India

In today’s briefing:

Quiddity Leaderboard BSE/SENSEX Jun25: Pair Trade Delivers Strong Alpha; More Pair Trade Ideas
360 ONE WAM Acquires UBS India Wealth Business
Dorf-Ketal Chemicals India Pre-IPO -The Positives – Strategic Blend of Organic & Inorganic Expansion
Lloyds Metals: On the Verge of a Massive Ramp-Up

Quiddity Leaderboard BSE/SENSEX Jun25: Pair Trade Delivers Strong Alpha; More Pair Trade Ideas

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

In this insight, we take a look at the Potential ADDs/DELs for the BSE SENSEX, BSE 100, and BSE 200 indices in the June 2025 index rebal event.
As things stand, there could be two index changes for the SENSEX index.
There could be three ADDs/DELs for the BSE 100 index and eight ADDs/DELs for the BSE 200 index.

360 ONE WAM Acquires UBS India Wealth Business

360 ONE WAM acquires UBS AG’s onshore wealth management business in India for INR 307 crore, adding INR 26,000 crore AUM and expanding its product and client base.
This acquisition strengthens 360 ONE’s domestic position and offers UBS’s global expertise, creating a powerful, dual-access wealth management platform for global Indians, enhancing growth opportunities.
The deal signifies a strategic collaboration, not just an exit, with UBS retaining a stake& expanding its Indian operations through 360 ONE, enhancing the value proposition for both firms’ clients.

Dorf-Ketal Chemicals India Pre-IPO -The Positives – Strategic Blend of Organic & Inorganic Expansion

By Akshat Shah

Dorf-Ketal Chemicals Ltd (998552Z IN) (DKCI) is looking to raise about US$579m in its upcoming India IPO.
DKCI is an R&D and innovation-focused global manufacturer and supplier of specialty chemicals, catering to hydrocarbons and industrial supply chains, and customers with diverse applications across various industrial segments.
In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal.

Lloyds Metals: On the Verge of a Massive Ramp-Up

Resource-Backed Growth Story: Lloyds Metals & Energy Ltd. owns 857 MT of iron ore reserves (including 700 MT BHQ) with a 50-year lease, providing unmatched raw material security.
Transformational Expansion + MDO Play: Ongoing capex will ramp mining to 25+ MTPA and add 4.2 MTPA of steel capacity. Acquisition of Thriveni’s MDO business adds high-margin, annuity-style revenue stream.
Tax-Efficient, Debt-Light Strategy: Supported by Maharashtra’s IPS benefits, Lloyds is executing a capital-intensive buildout while aiming to remain net-debt free and structurally cost-advantaged.

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Apr 23

Daily Brief India: Devyani International , Danish Power, Shilchar Technologies, