India

In today’s briefing:

Greaves Cotton Q4 FY25 Update: Diversification Strategy Drives Strong Performance & Profitability

Greaves Cotton Q4 FY25 Update: Diversification Strategy Drives Strong Performance & Profitability

Greaves Cotton (GRV IN) reported impressive Q4 and FY25 results, marking a 93% YoY increase in EBITDA and strong revenue growth across key sectors, especially electric mobility.
The company’s transformation through diversification into high-margin segments, including EVs and non-auto applications, has improved profitability, solidifying its position for long-term growth.
With strong leadership, technological advancements, and a clear 2030 growth vision, Greaves Cotton is well-poised to thrive in emerging markets, especially EV and CNG segments.

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May 03

Daily Brief India: JSW Steel Ltd, Adani Enterprises, ICICI Bank Ltd, Laurus Labs, Vedanta Resources and more

In today’s briefing:

JSW Steel’s Tumble: Untangling the Bhushan Power & Steel Supreme Court Setback
Adani Enterprises: Airports, Green Energy, and Industrial Projects Are the Key Growth Drivers
Invest As If the Lows Are In; EURO STOXX 50 and TOPIX Reclaim Key Levels
Laurus Labs Q4 FY25 Update: Diversification and Strategic R&D Drive Growth
Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

JSW Steel’s Tumble: Untangling the Bhushan Power & Steel Supreme Court Setback

JSW Steel Ltd (JSTL IN)‘s resolution plan for Bhushan Power & Steel was rejected by the Supreme Court, ordering its liquidation.
The rejection undermines JSW Steel’s capacity expansion and investment plans, leading to significant financial and strategic setbacks.
The ruling highlights the importance of strict adherence to IBC provisions and raises concerns over the predictability of large asset resolutions.

Adani Enterprises: Airports, Green Energy, and Industrial Projects Are the Key Growth Drivers

Adani Enterprises’ consolidated EBITDA rose by 26% to Rs16,722 crore in FY25, supported by expansion across key infrastructure and energy businesses.
Focus areas include scaling airports, green hydrogen production, solar manufacturing, data centers, and stabilized annuity cash flows from roads.
Key risks are project execution delays, regulatory oversight, high leverage, ESG scrutiny etc.

Invest As If the Lows Are In; EURO STOXX 50 and TOPIX Reclaim Key Levels

By Joe Jasper

We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass when we discussed SPX 5110-5120 as a bounce spot and a level to trade [long] against.
Possible that major lows are in at 4800-4820 SPX and $402-$412 on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), as discussed in 4/10/25 Int’l Compass. For now we want to remain near-term bullish
200-Day MAs on ACWI-US and SPX are spots where they could roll over. This is just a lean; if we see no reason to sell at those levels, we won’t.

Laurus Labs Q4 FY25 Update: Diversification and Strategic R&D Drive Growth

Laurus Labs (LAURUS IN) achieved a 122% YoY increase in PAT for FY25, driven by strong CDMO execution and higher margins.
The company is accelerating its transformation from an ARV-heavy model to a diversified CDMO/CMO business, with growing client base and strong pipeline visibility.
Laurus’ focus on small molecule and bio-CDMO segments, supported by strategic investments in new capacities, positions the company for continued growth, with improved asset turnover and higher operating leverage.

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Trung Nguyen

US markets were in risk-on mode overnight, amid strong earnings from tech companies.
The S&P 500 was up 0.6% for the eighth consecutive day, while the Nasdaq gained 1.5%.
US Treasuries steepened, with the 2Y yield shrinking by 5 bps but the 30Y gaining 3 bps as investors slightly curbed their bets on US interest-rate cuts this year given factory activity data, while keeping the inflation expectation further out.

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May 02

Daily Brief India: Vedanta Ltd, Jindal Steel & Power, TVS Motor and more

In today’s briefing:

Vedanta’s Volume-Led Growth and Deleveraging Journey
Commissioning Milestones Critical as JSPL Enters Peak Expansion Phase
TVS Motor Q4FY25 Review: Premium Valuation Backed by Strategic Execution or Investor Over-Optimism?

