External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>ZTO delivered impressive reported/core net profit growth of 84%/67% in 1Q23, which is better than expectations.</li><li>Most importantly, ZTO revises up the full year parcel volume growth target to 20-24% YoY (up from 18-22% in Mar), implying 1.5ppt (YoY) potential market share gain.</li><li>Besides, ZTO targets to achieve RMB0.05-0.07 (~5-7%) of unit cost reduction this year. .</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

ZTO delivered impressive reported/core net profit growth of 84%/67% in 1Q23, which is better than expectations.Most importantly, ZTO revises up the full year parcel volume growth target to 20-24% YoY (up from 18-22% in Mar), implying 1.5ppt (YoY) potential market share gain.Besides, ZTO targets to achieve RMB0.05-0.07 (~5-7%) of unit cost reduction this year. .Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

ZTO Express (ZTO US) – Best of both worlds

China/Asia TMT

Shawn Yang

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

<ul>
<li>ZTO reported C1Q23 top-line, IFRS EBIT, and non-IFRS net income (3.1%), 30%, and 30% vs. our est. ZTO raised volume est. to 20-24% YoY; </li>
<li>Margin beat as parcel cost was (8%) vs. our est., but we suggest also due to (1) parcel mix improvements, (2) output-based pay, and (3) lower % of KA customers; </li>
<li>Maintain BUY and raise TP to US$ 38 due improving gross profit per parcel and an end in-sight for CAPEX spending. Our TP implies 24x P/2023E.</li>
</ul>


ZTO reported C1Q23 top-line, IFRS EBIT, and non-IFRS net income (3.1%), 30%, and 30% vs. our est. ZTO raised volume est. to 20-24% YoY; 
Margin beat as parcel cost was (8%) vs. our est., but we suggest also due to (1) parcel mix improvements, (2) output-based pay, and (3) lower % of KA customers; 
Maintain BUY and raise TP to US$ 38 due improving gross profit per parcel and an end in-sight for CAPEX spending. Our TP implies 24x P/2023E.


[ZTO Express (ZTO US, BUY, TP US$38) TP Change]: Margin Improves While Capex Intensity Nears Peak

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zto-express" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23628:1" rel="noopener">ZTO Express (ZTO US)</a> parcel volume increased by 20.5% Y/Y in Q1, better than market growth</li>
<li>Unit prices fell by 3.7%, slightly worse than peers in Q1 2023, and Revenue missed consensus</li>
<li>EPS beat expectations on lower unit costs, and management raised full-year volume target</li>
</ul>



ZTO Express (ZTO US) parcel volume increased by 20.5% Y/Y in Q1, better than market growth
Unit prices fell by 3.7%, slightly worse than peers in Q1 2023, and Revenue missed consensus
EPS beat expectations on lower unit costs, and management raised full-year volume target


ZTO Express Q1 Results Surprise: Despite Lower Pricing, Margins Up Y/Y | Mgmt Raises Volume Guidance

<ul>
<li>Q423 revenue growth, core margins, and expense control all looked strong</li>
<li>Evolving revenue mix bodes well for long-term improvement in core margin</li>
<li>Buyback update &amp; Q124 guidance both +ive; appears cheap at 14x consensus</li>
</ul>


Q423 revenue growth, core margins, and expense control all looked strong
Evolving revenue mix bodes well for long-term improvement in core margin
Buyback update &amp; Q124 guidance both +ive; appears cheap at 14x consensus


Full Truck Alliance: Strong Q423 Results | Solid Q124 Guidance | Cheap at 14x Consensus '24 EPS

Cainiao Smart Logistics Network / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>For certain companies now seeking IPOs, X-border volumes may serve as demand proxy</li>
<li>In 2023, Chinese X-border volume growth has accelerated, up +55% Y/Y through September</li>
<li>In developing X-border express market, lower ASPs are actually a good thing, in our view</li>
</ul>


For certain companies now seeking IPOs, X-border volumes may serve as demand proxy
In 2023, Chinese X-border volume growth has accelerated, up +55% Y/Y through September
In developing X-border express market, lower ASPs are actually a good thing, in our view


Introducing Monthly Tracking of Chinese X-Border Express Parcel Data | YTD Volume up +55%, ASPs -25%

China

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. operates as an express delivery company. The Company provides express delivery service through their nationwide network, as well as other value-added logistics services. ZTO Express serves customers globally.

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ZTO Express Cayman (ZTO US)

ZTO Express (ZTO US) – Best of both worlds

Most importantly, ZTO revises up the full year parcel volume growth target to 20-24% YoY (up from 18-22% in Mar), implying 1.5ppt (YoY) potential...

CMB International

[ZTO Express (ZTO US, BUY, TP US$38) TP Change]: Margin Improves While Capex Intensity Nears Peak

Margin beat as parcel cost was (8%) vs. our est., we suggest also due to (1) parcel mix improvements, (2) output-based pay, and (3) lower % of KA...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

ZTO Express Q1 Results Surprise: Despite Lower Pricing, Margins Up Y/Y | Mgmt Raises Volume Guidance

ZTO's Q1 results showed strong volume growth, but also weaker unit pricing and a lack of control over SG&A expenses. We retain our negative view on...

Tracking Traffic

Full Truck Alliance: Strong Q423 Results | Solid Q124 Guidance | Cheap at 14x Consensus '24 EPS

Strong Q4 results from Full Truck Alliance, and growth in all the right places. Guidance for Q1 suggests no slowdown in early '24, and shares are...

Tracking Traffic

Introducing Monthly Tracking of Chinese X-Border Express Parcel Data | YTD Volume up +55%, ASPs -25%

Chinese X-border express parcel volume growth has accelerated dramatically in 2023, and unit pricing has fallen sharply. In this note we dissect...

Tracking Traffic

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