India

In today’s briefing:

NIFTY50 Index Rebalance Preview: Forecast Changes, Impact, Positioning
Anthem Biosciences IPO: Lists Today; Index Inclusion Timing
JSW Steel (NSE: JSWSTEEL) – Strong Q1 Beat, Confident FY26 Guidance, Premium Valuation

NIFTY50 Index Rebalance Preview: Forecast Changes, Impact, Positioning

By Brian Freitas

InterGlobe Aviation Ltd (INDIGO IN) and Max Healthcare Institute (MAXHEALT IN) should replace Indusind Bank (IIB IN) and Hero Motocorp (HMCL IN) in the NIFTY Index in September.
The review period for the September rebalance ends 31 July, the announcement of the changes will take place end August and implemented at the close of trading on 29 September.
While there has been a steady increase in cumulative excess volume for Max Healthcare Institute (MAXHEALT IN), there could be more room to run in the stock.

Anthem Biosciences IPO: Lists Today; Index Inclusion Timing

By Brian Freitas

Anthem Biosciences raised INR 34bn (US$394m) in its IPO valuing the company at INR 320bn (US$3.7bn). The stock lists today.
The grey market premium is INR 132/share, so the stock could list 23.2% higher than the IPO price. That will help in getting larger index flows.
Anthem Biosciences could be added to one global index in November while the stock price gain will determine whether the stock is added to the other global index in December.

JSW Steel (NSE: JSWSTEEL) – Strong Q1 Beat, Confident FY26 Guidance, Premium Valuation

Recent Results: Q1 EBITDA surged 38% YoY to ₹7,576 Cr, driven by volume ramp-up, improved product mix, and lower coking coal costs.
FY26 Guidance: Company maintains production at 30.5 mt and sales at 29.2 mt, reflecting confidence in its ramp-up and downstream expansion roadmap.
Valuation & Growth: Trading at ~18× FY27E P/E and ~7× EV/EBITDA—above global peers—justified by projected 20% EBITDA and 23% EPS growth into FY27.

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Jul 20

Daily Brief India: NSDL and more

In today’s briefing:

NSDL Vs CDSL: A Bottom-Up Comparison

NSDL Vs CDSL: A Bottom-Up Comparison

By Himanshu Dugar

NSDL has been gearing up for its IPO and is very likely to hit the markets shortly within the SEBI stipulated deadline of 31st July.
NSDL historically had the upper hand over CDSL as institutional clients led to strong outperformance. But the booming retail investment landscape since 2021 has turned the tables on the leader.
Given that the trend of retail participation inching is expected to continue, NSDL needs to rejuvenate its approach to plough back market share. Payments banking business cant offset the impact.

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Jul 19

Daily Brief India: Anthem Biosciences and more

In today’s briefing:

Anthem Biosciences IPO Trading – Robust Insti Coverage Drives Overall Demand

Anthem Biosciences IPO Trading – Robust Insti Coverage Drives Overall Demand

Anthem Biosciences (1234D IN) raised about US$397m in its India IPO.
Anthem Biosciences (ABS) is a contract research, development and manufacturing organisation (CRDMO) with fully integrated operations spanning drug discovery, development, and manufacturing.
We have looked at the company’s past performance in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about the peer comp and IPO valuations.

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Jul 18

Daily Brief India: Max Healthcare Institute, Safex Chemicals (India) Limited, Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone, ICICI Prudential AMC, Asian Paints and more

In today’s briefing:

Max Healthcare (MAXHEALT IN): Sell
Safex Chemicals India Ltd Pre-IPO Tearsheet
Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia
ICICI Prudential AMC IPO: Over 55% of AUM in High-Margin Equity, Powering B30 Growth
Asian Paints Vs. Grasim: The Anti-Trust Showdown

Max Healthcare (MAXHEALT IN): Sell

By Avien Pillay

We are bullish on the long-term growth of the hospital sector in India.
Like in the case of Apollo Hospitals, Max Healthcare will have tough competition from both listed and unlisted players.
A 65 FPE does not factor in the high cost of expansion and potential challenges.

Safex Chemicals India Ltd Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Rosita Fernandes

Safex Chemicals (India) Limited (1414700D IN) (SCIL) is looking to raise about US$100m in its upcoming India IPO. The bookrunners for the deal are Axis, JM Fin, SBI.
SCIL is a specialty chemicals company in agrochemicals, operating across branded formulation, specialty chemicals, and CDMO segments, serving both farmers and global agrochemical firms.
According to the Frost & Sullivan Report, SCIL was among the fastest-growing players in the Indian agrochemical industry in terms of revenue growth between FY2023-25.