Vedanta’s Volume-Led Growth and Deleveraging Journey

Vedanta reported 10% revenue growth and 37% EBITDA growth in FY25, supported by volume expansion across aluminium and zinc businesses.
Major capex projects, including Gamsberg Phase 2 and captive bauxite and coal mines, are expected to drive volume growth through FY27, with steady operational guidance.
Vedanta Resources standalone net debt reduced from $8.9 billion to $4.9 billion over three years, easing refinancing risks and improving financial flexibility.

Commissioning Milestones Critical as JSPL Enters Peak Expansion Phase

FY25 steel production grew 2% YoY to 8.12 MT; adjusted EBITDA stood at Rs9,570 crore with EBITDA/t of Rs12,008; net debt/EBITDA improved to 1.26x.
Major projects including BF2, BOS2, CRM complex, slurry pipeline, and SBPP are targeted for commissioning by FY26-end, expanding steel capacity to 14.45 MTPA.
Near-Term priorities are volume ramp-up, improving cost efficiency through captive resources and logistics, and maintaining strict capital discipline with net debt/EBITDA below 1.5x.

TVS Motor Q4FY25 Review: Premium Valuation Backed by Strategic Execution or Investor Over-Optimism?

By Sreemant Dudhoria

Robust Operating Performance:TVS Motor (TVSL IN) reported 17% YoY revenue growth in Q4FY25 with EBITDA margins at 12.5% (ex-PLI) — stable despite input cost pressures.
EV Momentum & Premium Product Strength: EV sales rose 54% YoY, and TVS continued to gain traction in the premium segment through its Apache and Ntorq models.
Valuation Demands Flawless Execution:At 58x P/E TTM EPS,TVS commands a steep premium over peers.Justifying this requires sustained outperformance in EV adoption, export monetization, and premium product cycles without margin erosion.

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May 01

Daily Brief India: Gensol Engineering, Indusind Bank, Prestige Hospitality Ventures Ltd, Fdc Ltd, Adani Energy Solutions, Adani Green Energy and more

In today’s briefing:

Gensol Engineering Scandal: Our AI System Saw This Coming
Indusind Bank: KMP Resignations Amid Derivative Discrepancy Flags Strategic Concerns
Prestige Hospitality Ventures Ltd Pre-IPO Tearsheet
Seasonal Play: FDC Ltd- Electral’s Summer Surge and Expanding into Growing Categories
Adani Energy Solutions Ltd. Q4 FY25 Update: Robust Growth Driven by T&D Expansion
Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

Gensol Engineering Scandal: Our AI System Saw This Coming

By Mark Jolley

Indian regulator barred Gensol Engineering’s founders for alleged fund diversion, causing a 90% stock plunge
Unusual growth and poor governance were flagged in Gensol’s accounts by Transparently’s AI system
Transparently’s “F” risk rating would have likely steered investors away from Gensol.

Indusind Bank: KMP Resignations Amid Derivative Discrepancy Flags Strategic Concerns

Indusind Bank (IIB IN) , one of India’s prominent private-sector banks, recently disclosed a significant accounting discrepancy related to its derivatives portfolio.
The estimated adverse impact of these lapses is INR 1,959 crore (~2.27% of the bank’s net worth), which will be accounted for in Q4FY25, likely resulting in a net loss.
The resignations of the CEO and Deputy CEO raise concerns on potential unidentified issues, including regulatory scrutiny, other accounting lapses and potential slowdown in business post top management rejig.

Prestige Hospitality Ventures Ltd Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Rosita Fernandes

Prestige Hospitality Ventures Ltd (1831338D IN) (PHVL) is looking to raise around US$317m in its upcoming India IPO. The bookrunners for the deal are JM Fin, CLSA, JPM, Kotak.
PHVL is part of the Prestige Group. It is a hospitality asset owner and developer focused on luxury, upper upscale, and upper midscale properties in India.
As of Dec 24, PHVL’s portfolio includes seven operating hospitality assets with a total of 1,445 keys, including one property under renovation with 190 keys.

