Marlon Marcos

Energy prices are squeezing higher amid low inventories and resilient demand, building more inflation than many forecast.
Second-Round effects are small, but UK inflation expectations are anchored above the target, and monetary conditions aren’t tight.
We see hikes from the BoE in Nov-26 and the ECB/Fed in Dec-26. Market pricing looks too stretched given dovish policymaker bias.

2. HEW: Broadly Blowing Tighter

Energy supply is tightening due to intensified attacks in the Strait of Hormuz and a US hurricane. Fed minutes and ECB meeting accounts also confirm a tightening bias.
A failure by the UK Green Party leader to significantly increase support for the left in a by-election also reduces the political pressure on PM Burnham to loosen fiscal policy.
Next week features US inflation data that are set to show another rise with energy prices. UK GDP and the final EA inflation print are other highlights for us.

3. US TREASURIES: Where Bonds Go, Stocks Will Follow!!

The US bond market is rapidly moving against investors, and, absent a sea-change event, the equity market will eventually follow. The positive bond-stock correlation reinforces equity market risk.
The 5.25% level on the 10-year has been a turning point for the equity/bond relationship, flipping correlations from negative to positive.
The MOVE/VIX level of 6.6 is precarious and likely to resolve with a rise in the VIX, leading to a corresponding fall in equity prices.

4. Fed: Hawkish Minutes, Softer Data

The Fed minutes confirm that the unsurprising 25bp September hike had unanimous backing, including from non-voters, and that most officials favoured another increase by year-end.
Several saw policy as only mildly restrictive, while a couple explicitly raised their neutral-rate estimates, reinforcing a higher-for-longer stance.
Softer post-meeting inflation and payroll data favour an October pause, but our call for a December rate hike remains likely.

5. ECB: December Hike Reinforced

The ECB meeting accounts confirm unanimous support for the unsurprising 25bp hike delivered in September, and provide no basis to treat it as the end of the cycle.
All members saw upside inflation risks, while one judged the adverse energy scenario likelier than the baseline, reinforcing a December hike.
A 2.5% rate is still seen within the range of staff neutral estimates. Resilient activity and above-target core inflation leave scope for another 25bp increase.

6. Rare Earth Elements: U.S. SMUGGLING ILLICITS CHINA CRACKDOWN !!

As with US efforts to thwart Chinese smuggling of chips to meet its AI demand, China cannot fully stop US smuggling of REEs and high-powered permanent magnets.
Chinese official policy holds that applying export controls to rare earths is consistent with international practice because they can be used for both civilian and military purposes.
U.S. is 80% import-dependent on REEs, with China supplying 80% of those imports. It is a 100% net importer of REEs produced via China’s magnet rare earth concentrate (mREC) process.

7. Portfolio Update: Broader Commodity Positioning, Narrow Equity Leadership

By Mark Tinker, Market Thinker

U.S. small caps, metals and mining stocks, and gold were key detractors within the portfolio suite, offsetting positive allocation effects in our underweight fixed income exposure.
Aggressive portfolios maintained their outperformance YTD driven by strong selections within the equity asset class.
Positioning changes include commodity diversification beyond gold, adding Japanese equities, and maintaining an underweight to bonds.

8. U.S. Midterms Elections: What a Trump Without Congress Means for Markets

By Mo Aziz

Democrats are favoured to win Congress, but even a sweep cannot remove Trump or overturn his vetoes, tariffs and pardons. Expect investigations and friction, not reversal.
Losing Congress will not calm Trump’s style; it redirects it. With no re-election to protect, expect him to be contained at home and unleashed abroad, as in 2019.
Unlike 2019, the Fed is hiking and the 10-year is above 5%. Own cheap index protection, a curve steepener, defence and staples, and Asia hedges to January.

9. The (funding) Wall of Worry

Will AI kill us, or the companies building it? Or the bond market?
Will the smartest guys in the room once again blow up markets as their cost of funding rises?
When will bonds v Equities mean revert? Will Congress take back control of US war(s)?

10. Asian Equities: Valuations in ASEAN Markets Are More Divergent than Rest of Asia

By Manishi Raychaudhuri, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Malaysia’s PE and P/BV are at significant discounts to their long-term means. Thailand is at a small discount. Indonesia and Philippines are at very large discounts to their long-term averages.
Singapore’s PE and P/BV are at large premiums to long-term averages. Despite the improvement in governance and high dividend yield, they don’t seem justified by forward EPS growth and ROE.
In the near term, Indonesia, Philippines, Malaysia could rerate. However, “higher for longer” US yields could prevent significant rerating of the first two. Thai valuations could stay flat for now.

Sep 27

Weekly Top Ten Macro and Cross Asset Strategy – Sep 27, 2026

By Marlon Marcos | Macro and Cross Asset Strategy

This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Macro and Cross Asset Strategy on Smartkarma.

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1. Wall Street Vs Silicon Valley: AI Cannot Pay for Itself, so It Will Come for the Businesses that Can

By Mo Aziz

AI’s Next Battle Is Not Models — It Is the US$4tn+ Fee Pools Around Them, From Financial Services to Advertising and Information
Silicon Valley Has the Scale and Cost Advantage; Wall Street Has the Licences, Balance Sheets and Relationships to Defend the Fortress
Our Outcome: A Bifurcated Oligopoly — AI Captures Unlicensed Thinking, While Regulated Incumbents Defend Clients but Surrender Pricing Power

2. India Equities: Stocks to Watch After Deep Underperformance

India reversed its entire relative gain against EM. The near 50% relative drawdown is the deepest and longest since 2012, so we’re positioning for improvement.
Bottom-Decile losses in India have historically preceded strong rebounds. Although relative washouts offer no comparable evidence. We can scale up on an absoute basis.
Opportunity in the middle of the index. We built a tiered watch list from the middle cohort, scaling toward equal weight as confirmation arrives.

3. HEW: Broadening Rate Rises

Hopeful easing of energy price pressures didn’t disrupt the rising trend in interest rates, aided by PMI data showing sustained resilience and the ongoing fiscal profligacy.
The Norges Bank delivered a hike, despite dovish hopes to stop it, while the Riksbank signalled it will start hiking before year-end, and even the SNB opened a hawkish door.
Next week is the RBA’s turn to be hawkish to avoid unwelcome FX pressures. US payrolls and higher EA inflation are the week’s highlights in the macro data.