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Leonard Law, CFA

In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Adani Ports
Front-end UST yields declined yesterday, on account of subdued PPI data. The curve steepened meaningfully, following reports that US President Donald Trump had discussed with Republican members of Congress the dismissal of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell (which Mr Trump subsequently denied).
The yield on the 2Y UST fell 5 bps to 3.89%, while the yield on the 10Y UST was down 3 bps at 4.46%. Equities recovered from an earlier sell-off, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both ending 0.3% higher at 6,264 and 20,730, respectively.

ICICI Prudential AMC IPO: Over 55% of AUM in High-Margin Equity, Powering B30 Growth

ICICI Prudential AMC (570643Z IN) is the largest AMC in India by active mutual fund QAAUM with 13.3% market share.
Company is growing at more than 30% CAGR in last 3 years and having focus on B30 Cities and emerging markets to drive growth.
Since company is cash rich with no borrowings, they are coming up with 100% OFS.

Asian Paints Vs. Grasim: The Anti-Trust Showdown

Grasim (Birla Opus) filed an antitrust complaint alleging Asian Paints used dealer-exclusivity, supply-chain pressure, and reputational tactics to throttle its rollout.
CCI’s prima-facie order opens a DG probe; outcome could reset the playbook on dealer contracts in all B2C staples.
DG has 90 days to file its report. Possible end-states: (i) dismissal, (ii) monetary penalty + conduct remedies (exclusivity clauses void), (iii) structural remedy (unlikely).

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Jul 17

Daily Brief India: State Bank Of India, Jubilant Pharmova, Tata Consultancy Svcs, HDFC Bank, Zee Entertainment Enterprises, Oswal Pumps, ICICI Prudential AMC, P N Gadgil Jewellers and more

In today’s briefing:

SBI US$3bn QIP – No Surprises – Not the World’s Best Kept Secret
The Beat Ideas: Jubilant Pharmova – Turning Capex Into Catalysts for Long-Term Value
TCS – Fighting on All Fronts: Gen AI, Competition & Macro Uncertainty. Underperformance Ahead
HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) Outlook: Any Rally From Here May End Quickly
Zee Entertainment: A Forensic Perspective
Oswal Pumps Ltd- IPO to the Rescue
ICICI Pru AMC Pre-IPO Tearsheet
The Beat Ideas: P N Gadgil Jewellers- Betting Big on High-Margin Lightweight Jewellery

SBI US$3bn QIP – No Surprises – Not the World’s Best Kept Secret

By Sumeet Singh

State Bank Of India (SBIN IN) plans to raise around US$3bn via a QIP. The deal is very well flagged and we wrote on it last week.
Although the stock has been running up a bit going into the deal and the previous deal didn’t do well.
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

The Beat Ideas: Jubilant Pharmova – Turning Capex Into Catalysts for Long-Term Value

Jubilant Pharmova is investing over USD 285 million to expand its PET radiopharmacy sites, CDMO Sterile Injectables, and CRDMO capacity (FTEs from 1,000 to 4,000 by FY27).
These segments, contributing over 80% of FY25 EBITDA, are positioned for faster growth and margin expansion, with Line 3 in Spokane expected to reach peak utilization in 3 years.
A pivot towards higher-margin businesses with targeted RoCE above 20% enhances confidence in achieving Vision 2030 goals of doubling revenue and reaching 23–25% EBITDA margins.

TCS – Fighting on All Fronts: Gen AI, Competition & Macro Uncertainty. Underperformance Ahead

By Sreemant Dudhoria,CFA

Broad-based Weakness:Tata Consultancy Svcs (TCS IN) ‘s revenue declined 3.1% YoY in CC; domestic business fell sharply due to BSNL, while international demand remained soft across key verticals.
GenAI Pivot Amid Margin Pressure: TCS is shifting from GenAI pilots to scaled deployments, investing heavily in AI skilling, while margins face pressure from underutilization and delayed deal ramps.
Outlook Cautious Despite TCV Growth: TCV rose 13.2% YoY to $9.4 Bn, but mega deals are missing; execution delays and macro concerns cloud near-term visibility.

HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) Outlook: Any Rally From Here May End Quickly

By Nico Rosti

HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) has been rallying strongly since early January 2025, a rally we predicted back then. After 2 weeks down, the stock this week is rising.
However, according to our model the current uptrend pattern does not lead to long-lasting rallies, but rather to new, short-term corrections.
The time horizon for this rally is 1-2 weeks, when this trend pattern is encountered, so we could expect the stock to rally briefly and then pull back again.

