HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The market is underestimating <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lonking-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3944:1" rel="noopener">Lonking (3339 HK)</a>'s earnings, with consensus forecasts pointing to an 8.5% decline in 2H26. Instead, industry wheel loader sales grew 30.8% in Jul. </li>
<li>Its net cash surged 2.8x in the last ten years, and by end-FY26, it will reach Rmb8.2bn, or 73.9% of its current market capitalisation.</li>
<li>FY26-28F average ROE will reach 12.4%, the highest in the last five years, justifying its 0.9x P/B. Ex-net cash, its FY25 ROE will instead be 23.5%.</li>
</ul>


The market is underestimating Lonking (3339 HK)'s earnings, with consensus forecasts pointing to an 8.5% decline in 2H26. Instead, industry wheel loader sales grew 30.8% in Jul. 
Its net cash surged 2.8x in the last ten years, and by end-FY26, it will reach Rmb8.2bn, or 73.9% of its current market capitalisation.
FY26-28F average ROE will reach 12.4%, the highest in the last five years, justifying its 0.9x P/B. Ex-net cash, its FY25 ROE will instead be 23.5%.


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lonking-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3944:1" rel="noopener">Lonking Holdings (3339 HK)</a>'s positive profit alert suggested that FY24 earnings will beat the market consensus by a significant 25.8-34.6%. </li>
<li>Better profitability indicates that it will further accumulate net cash. At an unchanged 50% payout ratio, it yields 7.8%, but at a higher payout of 70%, it will be 10.9%.</li>
<li>Trading on 0.59x P/B, it is at the historical average valuation. If 1SD above average, there will be a 20% upside. It will go to HK$2.20 if 2SD above.</li>
</ul>



Lonking Holdings (3339 HK)'s positive profit alert suggested that FY24 earnings will beat the market consensus by a significant 25.8-34.6%. 
Better profitability indicates that it will further accumulate net cash. At an unchanged 50% payout ratio, it yields 7.8%, but at a higher payout of 70%, it will be 10.9%.
Trading on 0.59x P/B, it is at the historical average valuation. If 1SD above average, there will be a 20% upside. It will go to HK$2.20 if 2SD above.


Lonking (3339 HK): A (Massive) Positive Profit Alert

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>China will roll out its 2026 - 2030 five-year plan this month, which outline the economic and social roadmap until the end of the decade.  </li>
<li>Historically the five-year plans have been a roadmap for investors to look for tailwinds for economic sector performance.  We believe the high-tech industries will remain the main focus for investment.</li>
<li>Exporters of high-end equipment and machinery will continue to benefit with the consumption sector being a focus for international investors.</li>
</ul>


China will roll out its 2026 - 2030 five-year plan this month, which outline the economic and social roadmap until the end of the decade.  
Historically the five-year plans have been a roadmap for investors to look for tailwinds for economic sector performance.  We believe the high-tech industries will remain the main focus for investment.
Exporters of high-end equipment and machinery will continue to benefit with the consumption sector being a focus for international investors.


EMERGING THEMES: China's Next 5 Year Plan

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lonking-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3944:1" rel="noopener">Lonking Holdings (3339 HK)</a>, as the leader in wheel loader, should see strong profit as industry sales grew 30% in Dec 2025 and 18.4% in FY25.</li>
<li>Export will be an important driver with the government's push for overseas expansion of high-end manufacturing. In FY25, industry export sales reached 51.5% of total. </li>
<li>Net cash, including investments, equals HK$2.06/share, 66.8% of the share price. This provides room for higher dividend and highlight its value. </li>
</ul>



Lonking Holdings (3339 HK), as the leader in wheel loader, should see strong profit as industry sales grew 30% in Dec 2025 and 18.4% in FY25.
Export will be an important driver with the government's push for overseas expansion of high-end manufacturing. In FY25, industry export sales reached 51.5% of total. 
Net cash, including investments, equals HK$2.06/share, 66.8% of the share price. This provides room for higher dividend and highlight its value. 


Lonking (3339 HK): Another Great Year, with 67% of Share Price Is Net Cash

<ul>
<li>Industry sales of wheel loaders and excavators surged 16.5% and 27.2% in 2M25. For Feb alone, the growth rates are even more impressive at 34.4% and 52.8%, respectively.</li>
<li>Post-CNY, the utilisation hours and rates of construction machinery rose 70.3% YoY and 12.3pp. Market share gain in developing countries will drive exports.</li>
<li>Government supportive policies announced in NPC will provide support to demand. Current consensus forecasts for profit decline in FY25 are disconnected from industry data.</li>
</ul>


Industry sales of wheel loaders and excavators surged 16.5% and 27.2% in 2M25. For Feb alone, the growth rates are even more impressive at 34.4% and 52.8%, respectively.
Post-CNY, the utilisation hours and rates of construction machinery rose 70.3% YoY and 12.3pp. Market share gain in developing countries will drive exports.
Government supportive policies announced in NPC will provide support to demand. Current consensus forecasts for profit decline in FY25 are disconnected from industry data.


China

Zoomlion Heavy Industry Science & Technology Co., Ltd. is a Chinese manufacturer primarily engaged in the research, development, manufacturing, and sales of high-tech equipment, including construction machinery, agricultural machinery, and environmental industry equipment. Its key products encompass cranes, excavators, concrete machinery, and tractors. The company was founded in 1992 and is headquartered in Changsha, Hunan, China.

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Zoomlion (1157 HK)

Lonking (3339 HK): Ballooning Cash

Lonking's 1H26 earnings of Rmb773.1m are at the high end of its profit alert range, implying a 22.4% growth. Gross margin expanded an encouraging...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Lonking (3339 HK): A (Massive) Positive Profit Alert

Lonking's net profit reached Rmb1.02bn in FY24, a 57.8% growth. For 2H24, net profit surged 65.7%, with gross margin expanding 2pp. A final DPS of...

Osbert Tang, CFA

EMERGING THEMES: China's Next 5 Year Plan

China will roll out its 2026 - 2030 five-year plan this month, outlining the economic and social roadmap until the end of the decade.Historically...

David Mudd

Lonking (3339 HK): Boom, Boom, Boom

Sany Intl's net profit grew 23.2% in 1Q25, suggesting good momentum for the construction and heavy machinery demand. CCMA data also indicated that...

Osbert Tang, CFA

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Lonking (3339 HK): Ballooning Cash

Lonking's 1H26 earnings of Rmb773.1m are at the high end of its profit alert range, implying a 22.4% growth. Gross margin expanded an encouraging...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Lonking (3339 HK): A (Massive) Positive Profit Alert

Lonking's net profit reached Rmb1.02bn in FY24, a 57.8% growth. For 2H24, net profit surged 65.7%, with gross margin expanding 2pp. A final DPS of...

Osbert Tang, CFA

EMERGING THEMES: China's Next 5 Year Plan

China will roll out its 2026 - 2030 five-year plan this month, outlining the economic and social roadmap until the end of the decade.Historically...

David Mudd

Lonking (3339 HK): Another Great Year, with 67% of Share Price Is Net Cash

Just 8 days after our Insight, Lonking issued a FY25 profit alert for Rmb1,250-1,330m, 9-16% higher than the consensus. Key reasons are strong...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Lonking (3339 HK): Boom, Boom, Boom

Sany Intl's net profit grew 23.2% in 1Q25, suggesting good momentum for the construction and heavy machinery demand. CCMA data also indicated that...

Osbert Tang, CFA