4. SNB: Franc Shifts the Balance

By Lars Kreckel, Sentiment Matters

The SNB held its policy rate at 0%, as unanimously forecast, judging that higher headline inflation does not yet warrant tightening.
A weaker franc and elevated energy costs have lifted the inflation path, but forecasts of 0.8% in 2027 and 2028 still support a prolonged hold.
Rate rises require broader, persistent inflation; renewed franc strength or weaker global demand would instead reinforce the 0% floor.

5. Sentiment Matters: The Biggest Consensus Longs and Shorts

Where is the market most crowded — and where could the consensus be most vulnerable? This note uses our cross-asset sentiment rankings to find out.
Technology, Industrial Metals and Energy remain among the strongest consensus longs, with bullish sentiment elevated enough to raise the hurdle for further positive surprises.
Health Care and High Yield sit near the bearish end of the ranking, but Health Care offers the cleaner contrarian setup given broader and more extreme pessimism.

6. Riksbank Holds Now to Hike Later

The Riksbank held at 1.75%, as unanimously expected, but its higher rate path confirms a 2026 increase in the base case, with more in 2027.
Stronger demand, a weaker krona and higher energy costs raise second-round inflation risks, despite underlying inflation remaining near 2%.
Future hikes hinge on adjusted inflation, demand and labour-market resilience, the krona, energy prices and fiscal policy.

7. Technically Speaking Breakouts & Breakdowns – HONG KONG (September 2026)

The Hong Kong market continues to drift sideways this month, trading above its long-term support levels but unable to rally past strong resistance at 27100.
The healthcare and materials sectors have been the only positive performers since August. Large-cap and value factors have consistently outperformed YTD.
JOINN Laboratories (6127 HK) had an engulfing breakout earlier in the month. The H1 2026 backlog surged 61% to CNY 3.7bn, with newly signed orders nearly doubling.

8. Indonesia: Rupiah Defence Sets the Rate

Bank Indonesia held its policy rate at 5.75%, as expected, prioritising rupiah stability while macroprudential and fiscal measures support growth.
Near-Term cuts are unlikely as Fed tightening, a strong dollar, weak portfolio inflows and higher oil prices constrain BI’s policy flexibility.
A prolonged hold is most likely; renewed rupiah or inflation pressure could trigger a hike, while cuts require sustained external stability.

9. Resilience Survives Renewed Shock

Flash PMI balances broadly increased in September, despite the intensifying energy supply shock. It has so far been shrugged off, just like the tariffs last year.
Services balances had fallen in Q1 before the conflict began but have broadly recovered all the lost ground even without the conflict ending.
National services balances are broadly above their medians of the past year and decade, so demand is not depressed and can’t offset excess inflation in policy trade-offs.

10. BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Market Update (September 2026)

The Hong Kong market continues to consolidate, holding above its long-term support levels but without the momentum to break out to new highs.
Healthcare is the only sector in positive territory in September. The materials sector benefited from gains in the gold sector.
ZTE (763 HK) is maintained a BUY at CMB International with a +48% 12-month upside target price. The company is transitioning to international and AI sectors for growth.

Sep 06

Weekly Top Ten Macro and Cross Asset Strategy – Sep 6, 2026

By Marlon Marcos | Macro and Cross Asset Strategy

This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Macro and Cross Asset Strategy on Smartkarma.

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1. HEM: Sep-26 Views & Challenges

The energy supply shock is squeezing prices and not destroying much demand. UK excesses are backloaded and underappreciated.
A warm winter could avoid pressures intensifying. Yet monetary conditions and slack look more balanced than dovishly assumed.
We see hikes from the BoE in Nov-26 and ECB in Sep-26. Market pricing has probably gone too far given dovish policymaker bias.

2. Recent Bloodbath Margin Calls in the Korean Stock Market – 0.36 Million Margin Accounts Liquidated

In this insight, I provide a detailed analysis of the recent major bloodbath margin calls and liquidations in the Korean stock market, especially in the summer of 2026.
There are about 1.5 million active margin accounts in Korea, of which more than 1.2 million margin accounts received margin call triggers and 0.36 million have been liquidated this summer.
It may take more time for retail Korean investors to regain confidence and re-enter the domestic market more actively due to recent trauma from their margin calls and liquidations.

3. China Equities: Relative Upside in Offshore Vs. Onshore Stocks

Offshore relative value: We tested 12-month relative returns across onshore vs. offshore, and both vs. EM. Offshore China is the oversold leg, driven by its own weakness rather than onshore strength.
AI rotation: The performance gap reflects capital favoring the onshore industrial upgrades vs. offshore consumption. Re-rating requires offshore earnings pickup regardless of how cheap the multiple looks.
Stock selection:MSCI China Index (MXCN INDEX) is dominated by Tencent (700 HK) and Alibaba (9988 HK) while dispersion across the index is wide. We built an investable bucket.

4. HONG KONG ALPHA PORTFOLIO: (August 2026)

HK Alpha portfolio gained 3.45% in August, outperforming its benchmark by 2.67%. Since inception, the portfolio has outperformed HK indexes by 60% to 84%. HK ALPHA is up 14.35% YTD.
The Sharpe ratio stands at 1.21, compared with a benchmark of 0.68 since inception. This higher Sharpe ratio is driven by excess alpha, which represents more than 50% of returns.
The portfolio gained in the healthcare, industrial, and technology sectors in August, while utilities and telecom exposure dragged on performance.

5. EA: Rates Rising Into September

EA inflation’s 31bp rise in August to 3.3% more than completed the reversal of June’s premature optimism. Benign food and goods price rises aren’t seen in services and core.
Resurgent inflationary pressures reinforce the ECB’s July signal that it would hike again in September. Core inflation is too high, and upside risks remain.
Demonstrated vigilance should help preserve the anchor of expectations at 2%, avoiding the BoE’s ongoing failure. Two hikes should be sufficient if a winter squeeze is avoided.