Seasonal Play: FDC Ltd- Electral’s Summer Surge and Expanding into Growing Categories

FDC Limited is a pioneer in India’s pharmaceutical landscape, especially in Oral Rehydration Salts (ORS) and specialized formulations.
The company’s flagship brand, Electral, continues to be a major revenue contributor, despite margin pressures from regulatory price caps.
FDC’s strategic capex in ophthalmic, ear, and nasal drops business, coupled with its domestic and international presence, positions it strongly for sustained growth.

Adani Energy Solutions Ltd. Q4 FY25 Update: Robust Growth Driven by T&D Expansion

Adani Energy Solutions (ADANIT IN)’s Q4 FY25 PAT jumped 87% YoY to INR 714 crore, driven by strong transmission execution and distribution growth.
The company’s record order book of INR 59,936 crore and aggressive smart metering ramp-up signal sustained growth ahead.
AESL is strengthening its position across transmission, distribution, and metering, reinforcing its multi-year growth visibility.

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Tanvi Arora

In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Adani Green Energy, Meituan
US equity rose for the sixth consecutive day, the best streak since March 2022, as it continued to look past weak consumer confidence and labour data as well as no signs of an easing in the tariff situation .
The S&P 500 was up by 0.6%, and the Nasdaq by 0.5%. US Treasury yields shrank 3-5 bps across the curve. The biggest move was probably a 6.7% correction in steel prices (HRC), following a YTD spike.

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Apr 30

Daily Brief India: Adani Green Energy, Syngene International Ltd, Ultratech Cement and more

In today’s briefing:

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia
Why Syngene International’s FY26 Will Be a Transition Year?
Strong Volumes Offset by Declining Margins and Capital Efficiency at UltraTech

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Tanvi Arora

In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Adani Green Energy, Nickel Industries
The US equity market rebounded overnight to erase earlier losses in the day. The S&P 500 was up for a fifth straight day (its longest streak since November 2024), albeit at just 0.1%.
In the US, the Dallas Fed manufacturing activity index plunged to negative 35.8 (-14.1 e / -16.3 p) in March, reaching its lowest level since May 2020. The survey showed executives describing the situation as “chaos” and “insanity”.

Why Syngene International’s FY26 Will Be a Transition Year?

Syngene International Ltd (SYNG IN) guided for mid-single digit revenue growth and lower EBITDA margins in FY26, following a mixed performance in FY25.
The moderated outlook is primarily due to the initial operational costs and depreciation from the new US biologics facility and a normalization of inventory levels for a key client.
Focus shifts to the successful integration and ramp-up of new capacities and the potential for underlying growth in key segments to materialize beyond the transient FY26.

Strong Volumes Offset by Declining Margins and Capital Efficiency at UltraTech

FY25 EBITDA growth was primarily volume-driven, with EBITDA/ton declining to Rs988 due to flat realizations and initial dilution from acquisitions.
UltraTech is investing Rs1,800 crore to enter the cables and wires segment, targeting December 2026 commissioning and leveraging its existing retail and B2B networks.
At Rs12,000 per share, the stock trades at 51–53x FY26E EPS, supported by expectations of sustained volume growth and operational efficiency gains.

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Apr 29

Daily Brief India: Hyundai Motor India , Ramkrishna Forgings , Ather Energy, Reliance Industries, Maruti Suzuki India, Mahindra & Mahindra, CARE Ratings, NIFTY Index and more

In today’s briefing:

IPO Lock-In Expiry: These 6 Companies Need Closer Look!
Ramkrishna Forgings Ltd: Missing Inventory Exposes the Audit Blind Spot
Ather Energy IPO- Pioneer, But Falling Behind
Ather Energy IPO | Showroom and Service Center Visits
Reliance: Betting Big on New Energy
Maruti Suzuki India (MSIL) – Top 5 Takeaways from Q4FY25 Results
Event Driven: Mahindra & Mahindra Acquired SML Isuzu, Strengthening Presence in CV
The Beat Ideas: CARE Ratings- India’s Only Homegrown CRA Reclaims Its Edge
Ather Energy IPO: A High-Risk Ride in a Crowded E2W Market
NSE NIFTY50/ Vol Update / Option Markets Remain in High Vol-Regime

IPO Lock-In Expiry: These 6 Companies Need Closer Look!

