zoomlion (1157 HK) - Right Strategy on Product & Global Expansion

We are convinced by Zoomlion’s impressive global expansion strategy. On the product side, the offering of full range of machinery through an...

CMB International

Zoomlion (000157 CH) - 2023 Net Profit in Line; Overseas Strategy a Successful Pay-Off

Zoomlion’s net profit in 2023 grew 51% YoY to RMB3.55bn, in line with the preannounced profit range of RMB3.38-3.62bn. Zoomlion proposed dividends...

CMB International

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Zoomlion (000157 CH) - 1H24 Earnings Below Expectation

Our TP for Zoomlion A/H is revised down to RMB10.5/HK$6.8 with 2024E target P/E multiple unchanged at 22x/13x. Maintain BUY.

CMB International

Lonking (3339 HK): Small and Beautiful, Net Cash Equal 81% of Share Price

​Industry wheel loader sales surged in Jul-Aug and the forklift outlook is strong. Current forecasts for Lonking are conservative with an upside...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Capital Goods - Excavator Exports Grew for the First Time in 15 Months

The two major earthmoving machinery, excavators and wheel loaders, saw double-digit sales volume growth in Aug, according to China Construction...

CMB International

Zoomlion (1157 HK) - Right Strategy on Product & Global Expansion

We are convinced by Zoomlion’s impressive global expansion strategy. On the product side, the offering of full range of machinery through an...

CMB International

Zoomlion (000157 CH) - 2023 Net Profit in Line; Overseas Strategy a Successful Pay-Off

Zoomlion’s net profit in 2023 grew 51% YoY to RMB3.55bn, in line with the preannounced profit range of RMB3.38-3.62bn. Zoomlion proposed dividends...

CMB International

Industry wheel loader sales surged in Jul-Aug and the forklift outlook is strong. Current forecasts for Lonking are conservative with an upside...