6. HEW: September Steps To Hike

Boisterous US labour market data move the Fed a step closer to a September hike, with next week’s CPI release now pivotal, while rising EA inflation preserves the ECB’s path.
The RBNZ hiked and signalled further normalising steps, while central banks in Canada and Malaysia held rates, albeit with the odds of tightening rising in the former.
Beyond next week’s ECB rate hike and Friday’s US inflation highlight, we await GDP data from the UK and the EA, along with the latter’s final Q2 employment data.

7. Canada Holds As Inflation Risks Rise

The BoC held at 2.25% as expected, but highlighted higher inflation risks from energy and tariffs, raising the odds of future tightening.
Broadening recovery and excess supply justify a wait‑and‑see stance, while trade uncertainty could cap growth and extend the hold.
Rate cuts look unlikely while headline CPI stays near 3%; multiple hikes remain possible if price pressures spread beyond energy.

8. Japanese Banks: Rotating Beneath the Surface

Return dispersion among banks is wide enough to select on. Individual outcomes range from Fukui Bank (8362 JP) at +264% to Rakuten Bank (5838 JP) at -23%.
Leadership is rotating. Money is moving from small cheap regionals back toward larger names.
We constructed a barbel portfolio. Leg A holds six trend-confirmed momentum leaders. Leg B holds six accelerating laggards.

9. Korea Small Cap Gem Insights – Relative Outperformance Vs KOSDAQ

In this insight, I provide the data analysis regarding the relative performance of my Korea Small Cap Gem series insights (for 27 KOSDAQ listed companies) versus KOSDAQ last two years.
These 27 companies’ share prices are up on average 3.9%, 11.5%, and 13.8% over one week, one month, and three months, respectively from one day prior to their insight publications.
I compared these performances versus KOSDAQ which was up on average 0.1%, 1.2%, and 3.4%, respectively from one day prior to these insight publications (same time periods).

10. RBNZ Hikes Towards Conditional Endgame

The RBNZ’s widely expected 25bp OCR hike to 2.75% extends gradual normalisation towards a ~3% neutral rate, with a conditional tightening bias beyond.
External economists are split on the terminal rate: some see 3–3.25%, others up to 4%, highlighting a genuinely data‑dependent path for future hikes.
Fragile domestic demand and export‑led resilience mean the RBNZ will weigh inflation persistence against growth risks before moving rates much above neutral.

Aug 02

Weekly Top Ten Macro and Cross Asset Strategy – Aug 2, 2026

By Marlon Marcos | Macro and Cross Asset Strategy

This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Macro and Cross Asset Strategy on Smartkarma.

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1. Fed Holds as Hike Debate Grows

The Fed held rates at 3.5–3.75% in a 9-3 vote as hawkish dissents crystallised. Debate centres on whether hikes are needed to restore 2% inflation and credibility.
Rising real yields and AI capex make financial conditions and productivity payoffs pivotal for any decision to raise rates.
The five‑year-long inflation overshoot, and counting, keeps hike risk live; cuts are unlikely until disinflation and expectations are firmly anchored.

2. Shaming by Naming Korean Companies with Low PBRs

On 28 July, the Financial Services Commission and the Korea Exchange announced the detailed criteria for this system of publicly identifying companies with low PBRs.
This is a “shaming by naming” those companies with low PBRs to address situations where companies with low PBRs neglect efforts to boost shareholder value by publicly identifying them.
I provide a list of 150 stocks in KOSPI that could be included in this list.

3. Credit Boom Before Burnham’s Burn

A resurgence in the UK’s monetary data for June built on strength from policy overly accommodating the energy shock. Wage inflation has dominated higher lending rates.
Recent lending growth is trending up by 6-8% on an annualised basis, devaluing the currency’s purchasing power to a point unlikely to be consistent with the CPI target.
Fear of higher tax rates should slow loan demand, while the potential abolition of stamp duty should encourage transaction delays. We still see one BoE rate hike in September.

4. The Heat Is On: News Flow and Sentiment in CHINA / HONG KONG (July 2026)

The Hong Kong market has seen a rebound in July, while North Asian markets declined sharply as the global AI/semiconductor sectors de-rated.
The financials sector has outperformed over the last 8 weeks, while the tech sector has shown increased strength and momentum.
MGM China (2282 HK) share price rebounded over the last week before its August Q226 earnings announcement. The company has increased its share of the mass-market gaming in Macau.

5. BoE: Dual Drift As Doves Bed In

The MPC’s 6-3 vote matched our relatively hawkish view, but the numerical drift toward hiking was more than matched by a dovish drift among the broader committee.
Most members are patiently awaiting proof of second-round effects before considering a move, making them reactive, not proactive, and compounding inflation risks.
Our conviction in a persistently excessive UK inflation outlook is increased, but the majority’s reaction function delays a still-likely rate hike to at least November.

6. Technically Speaking Breakouts & Breakdowns – HONG KONG (July 2026)

By Manu Bhaskaran, Centennial Asia Advisors

The Hong Kong market bounced off its long-term support levels in June and has outperformed the region in July, benefiting from rotational and southbound buying.
In a positive sign, the financials sector has rallied this month and is the second-best-performing sector YTD at +11%. Value and dividend factors continue to perform well.
Youran Dairy (9858 HK) had a Descending Trendline Breakout after the company announced that Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group (A) (600887 CH) acquired a significant stake in the company.

7. Indonesia Economics: Pressures Are Accumulating After Short-Term Reprieve

Markets have stabilised since mid-June as Hormuz de-escalation and domestic policy repair buy Indonesia additional time, even as the underlying credibility deficit remains unresolved.
With external conditions now re-entering a more dangerous phase, pressure is growing both on Indonesia’s trade balance and domestic demand. Policy buffers are also thinner.
The institutional guardrails against policy mistakes have also been degraded. Intensifying intra-elite infighting also severely compromises the already-febrile business climate.

8. Sentiment Matters: The Biggest Consensus Longs and Shorts

By Lars Kreckel, Sentiment Matters

Technology, US equities and Brazil are now consensus longs—but where has optimism become most vulnerable?
CAD, sovereign bonds and Consumer Discretionary are deeply unpopular. Which offers the clearest contrarian opportunity?
Sentiment extremes are not automatic signals. Momentum and narrative vulnerabilities help separate crowded trades from genuine opportunities.

