IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cimc-vehicles-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28012:1" rel="noopener">CIMC Vehicle Group Co Ltd (1839 HK)</a> announced the H Share buyback offer, excluding CIMC’s shares, is at HK$7.50, a 16.5% premium to the undisturbed price. The offer is final.</li>
<li>The key condition is approval by at least 75% of independent H Shareholders (&lt;10% of all independent H Shareholders rejection) along with a 90% minimum acceptance condition.  </li>
<li>Excluding the irrevocables, the 90% threshold requires an independent H Shareholder acceptance rate of 77.7%, which could be challenging due to a light offer. Risk/reward unfavourable. </li>
</ul>



CIMC Vehicle Group Co Ltd (1839 HK) announced the H Share buyback offer, excluding CIMC’s shares, is at HK$7.50, a 16.5% premium to the undisturbed price. The offer is final.
The key condition is approval by at least 75% of independent H Shareholders (&lt;10% of all independent H Shareholders rejection) along with a 90% minimum acceptance condition.  
Excluding the irrevocables, the 90% threshold requires an independent H Shareholder acceptance rate of 77.7%, which could be challenging due to a light offer. Risk/reward unfavourable. 


CIMC Vehicles (1839 HK): Min Acceptance Condition a Risk for the Final HK$7.50 Offer

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the monthly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine.</li>
<li>We tabulate the top stocks by inflows, outflows, and holding by mainland investors.</li>
<li>We highlight inflows into CNOOC, China Telecom, China Mobile, Li Auto, Meituan. </li>
</ul>


We analyze the monthly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine.
We tabulate the top stocks by inflows, outflows, and holding by mainland investors.
We highlight inflows into CNOOC, China Telecom, China Mobile, Li Auto, Meituan. 


Hong Kong Connect Flows (February): CNOOC, China Telecom, China Mobile, Li Auto, Meituan

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 146 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 128.5% as of Jan 26th.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by -0.6ppt week-on-week, led by energy, industrials, health care and offset by real estate, communication services, information technology.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Haier Smart Home, China Tourism, Conch Cement, Tsingtao Brew, Gwmotor, China Energy Engineering, Tianqi Lithium Corporation.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 146 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 128.5% as of Jan 26th.
The average A-H premium changed by -0.6ppt week-on-week, led by energy, industrials, health care and offset by real estate, communication services, information technology.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Haier Smart Home, China Tourism, Conch Cement, Tsingtao Brew, Gwmotor, China Energy Engineering, Tianqi Lithium Corporation.


A-H Premium Weekly (Jan 26th): Haier Smart, China Tourism, Conch Cement, Tsingtao Brew, GWM

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>For Chinese machinery manufacturers, penetration overseas remains a longterm driver.</li><li>That said, with growth trend reversing since mid-2023 after 2-3 years of extraordinary growth, the way to overseas expansion will likely be bumpy in 2024E, especially when the overseas competitors are recovering from the supply chain bottleneck.</li><li>Geographically, we expect strong demand to continue in the US and the Middle East, but weakness in Europe and China. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

For Chinese machinery manufacturers, penetration overseas remains a longterm driver.That said, with growth trend reversing since mid-2023 after 2-3 years of extraordinary growth, the way to overseas expansion will likely be bumpy in 2024E, especially when the overseas competitors are recovering from the supply chain bottleneck.Geographically, we expect strong demand to continue in the US and the Middle East, but weakness in Europe and China. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Construction Machinery / HDT – 2024 Outlook

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cimc-vehicles-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28012:1" rel="noopener">CIMC Vehicle Group Co Ltd (1839 HK)</a> possible H Share buyback offer, excluding <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-international-marine-cntnrs-gp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11752:1" rel="noopener">China International Marine Cntnrs Gp (2039 HK)</a>’s shares, is HK$7.00, an 8.7% premium to the undisturbed price. </li>
<li>The key condition is approval by at least 75% of independent H Shareholders (&lt;10% of all independent H Shareholders rejection). There could also be a 90% minimum acceptance condition.</li>
<li>The offer is light, but independent H shareholders holding blocking stakes will likely be supportive. The final offer will be made on “same or better terms”, suggesting a potential bump.</li>
</ul>



CIMC Vehicle Group Co Ltd (1839 HK) possible H Share buyback offer, excluding China International Marine Cntnrs Gp (2039 HK)’s shares, is HK$7.00, an 8.7% premium to the undisturbed price. 
The key condition is approval by at least 75% of independent H Shareholders (&lt;10% of all independent H Shareholders rejection). There could also be a 90% minimum acceptance condition.
The offer is light, but independent H shareholders holding blocking stakes will likely be supportive. The final offer will be made on “same or better terms”, suggesting a potential bump.


CIMC Vehicles (1839 HK): Possible H Share Buyback Offer

China

Zoomlion Heavy Industry Science and Technology Co., Ltd.manufactures and markets construction machinery.  The Company's products include concrete machinery, cranes, road machinery, drilling equipment, and other heavy construction equipment.  Zoomlion also produces environmental machinery and satellite navigation products.

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Zoomlion Heavy Industry H (1157 HK)

CIMC Vehicles (1839 HK): Min Acceptance Condition a Risk for the Final HK$7.50 Offer

The 90% min acceptance condition is a key risk in the context of a light offer. Risk/reward is unfavourable as the downside (9.9% to undisturbed...

Arun George

Hong Kong Connect Flows (February): CNOOC, China Telecom, China Mobile, Li Auto, Meituan

Analysis of monthly Hong Kong Connect flows reveals top stocks attracting mainland investors, including CNOOC, China Telecom, China Mobile, Li...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

A-H Premium Weekly (Jan 26th): Haier Smart, China Tourism, Conch Cement, Tsingtao Brew, GWM

We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Haier Smart Home, China Tourism, Conch Cement, Tsingtao Brew, Gwmotor, China Energy Engineering,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

China Construction Machinery / HDT – 2024 Outlook

That said, with growth trend reversing since mid-2023 after 2-3 years of extraordinary growth, the way to overseas expansion will likely be bumpy...

CMB International

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

CIMC Vehicles (1839 HK): Min Acceptance Condition a Risk for the Final HK$7.50 Offer

The 90% min acceptance condition is a key risk in the context of a light offer. Risk/reward is unfavourable as the downside (9.9% to undisturbed...

Arun George

Hong Kong Connect Flows (February): CNOOC, China Telecom, China Mobile, Li Auto, Meituan

​Analysis of monthly Hong Kong Connect flows reveals top stocks attracting mainland investors, including CNOOC, China Telecom, China Mobile, Li...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

A-H Premium Weekly (Jan 26th): Haier Smart, China Tourism, Conch Cement, Tsingtao Brew, GWM

We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Haier Smart Home, China Tourism, Conch Cement, Tsingtao Brew, Gwmotor, China Energy Engineering,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

China Construction Machinery / HDT – 2024 Outlook

That said, with growth trend reversing since mid-2023 after 2-3 years of extraordinary growth, the way to overseas expansion will likely be bumpy...

CMB International

CIMC Vehicles (1839 HK): Possible H Share Buyback Offer

The offer is light, but independent H shareholders holding blocking stakes will likely be supportive. The final offer will be made on “same or...

Arun George

Analysis of monthly Hong Kong Connect flows reveals top stocks attracting mainland investors, including CNOOC, China Telecom, China Mobile, Li...