Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

China Suntien Green Energy / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>AH Premia continues to trend slightly higher on average (see first chart below). Bumpy, but AH premia are up 3 of last four trading weeks. Quiddity Portfolio Alpha continues positive.</li>
<li>There continue to be some really big moves on pairs. This past week it was <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-suntien-green-energy-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17269:1" rel="noopener">China Suntien Green Energy (956 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/datang-international-power-generation-company-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3664:1" rel="noopener">Datang International (991 HK)</a> - both widened sharply.</li>
<li>The data tables below update daily in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Tools</a> section of Smartkarma. The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools/quiddity/south-flow-monitor" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Southbound Flow Monitor</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools/quiddity/ah-shares-monitor" target="_blank" rel="noopener">AH Pairs Monitor</a> are both there - free for all SK readers. Recently used tools are now sticky.</li>
</ul>


AH Premia continues to trend slightly higher on average (see first chart below). Bumpy, but AH premia are up 3 of last four trading weeks. Quiddity Portfolio Alpha continues positive.
There continue to be some really big moves on pairs. This past week it was China Suntien Green Energy (956 HK) and Datang International (991 HK) - both widened sharply.
The data tables below update daily in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The Southbound Flow Monitor and AH Pairs Monitor are both there - free for all SK readers. Recently used tools are now sticky.


A/H Premium Tracker (2 Wks to 13 Mar 26); AH Wider Again - Pharmas & Tech Too Wide

Head of China Research - Forsyth Barr Asia, Forsyth Barr Asia

David Millhouse

Head of China Research - Forsyth Barr Asia

Forsyth Barr Asia

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

China is proposing an overhaul of its foreign-investment rules, which some news sources are saying is "the biggest revamp of China’s rules governing foreign investment since Deng Xiaoping introduced elements of capitalism into the economy in the late 1970s." The draft looks to unify regulations overseeing foreign investment in China, scale back restrictions and begin regulating the variable interest entities (VIE) that are commonly used to circumvent foreign-ownership limits. The ministry said the rules should “promote foreign investment and normalize foreign investment management.” This represents a major step toward the formal regulation of the use of VIE structures in foreign investments in China, as well as simplifying rules for foreign companies looking to invest in China. Thoughts and implications of the changes below

 China is proposing an overhaul of its foreign-investment rules, which some news sources are saying is "the biggest revamp of China’s rules governing foreign investment since Deng Xiaoping introduced elements of capitalism into the economy in the late 1970s." The draft looks to unify regulations overseeing foreign investment in China, scale back restrictions and begin regulating the variable interest entities (VIE) that are commonly used to circumvent foreign-ownership limits. The ministry said the rules should “promote foreign investment and normalize foreign investment management.” This represents a major step toward the formal regulation of the use of VIE structures in foreign investments in China, as well as simplifying rules for foreign companies looking to invest in China. Thoughts and implications of the changes below

CHINA REFORM & ADRs:  Big overhaul of foreign investment rules in China. Thoughts and implications

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 176 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 66.6% as of Feb 27th.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by 3.4ppt week-on-week, led by health care, financials, consumer discretionary.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for YOFC, Anhui Conch Cement, ZTE, Huaneng Power International.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 176 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 66.6% as of Feb 27th.
The average A-H premium changed by 3.4ppt week-on-week, led by health care, financials, consumer discretionary.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for YOFC, Anhui Conch Cement, ZTE, Huaneng Power International.


A-H Premium Weekly (Feb 27th): YOFC, Anhui Conch Cement, ZTE, Huaneng Power International

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There could be 2 constituent changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-china-large-cap-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:766:1" rel="noopener">iShares China Large-Cap (FXI) (FXI US)</a> ETF in March.</li>
<li>We estimate passive trackers will need to buy 0.6-0.8x ADV in the adds and need to sell between 0.4-1.2x ADV in the deletes.</li>
<li>Short interest is highest in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zte-corp-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6922:1" rel="noopener">ZTE Corp (763 HK)</a> (as a percentage of float) and in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-minsheng-banking-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8983:1" rel="noopener">China Minsheng Banking H (1988 HK)</a> (in terms of days of ADV to cover).</li>
</ul>


There could be 2 constituent changes for the iShares China Large-Cap (FXI) (FXI US) ETF in March.
We estimate passive trackers will need to buy 0.6-0.8x ADV in the adds and need to sell between 0.4-1.2x ADV in the deletes.
Short interest is highest in ZTE Corp (763 HK) (as a percentage of float) and in China Minsheng Banking H (1988 HK) (in terms of days of ADV to cover).


FXI Rebalance Preview: Two Changes Likely in March

Zijin Gold International / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There could be 3 constituent changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-china-large-cap-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:766:1" rel="noopener">iShares China Large-Cap (FXI) (FXI US)</a> ETF in March. With two weeks left in the review period, that number could change.</li>
<li>There will be multiple inflows for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zijin-gold-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45448:1" rel="noopener">Zijin Gold (2259 HK)</a> over the next few months, and this inclusion will take place simultaneously with inclusion in a global index.</li>
<li>The forecast adds are up over the last year and trading at/near their highs. The forecast deletions are trading higher from a year ago but down from the highs.</li>
</ul>


There could be 3 constituent changes for the iShares China Large-Cap (FXI) (FXI US) ETF in March. With two weeks left in the review period, that number could change.
There will be multiple inflows for Zijin Gold (2259 HK) over the next few months, and this inclusion will take place simultaneously with inclusion in a global index.
The forecast adds are up over the last year and trading at/near their highs. The forecast deletions are trading higher from a year ago but down from the highs.


FXI Rebalance Preview: Three Changes Likely in March

China

ZTE Corporation develops and markets switches, access servers, videoconferencing systems, mobile communication systems, data communication devices, and optical communication devices.  The Company also offers networking solutions for setup, refurbishment and optimization of networks.

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Zte Corp A (000063 CH)

A/H Premium Tracker (2 Wks to 13 Mar 26); AH Wider Again - Pharmas & Tech Too Wide

AH Premia continue to drift gently higher. Overall, spreads are middle of the last 52wk range but some are getting very wide again.

Travis Lundy

CHINA REFORM & ADRs: Big overhaul of foreign investment rules in China. Thoughts and implications

China is proposing an overhaul of its foreign-investment rules, which some news sources are saying is "the biggest revamp of China’s rules...

David Millhouse

A-H Premium Weekly (Feb 27th): YOFC, Anhui Conch Cement, ZTE, Huaneng Power International

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for YOFC, Anhui Conch Cement, ZTE, Huaneng Power International.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

FXI Rebalance Preview: Two Changes Likely in March

There could be 2 constituent changes for the FXI ETF in March. Passive trackers will need to buy 0.6-0.8x ADV in the adds and sell between 0.4-1.2x...

Brian Freitas

FXI Rebalance Preview: Three Changes Likely in March

We currently forecast 3 changes for the ETF in March. Given market volatility, that number could increase in the next 2 weeks. Zijin Gold is also...

Brian Freitas

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