India is set to witness INR 4.02 trillion worth of Pre-IPO shares becoming tradeable by June 2025, lead to huge selling pressure among various IPO stocks.
We identified 6 Companies where lock-in is about to expire and analyzed their current status in terms of their business and industry environment.
Some fundamentally good companies also provide opportunities at a good price due to a fall because of selling pressure in these companies after lock-in expiry.

Ramkrishna Forgings Ltd: Missing Inventory Exposes the Audit Blind Spot

By Nitin Mangal

On April 26, 2025, Ramkrishna Forgings (RMKF IN) (RKFL) disclosed that during the annual physical verification of inventory for the financial year ending March 31, 2025, there were discrepancies observed.
The company has appointed independent external agencies to dig-out the findings, but the fact that management expects a 4-5% erosion of net-worth has caught the attention of many.
While this exposes the accounting and governance, the bigger picture is that it also exposes a big audit blind spot relating to inventory discrepancy threshold of 10%.

Ather Energy IPO- Pioneer, But Falling Behind

By Nitin Mangal

Ather Energy (1207922D IN) kickstarts its INR 29.8 bn worth IPO this week, comprising of fresh issue worth INR 26.3 bn and 11.1 mn OFS valued at INR 3.5 bn.
Ather, a pioneer, was the first entity to launch a smart scooter back in 2018. The company currently is 4th largest EV player with a market share of 10.7%.
Although it shows strong R&D profile and a positive warranty trend, Ather continues its heavy cash burn and has exorbitant wages, loss of market share, increased discounting, etc.

Ather Energy IPO | Showroom and Service Center Visits

By Pranav Bhavsar

Ather Energy (1207922D IN) IPO opened today (April 28, 2025) with a price band of Rs 304-321 per share, and will remain open until April 30, 2025.
This insight focuses on our takeaways from visiting various Ather Showroom and Service Centers across the Country.
The product quality, service feedback and product positioning is relatively better than competition. The product is good, business probably not.

Reliance: Betting Big on New Energy

Reliance plans to invest Rs40,000–45,000 crore (30% of total capex) into its New Energy business over FY25–FY28.
Solar PV manufacturing (10 GW), Green Hydrogen (electrolyzers + hydrogen production), Energy Storage (30 GWh batteries), Biogas (CBG plants), and Carbon Capture initiatives.
New Energy could contribute 8–10% of Reliance’s total EBITDA over the next 10 years as projects mature and commercial operations ramp up.

Maruti Suzuki India (MSIL) – Top 5 Takeaways from Q4FY25 Results

By Sreemant Dudhoria

Maruti Suzuki India (MSIL IN)’s Q4 FY25 results missed estimates, with revenue up 6.4% YoY but PAT down 4.3% YoY, impacted by higher costs from new launches and EV investments.
Management guides for 1–2% industry growth in FY26 but expects to outperform, led by new SUV launches and strong export growth (+20% targeted).
Valuation at ~25x trailing EPS appears fair relative to historical average; near-term upside looks capped given muted demand and margin pressures.

Event Driven: Mahindra & Mahindra Acquired SML Isuzu, Strengthening Presence in CV

Mahindra & Mahindra (MM IN) is acquiring a 58.96% stake in SML Isuzu through SPAs with Sumitomo Corp (8053 JP) and Isuzu Motors (7202 JP), along with open offer.
The acquisition aims to significantly strengthen M&M’s position in the >3.5T commercial vehicle segment, doubling its market share initially and targeting further growth.
This strategic move signals M&M’s clear intent to become a full-range player in commercial vehicles, leveraging synergies in product, network, and manufacturing.

The Beat Ideas: CARE Ratings- India’s Only Homegrown CRA Reclaims Its Edge

CARE Ratings has emerged stronger post-IL&FS through board reconstitution, governance reforms, and renewed focus on ESG-linked services.
With India’s credit market entering a capex-led upcycle and ESG regulations tightening, CRAs like CARE are structurally well-placed to benefit.
Despite lagging CRISIL and ICRA in tech-enabled analytics, CARE’s high share of rating revenue (~90%) and clean balance sheet provide room for re-rating, supported by industry tailwinds.