Zee Entertainment: A Forensic Perspective

Shareholders recently rejected Zee’s promoter-led capital infusion, limiting the founding family’s stake increase and influence.
The failed fundraise underscores persistent questions about financial transparency and management’s past conduct. This decision further impacts market perception and investor confidence.
This insight covers the whole story from the beginning of the allegations to the current status of the allegations and fundraising.

Oswal Pumps Ltd- IPO to the Rescue

By Nitin Mangal

Oswal Pumps (1019841D IN) came out with an IPO in June to raise fresh equity of INR 8.9 bn and offer for sale of 8.1 mn shares.
They are among the few fully integrated Turnkey Solar Pumping System providers in India, manufacturing solar pumps, modules, controllers, and offering complete installation services for agricultural applications.
Forensic takeaways include misstatement of cash flow, absence of details on the order book, possible margin and growth concerns and certain violations of regulations and regular delay in filing dues.

ICICI Pru AMC Pre-IPO Tearsheet

ICICI Prudential AMC (570643Z IN) (IPru AMC) is looking to raise about US$1bn in its upcoming India IPO. The deal will be run by a consortium of banks.
IPru AMC is an asset management company involved in managing mutual funds, providing portfolio management services, managing alternative investment funds, and providing advisory services to offshore clients.
The IPO is entirely an offer for sale by one of the promoters, Prudential Corporation Holdings Limited.

The Beat Ideas: P N Gadgil Jewellers- Betting Big on High-Margin Lightweight Jewellery

P N Gadgil Jewellers (1742652D IN) is a 190-year-old legacy brand evolving into a modern retail powerhouse with 55 stores, innovative formats, and nationwide expansion plans.
Key growth drivers include 20–25 planned new stores in FY26, a 41.6% YoY jump in studded jewellery share, and a complete exit from INR 700 crore bullion sales.
With 5-year PAT CAGR of 52% and a PEG ratio of 0.71, PNGJL stands out among peers as a high-growth, efficiently valued player in organized jewellery retail.

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Jul 16

Daily Brief India: LIC Housing Finance, Ola Electric, Hexaware Technologies, Adani Green Energy, Emmvee Photovoltaic Power Limited and more

In today’s briefing:

The Beat Ideas: LIC Housing Finance- RoA at Decade High, Valuation Near Lows?
Can Ola Electric Stage a Strong Comeback? Analyzing Its Current Performance & Future Potential
Hexaware Technologies (HEXT IN): Addition to One Global Index, Potential Deletion from the Other
Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia
Emmvee Photovoltaic Power Ltd Pre-IPO Tearsheet

The Beat Ideas: LIC Housing Finance- RoA at Decade High, Valuation Near Lows?

India’s largest HF company with a stable loan book, supported by LIC’s parentage and a focus on salaried home loans, shows its fundamental strength.
The company demonstrates robust operational performance, marked by a decade-high 1.83% Return on Assets (RoA) and a competitive 16% Return on Equity (ROE).
It targets future growth by efficiently managing borrowing costs and strategically diversifying into higher-margin segments like project finance and LAP/LRD.

Can Ola Electric Stage a Strong Comeback? Analyzing Its Current Performance & Future Potential

Ola Electric reported a strong 35.5% QoQ increase in revenue, with a significant 32.7% increase in vehicle deliveries
Overall company showed a rebound and improvement in operational and financial performance, along with strong guidance for FY26.
Though the company continue to face key headwinds in terms of cost pressures, rare-earth related macro headwinds along with increased competition and regulatory challenges.

Hexaware Technologies (HEXT IN): Addition to One Global Index, Potential Deletion from the Other

By Dimitris Ioannidis

Hexaware Technologies (HEXW IN) went public on the NSE on 19 February 2025. Since then, the price has surged 20%, resulting in a market cap of ~$6.0bn.
The security is forecasted to be added to Global All-World at the September 2025 review, having surpassed the market cap and float cap thresholds.
If the price continues to rise, the security may be assigned to Global Standard, which could result in deletion from SmallCap without inclusion in Standard due to insufficient float cap.

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Tanvi Arora

In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Adani Green Energy, Yanlord Land, China Vanke
The UST curve bear-steepened marginally yesterday, in line with a steepening in the JGB curve and amid an absence of macro news. The yield on the 2Y UST rose 1 bp to 3.90%, while the yield on the 10Y UST was up 2 bps at 4.44%.
Equities shrugged off earlier losses to end the day marginally higher, after US President Donald Trump told reporters there could be trade talks, including with Europe. The S&P 500 rose 0.1% to 6,269, while the Nasdaq was up 0.3% at 20,640. The market focus today is on the US CPI for June.