9. Asian Equities: Relentless Foreign Selling in Asia; Most of the Leading Markets Are Now Oversold

By Manishi Raychaudhuri, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

In July foreigners sold US$34.8bn in Asia, the third worst in recent times, after March (US$69.9bn selling) and June (US$55.8bn). Taiwan (US$25.2bn) was the most sold, followed by Korea (US$11.3bn).
India was bought (US$1.62bn), reversing last four month’s trend. Indonesia and Thailand’s July data is awaited. Till June, Thailand (+889m) is the only market bought this year. Indonesia sold (US$4.27bn).
Our proprietary indicator of 6-monthly cumulative trade as proportion of market cap indicates Korea, India, Indonesia are oversold. Taiwan nearly there. FIIs beginning to buy India, correcting the oversold stance.

10. CX Daily: Billionaire Founder of Chinese Broker Futu Faces His Toughest Test

By Caixin Global, Caixin Global

In Profile: Billionaire Founder of Chinese Broker Futu Faces His Toughest Test From an early engineer at Tencent Holdings Ltd. to the billionaire founder of Futu Holdings Ltd., Li Hua built one of China’s most prominent online brokerages.
Now, the cross-border business model that powered Futu’s rise has exposed the 49-year-old entrepreneur to the most serious regulatory and legal challenge of his career.
A third defendant seeking to unfreeze assets in a more than $100 million U.S. insider trading lawsuit shares a name with an investor whose Hong Kong corporate takeover collapsed days after a U.S. court order.

Jul 12

Weekly Top Ten Macro and Cross Asset Strategy – Jul 12, 2026

By Marlon Marcos | Macro and Cross Asset Strategy

This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Macro and Cross Asset Strategy on Smartkarma.

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1. HEM: Jul-26 Views & Challenges

Energy supply remains constrained, but the market has moved on thematically. High oil product prices quietly sustain the shock.
ECB action helps EA inflation back to 2% in 2027, while UK excesses persist and the US outlook sits in between.
We see a BoE hike and the ECB/Fed on hold. Market pricing for the BoE/Fed spread is inconsistent with fundamentals and can reverse.

2. BoE Pricing Is Too Fed Up

Market pricing embraced our long-held view that the Fed could hike this year, but in fading BoE moves, has ended up with too much tightening priced relative to the BoE.
The UK’s structurally rising unemployment rate has passed, and is no longer much worse than a year ago. The monetary setting is not obviously tight or tighter in the UK.
Inflation is a more persistently excessive problem in the UK, compounded by another energy shock. Incoming fiscal loosening also justifies a tighter BoE than Fed path.

3. HEW: Re-Energised Supply Shock

Renewed attacks in the Gulf and Trump’s assertion that the ceasefire is dead reversed the MOU-related decline in gas and electricity prices, although oil remains cheap.
Rate expectations have increased in response to the intensified energy supply shock, especially in Europe, but we still see the BoE as underpriced relative to the Fed.
Next week’s US inflation data should show good news from oil price falls, while the final EA release can confirm it. Policy decisions will come in Canada and Korea.

4. LEVERAGED ETFs: “Pigs Get Fed, Hogs Get Slaughtered”

By Manishi Raychaudhuri, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

The global leveraged ETF market has grown to an historically high level in both AUM and trading volume, increasing risks and volatility for global equity markets.
Long and Inverse ETF product analysis shows that investors are actually holding leveraged long ETF positions in single stocks and markets, no longer using the products for trading and positioning.
The problem for markets is not only the parabolic rise in leveraged ETFs feeding through to stocks and markets via rebalancing, but also the overall net positioning being heavily long.

5. Asian Equities: Second Highest Ever Foreign Selling in June; Nascent Recovery in India and ASEAN

In June, foreign institutions sold US$54.7bn of Asian equities, second only to the US$69.9bn selling in March. FIIs sold US$30.7bn in Korea, US$19bn in Taiwan and US$5.2bn in India.
In H12026, foreigners have sold US$157bn Asian equities – the most concentrated bout of selling ever. They sold US$96bn in Korea alone, US$29.8bn in Taiwan and US$29.3bn in India.
We identified India and Korea as oversold markets. India is now being bought back by the FIIs – US$312m in July till date, but Korea continues to be sold heavily.

6. RBNZ Starts Cautious Tightening

By Manu Bhaskaran, Centennial Asia Advisors

The RBNZ’s 25bp OCR hike to 2.50% begins a cautious tightening phase, aimed at returning inflation sustainably to the 2% target midpoint.
The decision aligned with the headline consensus but disappointed the dovish minority, reinforcing a bias towards higher rates as neutral is seen near 3%.
Future OCR moves will be data‑dependent, driven by medium‑term inflation pressures, domestic price‑setting behaviour, spare capacity and the exchange rate path.

7. Vietnam Economics: Another Strong but Uneven Quarter for GDP Growth

Capital formation, including precautionary stockbuilding, helped Vietnam maintain a strong rate of GDP growth in Q2 2026.
Softer growth in services points to domestic demand headwinds as higher energy prices erode real purchasing power.
The year-to-date performance, however, leaves Hanoi’s full-year growth target out of reach. The quality of growth will also be more uneven than the headlines imply.

8. US Economic and Funding Conditions Remain Resilient, but Limited Scope for Improvement

By Said Desaque, DeSaque Macro Research

Despite the energy shock due to hostilities in the Middle East, US economic activity has remained resilient, but business and consumer sentiment remain below pre-conflict levels.
US funding conditions remain favourable during 2026 despite the geopolitical backdrop, but scope for further improvement is limited. The Fed’s latest stress tests suggests banks are in decent financial shape.
Fiscal policy plays an important role in determining funding conditions via banks and the repo market. The fiscal outlook is complicated by uncertainty about tax revenues associated with expiring tariffs.