Ather Energy IPO: A High-Risk Ride in a Crowded E2W Market

Ather Energy is launching an IPO to raise INR 2,626 crore for capacity expansion, R&D, and marketing, and OFS of INR 350 Crore.
Despite strong technological positioning, Ather faces rising competitive pressure, high cash burn, low capacity utilization, and growing risks from policy and supplier dependencies.
While Ather’s innovation strength is intact, its financial instability and fierce competition make the IPO a high-risk, cautious-watch opportunity rather than a straightforward growth bet.

NSE NIFTY50/ Vol Update / Option Markets Remain in High Vol-Regime

By Sankalp Singh

IVs rise as markets return from holiday-truncated week, moving from 14.2% to 15.8%. Monthly contracts benefit most as they capture multiple tier-1 event risks.
“High & Up” vol-state persists. Though there is a high probability of switching to “High & Down” with slight IV stabilization.
TACTICAL IMPLICATIONS: Avoid negative Gamma/ Smile/ Vega exposure. Wait for vol-regime shift before initiating new risk-premia harvesting structures

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Apr 28

Daily Brief India: Ather Energy, Godawari Power and Ispat and more

In today’s briefing:

Ather Energy IPO: Expensive and No Immediate Index Inclusion
GPIL: Mining to Recycling

Ather Energy IPO: Expensive and No Immediate Index Inclusion

By Brian Freitas

Ather Energy is looking to raise INR 30bn (US$349m) in its IPO, valuing the company at INR 120bn (US$1.4bn). The company appears to be expensive compared to peers.
Ather Energy could be added to one global smallcap index in August/November and to another in December/March. Small Cap classification for AMFI and no major local index inclusion.
The continued selloff in Ola Electric will give investors pause, especially given Ather Energy‘s stagnant market share and continued losses. There is supply in Ola Electric with PE/VC investors selling.

GPIL: Mining to Recycling

GPIL operates integrated iron ore mining, pellet, and steel facilities with captive power assets in Chhattisgarh.
Acquired 51% stake in Jammu Pigments to enter non-ferrous recycling.
Focused on mining and pellet capacity expansion, with selective growth in recycling and smaller steel projects.

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Apr 27

Daily Brief India: Ramkrishna Forgings , Hindustan Zinc and more

In today’s briefing:

Ramkrishna Forgings: Inventory Discrepancies Raise Concern Over Governance
HZ IN: Operational Targets and Valuation Framework

Ramkrishna Forgings: Inventory Discrepancies Raise Concern Over Governance

Ramkrishna Forgings (RK Forgings) recently reported discrepancies in its inventory during the annual physical verification for FY 2024.
The company has engaged independent external agencies to conduct a joint fact-finding study, aiming to maintain transparency and accountability.
Estimates suggest an adverse impact of 4-5% on the company’s net worth. While the impact on overall inventory is almost 10% of the total inventory, amounting to INR 120 crore

HZ IN: Operational Targets and Valuation Framework

Hindustan Zinc’s Q4 FY25 PAT rose 47% YoY to Rs3,003 crore; EBITDA grew 32% YoY; zinc cost of production hit a 16-quarter low at $994/t.
FY26 guidance targets 1.12 Mt mined metal, 700–710 MT silver, and zinc cost of production between $1,025–1,050/t, slightly higher due to ore grade normalization.
HZL trades at ~21.5x P/E and ~12x EV/EBITDA, at a premium to some global peers, with valuations sensitive to commodity prices, cost trends, and execution on expansion plans.