Emmvee Photovoltaic Power Ltd Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Rosita Fernandes

Emmvee Photovoltaic Power Limited (0198068D IN) (EPPL) is looking to raise about US$350m in its upcoming India IPO. The bookrunners for the deal are JM Fin, IIFL, Jefferies, Kotak.
EPPL is an integrated solar PV module and cell manufacturer offering advanced technologies like TOPCon and Mono PERC.
According to the CRISIL Report, as on Mar 25, EPPL was the second largest pure-play integrated solar photovoltaic (PV) module and solar cell manufacturer in India by production capacity.

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Jul 15

Daily Brief India: Travel Food Services, Anthem Biosciences, Bombay Stock Exchange, Glenmark Pharmaceuticals and more

In today’s briefing:

Travel Food Services IPO Trading – Decent Anchor; Subdued Overall Demand
Anthem Biosciences IPO – Thoughts on Peer Comp and Valuation
Anthem BioSciences IPO Analysis ~ The Fastest-Growing Indian CRDMO
Anthem Biosciences IPO: Despite 100% OFS, Worth Accumulating for Long-Term Compounding
BSE Derivative Volumes Hit by Jane Street Ban, Volatility Slump: EPS Cuts & Near-Term Downgrade
Glenmark’s R&D Leap: How a Large Biotech Liscensing Deal with AbbVie Could Change Its Fortune

Travel Food Services IPO Trading – Decent Anchor; Subdued Overall Demand

Travel Food Services Ltd (1450229D IN) raised about US$233m in its India IPO.
Travel Food Services Limited (TFS) operates a network of travel quick service restaurants (Travel QSRs) and private lounges in airports.
We have looked at the company’s past performance and valuations in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about the trading dynamics.

Anthem Biosciences IPO – Thoughts on Peer Comp and Valuation

Anthem Biosciences (1234D IN) is looking to raise about US$397m in its India IPO.
Anthem Biosciences (ABS) is a contract research, development and manufacturing organisation (CRDMO) with fully integrated operations spanning drug discovery, development, and manufacturing.
We have looked at the company’s past performance in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about the peer comp and IPO valuations.

Anthem BioSciences IPO Analysis ~ The Fastest-Growing Indian CRDMO

Anthem Biosciences (1234D IN) is launching a 3,395 crore IPO via a complete OFS, with a price band of INR 540–570 per share, open from July 14 to July 16.
Company is a fully integrated CRDMO with capabilities across drug discovery, development, and manufacturing for both small molecules and biologics, serving 550+ customers globally.
The company is undertaking a major capacity expansion, set to make its fermentation capacity over 6x larger than the second-largest Indian CRDMO player post-expansion.

Anthem Biosciences IPO: Despite 100% OFS, Worth Accumulating for Long-Term Compounding

By Sreemant Dudhoria,CFA

Strong Revenue Momentum and Profitability:Anthem Biosciences (1234D IN) achieved INR 18.4bn in revenue in FY25, growing 25% CAGR over FY20–FY25,with industry-leading EBITDA margins of 36.8% and PAT margin of 23.4%
Unique Dual Capability in Biologics and Small Molecules:Among the few Indian CRDMOs with end-to-end capabilities across both small and large molecules, and technology-driven portfolio including ADCs, RNAi, peptides, and oligonucleotides
Peer-Leading Returns and Robust Pipeline: Anthem boasts the highest ROCE (26.9%) among Indian peers, with significant IP-backed revenue streams and global molecule commercialization. It is a BUY for long term.

BSE Derivative Volumes Hit by Jane Street Ban, Volatility Slump: EPS Cuts & Near-Term Downgrade

BSE’s Option Premium ADTO in July MTD is down 25% MoM to INR 105bn amid lower market volatility and regulatory overhang from SEBI’s ban on Jane Street.
This weakness has triggered another 6–8% volume cut assumption in the market, on top of the 4–5% volume cut in June 2025.
BSE will face pressure in the near-term due to lower volume and valuation pressure, but long-term optimism tied to earnings if volumes normalize and reforms push investors toward cash equities.

Glenmark’s R&D Leap: How a Large Biotech Liscensing Deal with AbbVie Could Change Its Fortune

Glenmark Pharmaceuticals (GNP IN) signed the world’s fourth-largest biotech licensing deal by upfront value, receiving $700 million from AbbVie for its cancer drug ISB 2001.
The agreement grants AbbVie global rights for key markets while Glenmark retains Emerging Market access, unlocking $1.9 billion in total potential proceeds.
This transforms Glenmark into a net-cash company, funds IGI’s R&D pipeline, delays IPO needs, and positions India as a serious biotech innovation hub.