9. CX Daily: How a South China Port Is Redrawing the Regional Logistics Map

By Caixin Global, Caixin Global

In Depth: How a South China Port Is Redrawing the Regional Logistics Map
In Depth: China’s Inbound Tourism Rebounds, but Supply Gaps Cloud Outlook
Analysis: Gold Caught in a Tug-of-War Between Asian Bulls and a Hawkish Fed

10. CX Daily: The AI Token Takeover in China

By Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Cover Story: The AI Token Takeover in China
China Overhauls Stock Trading Rules to Boost Efficiency, Curb Speculation
Guotai Haitong Becomes First Chinese Brokerage to Trade Offshore Yuan in Shanghai FTZ

Jun 28

Weekly Top Ten Macro and Cross Asset Strategy – Jun 28, 2026

By Marlon Marcos | Macro and Cross Asset Strategy

This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Macro and Cross Asset Strategy on Smartkarma.

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1. UK Politics: Burnham Down The House

Andy Burnham seems set to become UK Prime Minister next month after Keir Starmer resigned and Wes Streeting decided to back Burnham instead of launching a campaign.
Labour’s hopes are higher, but the self-styled King of the North faces the same lack of support for specific changes. A core vote strategy would extend the slide to socialism.
The fiscal rules now have rolling horizons, allowing more deficit-fuelled spending and even nationalisation. Labour’s death throes can hit harder with Burnham in charge.

2. NPS: Net Seller of Korean Stocks in the Past Month (What Is It Buying and Selling?)

NPS and other local pension funds net sold approximately 2.5 trillion won in KOSPI included stocks in the past month (as of 23 June).
Top stocks net sold by the NPS and local pension funds in the past one month include Samsung Electro Mechanics, SK Square, and Mirae Asset Securities.
Top stocks net purchased by the NPS and local pension funds in the past one month include Naver, SK Hynix, and Hyundai Mobis.

3. BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Market Update (6/22/26)

The Hong Kong market continued its downtrend over the last month. The technology, materials, consumer, and healthcare sectors have declined in 2026, with the industrials sector showing the best performance.
Dividend and value factors have outperformed in 2026, while growth and momentum have declined.
Contemporary Amperex Technology (3750 HK) was initiated as OVERWEIGHT by Barclays, with a target price implying 35% upside.

4. Sentiment On Yo-Yo Diet

Services sentiment rebounded in 5/8 of the flash PMIs, converging the cumulative fall since February with the hit from the 2025 tariff shock, but UK depression deepened.
Revisions will probably raise these values again, but political turmoil will keep weighing on the UK, even if sentiment loses the same ground each month, like a yo-yo diet.
Global unemployment data has been stable so far, signalling demand destruction is insufficient to balance the excess inflation, supporting recent rate hike decisions.

5. CHINA/US: Trump Wages Another Losing War, This Time in Tech!

The Trump Administration is determined to continue and wage a “tech war” against China. The battlefield has expanded beyond the chips to power AI and the equipment to produce them.
The Pentagon’s Section 1260H “Chinese Military Company” (CMC) list expanded significantly in early 2026, now encompassing some of China’s most prominent technology and platform companies.
In response to US actions, China added 10 US defense contractors to its export control list, targeting drone, robotics, aerospace, and strategic minerals sectors to prohibit exports of rare earths.

6. Technically Speaking Breakouts & Breakdowns – HONG KONG (June 2026)

By Dr. Jim Walker, Aletheia Capital

The Hong Kong market continues to underperform as investors focus on semiconductor investments in North Asian markets. The market continues to trade at a significant valuation discount to other markets.
Dividend yield and value factors have outperformed YTD, while growth stocks have declined the most. The industrials sector is the best-performing YTD, while tech, healthcare, and consumer sectors decline.
Dongyue (189 HK) share price relative to the MSCI All Asia index has broken new highs. The surge in shares is attributed to President Trump’s easing of hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) regulations.

7. Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim’s Summary of Key Global Macro Developments – 19 June 2026

The Federal Reserve kept interest rates at 3.75%, but it was a surprise that new Fed chairman, Kevin Warsh, struck a relatively hawkish tone in the post-meeting press conference, suggesting that inflation was still a problem. In the mean time, the Taiwanese central bank again left interest rates at 2% despite the fact that money supply growth is way above the target range.
Bank of Japan, Bank Indonesia, and the Philippines Central Bank all raised interest rates by 25pbs this week. Bank of Japan is seriously behind the curve while Bank Indonesia and Philippines central bank are in trouble with both inflation and exchange rate pressures.
A few Chinese data points are showing signs of softening. Retail sales fell 0.6% YoY in May, a pause after a strong start of this year. Property investment continued to contract, by 16% YoY in May which is pretty significant number in a sector that really should be stabilizing by now, but continues to weaken.

8. Thailand: Holding Through The Shock

The BOT held the policy rate at 1.00% as expected, while signalling a high bar for near‑term hikes despite a temporary inflation overshoot.
Sub‑trend, uneven growth and weak SME credit make the MPC favour an accommodative stance while watching inflation expectations closely.
Future rate moves hinge on cost‑push shocks, baht‑driven imported inflation and whether disinflation turns the real policy rate too restrictive.

9. HEW: Leveraged Vibes

Vibes are driving markets, with retail monkeys seemingly set to destroy Korean equities next, fuelled by leverage. Meanwhile, Iranian attacks are ignored as old news.
Physical oil products remain expensive, even as financial investors price the problem out. Sentiment is recovering too, although the UK suffers from its socialist slide.
Next week’s unemployment data in the US and EA, plus flash HICP, are the main events. Lending data from the ECB and BoE, and Friday’s DMP, are our second-tier highlights.

10. Banxico Pauses, Caution Prevails

Banxico paused at 6.50%, matching consensus, signalling a shift to a higher‑for‑longer stance as core inflation eases only gradually.
With upside inflation risks and expectations still above target, further cuts hinge on sustained core disinflation and a stable peso.
Future rate moves will track services inflation, global conditions and Fed policy, keeping Mexico’s real rates restrictive for now.

May 31

Weekly Top Ten Macro and Cross Asset Strategy – May 31, 2026

By Marlon Marcos | Macro and Cross Asset Strategy

This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Macro and Cross Asset Strategy on Smartkarma.