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Apr 26

Daily Brief India: Devyani International , Waaree Energies, Gold Plus Glass Industry Ltd, SGX Rubber Future TSR20, Jio Financial Services and more

In today’s briefing:

Devyani International’s Acquisition of Sky Gate Hospitality: A Strategic Move for Accelerated Growth
Waaree Energies Pre IPO Lock-In Opens: What’s The Way Ahead
From Panels to Powerhouses: How Waaree Energies Is Building India’s Solar Backbone
Gold Plus Glass Industry Pre-IPO – Volatile Margins and Rising Debt
Indian Rubber Prices Shrugging Off Negative Trump Tariff Impact
Jio Financial Q4 FY25 Update: Strategic Growth and Digital Expansion Drive Strong Performance

Devyani International’s Acquisition of Sky Gate Hospitality: A Strategic Move for Accelerated Growth

Devyani International acquired an Indian QSR brand, Sky Gate, marking its entry into Biryani.
The acquisition deal is valued at INR 4.19 billion, translating to a relatively low 1.9x FY25 EV/Sales. This attractive valuation provides DIL with an entry into a high-TAM segment.
No single brand has surpassed INR 3 bn in revenue due to regional taste differences, difficulty in standardising quality, and difficulty in achieving profitability due to high operational costs

Waaree Energies Pre IPO Lock-In Opens: What’s The Way Ahead

Waaree Energies posted exceptional Q4 and FY25 results, reporting a 72.6% YoY increase in EBITDA and a robust order book of INR 47,000 crores.
The company continues to ramp up its manufacturing capacities, with a focus on solar cells, modules, and energy storage, positioning itself as a leader in India’s solar transition.
Strong operational performance, strategic investments in green energy, and a solid order book enhance confidence in Waaree’s growth prospects for FY26 and beyond.

From Panels to Powerhouses: How Waaree Energies Is Building India’s Solar Backbone

By Viral Kishorchandra Shah

Waaree Energies is rapidly expanding, targeting 21 GW solar modules, 11.4 GW cells, and 6 GW ingots by FY27
The company boasts a robust Rs 47,000 crore order book, with 57% international and 43% domestic market share
Waaree diversifies into batteries, green hydrogen, and inverters, while mitigating risks via local production

Gold Plus Glass Industry Pre-IPO – Volatile Margins and Rising Debt

By Rosita Fernandes

Gold Plus Glass Industry Ltd (GPGI IN) is planning to raise about US$200m in its upcoming India IPO.
Gold Plus Glass Industry Ltd (GPGI) is engaged in the manufacturing of float glass, mirrors, and other value-added types of glass.
According to the CRISIL Report, GPGI was India’s second-largest float glass manufacturer, holding a 22% market share as of Sept 2023.

Indian Rubber Prices Shrugging Off Negative Trump Tariff Impact

By Vinod Nedumudy

RSS-4 prices near stable around INR 198/kg for past ten days
Kerala farmers engaged in rainguarding in right earnest
RRII devises process for extracting top-quality rubber from skim latex

Jio Financial Q4 FY25 Update: Strategic Growth and Digital Expansion Drive Strong Performance

Jio Financial Services (JIOFIN IN) reported a substantial increase in its Assets Under Management (AUM) to 10,053 crore, marking a 139% QoQ growth.
The company’s digital-first approach through the JioFinance app and the rapid growth in Jio Payments Bank’s customer base demonstrate its expanding market footprint and customer engagement.
The strategic investments in technology, robust growth in core segments, and improved customer acquisition processes provide strong momentum for FY26 and beyond, reinforcing confidence in JFSL’s growth trajectory.

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Apr 25

Daily Brief India: Apeejay Surrendra Park Hotel, SAMHI Hotels , Dorf-Ketal Chemicals Ltd, Ather Energy and more

In today’s briefing:

The Beat Ideas: Park Hotels: Serving Long-Term Value
Update- SAMHI Hotels: Strategic Partnership with GIC
Dorf-Ketal Chemicals India Pre-IPO – The Negatives – Elevated Borrowings and Tariff Uncertainty
Ather Energy IPO – Still Not Cheap Enough

The Beat Ideas: Park Hotels: Serving Long-Term Value

Apeejay Surrendra Park Hotel (PARK IN), With a sharp pivot post-IPO, it has deleveraged, scaled Flurys to 100 outlets, and launched ARR-led palace properties, all while staying asset-light and cash-smart.
F&B now contributes nearly half of revenues, ARRs are climbing, and legacy land is being monetised to fund INR 500 crore of capex without debt.
Earlier seen as a traditional hotel chain, Park now to be looked as a brand with strong visibility, smart capital use, and fresh retail momentum.

Update- SAMHI Hotels: Strategic Partnership with GIC