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Jul 14

Daily Brief India: Indian Energy Exchange Ltd, NSDL, JSW Steel Ltd, Tata Steel Ltd and more

In today’s briefing:

IEX Powers Ahead: Volume Growth Signals Strong Q1 and Strategic Evolution
NSDL IPO: The Bear Case
JSW Steel: Steady Output Amid Pricing Pressure; Record Volumes Likely Ahead
Tata Steel – 1QFY26: Stable Output, Soft Deliveries Amid Planned Maintenance

IEX Powers Ahead: Volume Growth Signals Strong Q1 and Strategic Evolution

Volume Data: IEX volumes rose 15% YoY in Q1 FY26, led by strong RTM and Green Market growth.
Near-Term Outlook: Higher volumes should lift Q1 earnings, with EBITDA and PAT expected to rise ~22%.
Future Plans: IEX is launching new products like G-RTM and LDCs, and investing in P2P and smart grid tech.

NSDL IPO: The Bear Case

By Arun George

National Securities Depository Limited/NSDL (NSDL IN) is the largest depository in India. It is seeking to raise US$400 million.
In NSDL IPO: The Bull Case, I highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, I outline the bear case.
The bear case rests on the core business’s lower growth and margins compared to its key peer and the banking services’ weak performance.

JSW Steel: Steady Output Amid Pricing Pressure; Record Volumes Likely Ahead

Volume: JSW Steel reported 7.26 Mnt of crude steel production in Q1 FY26, up 14% YoY, despite seasonal and maintenance-related disruptions.
Expansion: The company is on track to scale up its capacity from 35.7 MTPA to 43.4 MTPA by FY28, led by ramp-ups at Vijayanagar, Dolvi, and greenfield Odisha.
BPSL: Legal clarity on the BPSL acquisition remains pending, though operations have been successfully ramped up to 4.5 MTPA under JSW’s management.

Tata Steel – 1QFY26: Stable Output, Soft Deliveries Amid Planned Maintenance

Tata Steel’s total crude steel production stood at 7.29 million tons in 1QFY26, flat YoY but down 3% QoQ due to upstream maintenance disruptions in India.
In Europe, the Netherlands saw steady output, while the UK is progressing with its 3.2 MTPA EAF transition at Port Talbot, slated to begin construction in July 2025.
With blast furnace relining at Jamshedpur nearing completion and NINL operations normalized, volume recovery is expected from Q2 onward.

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Jul 13

Daily Brief India: Anthem Biosciences and more

In today’s briefing:

IPO Review – Anthem Biosciences – Pioneering Pharma CRDMO with Advanced Capabilities – Fairly Priced

IPO Review – Anthem Biosciences – Pioneering Pharma CRDMO with Advanced Capabilities – Fairly Priced

By Himanshu Dugar

Anthem is a CRDMO platform with 5 main modalities (RNAi, ADC, peptides, lipids and oligonucleotides) and 4 manufacturing capabilities (custom synthesis, flow chemistry, fermentation and biotransformation).
With its aggressive focus on emerging biotech; industry tailwinds, upcoming capacities in fermentation and CSM; they are positioned for 20+% revenue growth and industry leading operating margins of 35+%.
We estimate FY26 EPS of INR 9-11, implying IPO multiple of 50-62x earnings. Truenorth and Portsmouth holding 3.9% and 2.7% post-IPO creates a technical overhang.

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Jul 12

Daily Brief India: Anthem Biosciences, Smartworks Coworking Spaces Ltd, Juniper Green Energy Ltd and more

In today’s briefing:

Anthem Biosciences IPO – D&M Vertical Continues to Drive CRDMO Business
Smartworks Coworking Spaces Ltd. IPO – Should You Sign the Lease?
Juniper Green Energy Ltd Pre-IPO Tearsheet
Anthem Biosciences IPO: FY25 In High Trajectory; Poised for Long-Term Growth; Attractive IPO Pricing

Anthem Biosciences IPO – D&M Vertical Continues to Drive CRDMO Business

Anthem Biosciences (1234D IN) is looking to raise about US$397m in its India IPO.
Anthem Biosciences (ABS) is a contract research, development and manufacturing organisation (CRDMO) with fully integrated operations spanning drug discovery, development, and manufacturing.
We have looked at the company’s past performance in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about the RHP updates.

Smartworks Coworking Spaces Ltd. IPO – Should You Sign the Lease?