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1. UK Politics: The Wrong Trousers

Policy is shifting activity from the private to the public sector, with little austerity, while lower immigration is all about workers avoiding the UK, while shirkers still come.
Reversing Brexit is not possible, and the concessions needed won’t realistically find support. A little socialism was bad; more socialism under Burnham would be worse.
Starmer is the least bad option for the economy as Labour faces its own Thucydides Trap. A weak leader can’t do as much damage during their death throes.

2. RBNZ Hold With Hawkish Tilt

The RBNZ held its cash rate at 2.25% on a knife‑edge vote, decided by the new Governor, but signals hikes will come sooner and go further than its February track.
The energy‑driven inflation shock shifts risks: upside for inflation, downside for growth, reinforcing a hawkish, data‑dependent reaction function.
Multiple future rate hikes hinge on 2‑year inflation expectations, wage dynamics, firms’ pricing power and evidence of slack constraining pass‑through.

3. Technically Speaking Breakouts & Breakdowns – HONG KONG (May 2026)

By Manishi Raychaudhuri, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

The Hong Kong market has been range-trading over the last month, with pockets of strength in the AI-related sectors. Korea and Taiwan markets are the star performers in Asia YTD.
Value and dividend yield factors have been the best-performing in the market, with the growth factor showing negative returns. Energy, industrials, and conglomerates are the best-performing sectors YTD.
Huaneng Power International (902 HK) broke out to new highs. The company has rapidly expanded its renewable energy segment and has benefited from AI/datacenter demand.

4. Asian Equities: Above-Average Valuations Tell Us Asia Is Fully Valued; Few RV Trades Look Appealing

Forward PE and forward P/BV multiples for Asia ex Japan, especially the latter, are significantly above their long-term averages. Though earnings estimates continue to rise, some caution is warranted.
Historically, Asia and each of the constituent markets have been driven predominantly by earnings. Currently, upgrades to forward EPS are robust, but the AxJ index has overshot the underlying EPS.
EPS estimates for India and China are rolling over. On growth-adjusted PE and ROE-adjusted P/BV, India, Taiwan, Onshore China appear overvalued. Korea, HK, Indonesia, Philippines appear undervalued on both parameters.

5. BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Market Update (5/27/26)

The Hong Kong market continues to trade sideways, with pockets of AI-themed stocks surging. IPO activity remains robust in the technology sector.
Growth and momentum factors have underperformed so far in 2026, as stagnation in mainland domestic consumption is reflected in the underperformance of the consumer discretionary and staples sectors.
Baidu (9888 HK) received a BUY rating from Deutsche Bank with a target price of $186. The company’s cloud infrastructure revenue rose 79% in 1Q26.

6. CHARTING COURSE: From TACOs to NACHOs, China’s Nasdaq Smackdown (May 23)

US/Iran negotiations are centered on opening the Strait of Hormuz (SOH), a problem that did not exist before the US launched its war against Iran.
Iran is controlling the negotiations and will extract concessions from the US to partially open the SOH in the near term as the ceasefire is extended for further negotiations.
China is cracking down on illegal overseas stock trading accounts held by mainland investors to stem hot money outflows, increase tax compliance, and redirect investments toward its domestic markets.

7. US-Iran De-Escalation: Looking Beyond Risk Premiums

By Duncan Chan

Potential de-escalation may compress risk premiums, but Treasury yields around 4.5–5.0% still compete with equities, suggesting broader participation may remain selective near term.
Aluminium increasingly stands out as inventories declined approximately 7–8% and physical conditions tightened, while copper remains broadly consistent with surplus expectations.
Evidence remains more supportive for energy security and infrastructure themes, including uranium, AI infrastructure and offshore rigs, while coal and lithium still require clearer signs of tightening.

8. Korea Edges Towards Rate Hikes

BOK holds its base rate at 2.50% as expected, but a hawkish tone and dissenting votes to hike raise the odds of tightening soon.
Upgraded growth and inflation forecasts, plus household debt and housing risks, have shifted the bias from easing to data‑driven rate hikes.
Future moves hinge on inflation, semiconductor‑led growth and financial stability; market pricing should lean towards gradual hikes.

9. HEW: Neither Over Nor Out

By Steven Holden, Copley Fund Research

Hopes have risen over a US-Iran MOU to extend the ceasefire and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Even if vessels leave the region, the energy shock builds until more return.
We remain concerned that carriers will be unwilling to risk encumbering more assets in the Gulf. Also, how the UK Labour leadership hopefuls are blind to socialist blunders.
June begins with EA inflation data set to rise again ahead of an ECB hike. US payrolls and the BoE’s decision maker panel survey are our other highlights next week.

10. Indian Fund Positioning — the Micro Picture

HDFC Bank is held by 67.7% of EM funds — yet 9.6% of funds closed ICICI Bank and 8.5% closed Tata Consultancy Services over the last twelve months
Bharti Airtel and Mahindra & Mahindra sit at all-time ownership highs, bucking the country-level trend and pointing to selective conviction rather than wholesale retreat
A new cohort of rising stars — Bharat Electronics, Ashok Leyland, APL Apollo Tubes — is quietly building an institutional investor base well below the mainstream radar

May 17

Weekly Top Ten Macro and Cross Asset Strategy – May 17, 2026

By Marlon Marcos | Macro and Cross Asset Strategy

This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Macro and Cross Asset Strategy on Smartkarma.

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1. ‘It’s the Liquidity, Stupid’ | Protect the Pile Episode 11

By Real Conversations, Real Conversations

SP 500 at all-time high, up 8% year to date despite Iran conflict
NASDAQ also at all-time high, up 12.5% year to date
Liquidity driving market, Fed balance sheet growing at 6-7% annually, leading to market growth

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

2. EM Fixed Income: Parsing peace talks and payrolls

By At Any Rate, At Any Rate

US and Iran reportedly in talks to end war with a short memorandum
Market reaction to announcements and risk-reward analysis in various asset classes
Focus on EMFX trading stronger on hopes of resolution, with underlying fundamentals supporting EM growth and positioning clearing out

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3. US: Awkwardly Overinflated Again

US inflation surged beyond expectations in April to exceed levels that the consensus forecast at the height of its tariff concerns last year, as these costs cannot be avoided.
Core services inflation trended up to an annualised 4.7%, matching the highs of 2025, to indicate excessive underlying inflationary pressures and possible second-round effects.
Inflation is stuck above the target, presenting a greater case to hike than cut. If this builds, we still don’t believe Trump’s new Chair will ignore the hawkish fundamentals.

4. Rates: Temporal Decay Inverted

Markets price BoE hikes while the consensus forecasts cuts. Some of this is because risks skew to higher inflation and rates, raising the mean (market) over modal forecasts.
Each day of supply disruption deepens the shock, crystallising some risk, and pulling the modal forecasts towards market pricing in an inversion of the usual temporal decay.
Energy prices, not macro, currently drive rate pricing, and we see supply normalisation priced too quickly. We are more hawkish than the consensus and see upside risks.

5. “National Dividend” For Excess Profits from Korean Semiconductor Companies? Karl Marx Would Be Proud

KOSPI declined by 2.3% on Monday (11 May), mainly due to concerns about imposing “national dividend” for excess profits from AI/semiconductor related companies in Korea (Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix).
In the near term (1-2 years), it is highly UNLIKELY for the Korean government to suddenly provide national dividends for excess profits from major AI/semiconductor companies in Korea.
However, when the AGI becomes a reality, the idea of providing “national dividend” or by another name Universal Basic Income (UBI) could become a reality in 5-10 years.

6. HONG KONG ALPHA PORTFOLIO: (April 2026)

The Hong Kong Alpha portfolio posted a -0.5% return for April. Since its inception, the HK Alpha portfolio has outperformed the HK indexes by 38.69% to 60.42%.
Overall alpha generation remains at 64% of overall returns. The Sharpe ratio for the portfolio is 1.15, compared with 0.89 for the benchmark.
As the US retreats from its war in Iran, we have repositioned the portfolio by adding exposure to the AI-related tech sector, including platform, agentic, and hardware.

7. CHARTING COURSE: China Summit Between the Lines and Trumpflation! (May 15)

President Xi began the China summit with a warning on Taiwan. The statement reveals the extent to which US soft power has declined.
Agreements from the summit were mostly perfunctory and did not result in any meaningful changes in China’s support for Iran and opposition to the war.
Trumpflation is here, as PPI surges in April and consumers pay the highest gasoline prices in 4 years. Treasury yields are on the move with the 2-year above 4%.

8. UK: GDP Reaches Seasonal Peak Again

UK GDP ended Q1 on a high, with 0.3% m-o-m growth instead of a contraction delivering 0.6% q-o-q. We maintain our call for April-May weakness to slow Q2 to 0.1%.
The monthly profile is following the seasonal path of the past four years, but the 5yr sample in ONS analysis means they won’t find it until 2027, prolonging the problem.
Underlying activity has filled in some of the Q1 hole, and the smaller rebound into Q2 doesn’t fundamentally matter beyond providing doves with an excuse to hike less.

9. EA Crawls In Tight Space

Confirmation of a Q1 slowing in the Euro area exaggerates the 5bps change in a region that has long crawled forward slowly. Ireland’s volatility drove the latest change.
The EA’s performance looks particularly pathetic relative to its peers, but the UK’s Q1 surge is residual seasonality, and the US strength is longstanding.
Unproductive defence spending is not the hoped-for panacea, so the EA doesn’t need to grow fast to build excess demand with inflation that is leading the ECB to hike.

10. Lower Korean Stock Market on 15 May = NPS’s Plan on 28 May + Profit Taking on AI/Tech Stocks?

By Alastair Newton, Heteronomics

On 15 May, the NPS (the big whale) announced that it plans to finalize the mid-term asset allocation plan on 28 May.
All in all, the NPS is likely to raise the 5% limit for strategic and tactical asset allocation.
The exact amount that it raises by remains uncertain. If NPS does not raise this limit enough, that could result in a major BEARISH pressure on the Korean stock market.

Aug 31

Weekly Top Ten Macro and Cross Asset Strategy – Aug 31, 2025

By Marlon Marcos | Macro and Cross Asset Strategy

This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Macro and Cross Asset Strategy on Smartkarma.

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1. Russia/Ukraine: What Now?

A week after the event, it is clear that the Trump/Putin summit presented the latter with a big win at little, if any, cost.
Donald Trump is unlikely to come up with anything that will bring Mr Putin to the negotiating table in good faith once his latest two-week ‘deadline’ expires.
Furthermore, Mr Trump remains philosophically inclined to favour Russia, a leaning that probably poses a greater risk to Kyiv than Mr Putin himself does.

2. HEW: Policy Under Pressure

By William Mann, HarmoniQ Insights

President Trump’s attempt to fire Governor Cook, potentially gaining a supportive majority on the Fed, raises the risk that US policy overstimulates the economy.
Policy peers should not be pressured to mirror mistakes. The ECB faces data that keep accumulating hawkish pressures, but others are more susceptible, like the BOK.
Non-farm payroll data provide the last hope of blocking a Fed rate cut in September. Meanwhile, a rise in EA inflation to 2.1% should help rule out another ECB rate cut.

3. DeFi, On-Chain Truth, and the Petrodollar 2.0

Founder of the DeFi Report and Web3 Strategist, NATO, shares his journey, advice for innovators, and trends shaping asset tokenization, venture capital, and AI convergence.
Inflation report and Fed’s monetary policy decision discussed, with core inflation increasing 3.1% year over year and market pricing in a 92% chance of a rate cut in September.
Summary of market performance, with crude falling, value rally in US equities, and Ray Dalio’s recommendation to invest in non US equities in local currency.

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4. A Monetary View on US Inflation

By Kok Peng Chan

The current neglect on the role played by money supply and the monetary base is, in our view a serious analytical gap
In a nutshell, we think private money growth – defined as M2 minus monetary base- is right now in a Goldilocks phase. This augurs well for US inflation
With the Fed inclined to ease rather than tighten, and with inflation shocks likely to prove one-off, risk assets remain supported

5. ECB Easing Transmits Need To Hold Rates

By Said Desaque, DeSaque Macro Research

ECB rate cuts are stimulating a trend rise in lending growth to levels consistent with no change in policy, as the monetary transmission mechanism delivers the easing.
Activity surveys are less bullish, but reflect stagnant supply-side potential that can’t be fixed by stimulating demand, which would merely stoke the inflation problem.
Potentially inappropriate Fed easing does not raise peer pressure like fundamental US weakness would. Domestic news dominates and supports our ECB call for no change.

6. Late 1990s Bubble Comparison to Current Cycle Requires Nuanced Analysis

Despite the growing chorus of comparisons, the backdrop to the late 1990s equity bubble was fundamentally different from the current environment, notably in the manner of Fed policy conduct.
During the late 1990s, Fed policy conduct was characterised by pivots, particularly after the Asian financial crisis and bailout of Long Term Capital Management, helping to prolong the equity bubble.
Forward P/E multiples on US equities were more elevated in the late 1990s compared with current levels. Valuations have been more volatile in the current cycle, courtesy of Fed policy.

7. Proposed GST Reforms: Double Diwali Bonanza or Double Whammy?

By Nitin Mangal, Trudence Capital Advisors

GST reforms are set to change with centre proposing a two-rate structure of 5 and 18 per cent
The announcement is aimed at boosting consumption in the mid-long run, curtailing effects of current higher tariffs.
However, timing is of utmost importance. Any delay or adverse stance on the rollout could have significant ramifications for the overall economy and the festive season.

8. To Tariff or Not to Tariff, That Is Not the Question

By Cam Hui, Pennock Idea Hub

How should investors judge Trumponomics? The question isn’t whether tariffs or anti-immigration policies should be imposed, but to judge their long run effects on growth, inflation and productivity.
While it’s too early to render a full judgment of Trumponomics and his policies, it may be a case of short-term pain for long-term gain.
The preliminary report card is mostly a case of pain and not gain.

9. Asian Equities: Eleven Robust Earnings Gainers Post Reporting Season

By Manishi Raychaudhuri, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Near the end of the earnings reporting season, our earnings estimate tracker identified 11 robust earnings estimate gainers – with consensus EPS estimates up across 3-month and 6-month time horizons.
Onshore China communications and financials, HK technology, Korean and Singapore financials are the prominent “winner” sectors. Five other ASEAN sectors also figure on the list.
Earlier, in June, we detected 16 “consistent winner” market-sectors. The earnings environment has deteriorated slightly. Of the prominent stocks, Tencent, Hana Financials and DBS Group figure in our Model Portfolio.

10. China Economics: Policy Confusion Risks Worsening Demand Slump

By Manu Bhaskaran, Centennial Asia Advisors

Transitory factors that drove China’s stronger-than-expected growth in the first half of 2025 are starting to fade, with hits to investment and consumption demand imminent in 2H25.
But Beijing is in a bind on its policy response: it is rolling out demand-supporting measures but it is also keen to cut excess capacity and enforce public sector frugality.
The net impact is that economic growth to decelerate significantly in 2H25. More stimulus measures will be dribbled out but its impact will be stymied by conflicting aims and adverse

Aug 10

Weekly Top Ten Macro and Cross Asset Strategy – Aug 10, 2025

By Marlon Marcos | Macro and Cross Asset Strategy

This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Macro and Cross Asset Strategy on Smartkarma.

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1. The Week Ahead – Is Trump Winning?

By Nomura – The Week Ahead, Nomura – The Week Ahead

Recent tariff announcements reflect cautious optimism on the US Dollar and inflation risks
Tariff rates of 16-17% could lead to gradual pass through to prices, impacting inflation in the coming months
Q2 GDP growth rebounded, but domestic final demand slowed, suggesting a gradual economic slowdown in the US, while Canada faces economic challenges and BoC takes a dovish stance

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2. BoE Cut Proves Finely Balanced

By The Synopsis, Speedwell Research

Four MPC members refused to back the rate cut in August, and only one favoured a 50bp cut, but he was forced to vote for a 25bp cut to break the balanced 4:4 split.
The group favouring a slower pace of easing may have expanded from 5:4 to 6:3, raising the hurdle to another cut. Four don’t even support the prevailing level.
Inflation forecast revisions keep trending the profile higher. Rolling resilience in the broader data should keep the BoE on hold in November and beyond, like the ECB.

3. Briefing. Massive Jobs Restatement, Rates Go Nowhere, Apple M&A?, Earnings Updates

New newsletter format called “The Briefing” provides quick market synopsis and company information, also available in podcast form on speedwellmemos.com
Recent market events include S&P 500 reaching all-time high before job report and new tariffs cause market to drop, Fed considering rate cut in response to softening economy
President Trump criticizes Fed Chair Powell for not lowering rates, Powell cautious on rate cuts to avoid inflation, history of rate mistakes highlighted

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4. Jung Chung-Rae (New Head of Ruling DPK) – Likely To Push for CGT Changes, How About Other Taxes?

Jung Chung-Rae, a four term lawmaker, has been appointed the new head of the ruling Democratic Party of Korea (DPK) in the past week.
His appointment as the head of the DPK party signals that there could be some changes to the 2025 Tax Reform Plan announced by MOSF last week.
The highest probability event is that the lower threshold for major shareholders for stock capital gains tax may NOT be lowered from 5 billion won to 1 billion won.

5. EA: Resilient Retail Rebound

Consumers need to drive activity growth as tariffs and Euro strength harm export competitiveness. Reassuringly, retail sales returned to their trend after a trimmed fall.
Growth was broad across countries and categories, taking the annual pace 0.5pp above consensus expectations. Non-food retail is critical and the strongest of them all.
Surveys are gloomier, especially about the future, but rarely right. Resilient real wage and employment growth can sustain brisk retail trends, preserving economic expansion.

6. HEM: One-Touch Easing

Payrolls revisions challenge the rolling resilience seen in most other hard data releases, but seem over-weighted.
Underlying price and wage inflation mostly track >2%, especially in the UK, which doesn’t need more rate cuts.
Policymakers biased to ease will deliver it on a batch of bad outcomes, even if the evidence proves fleeting.

7. Separate Dividend Tax Plan in Korea: Devil Is In the Details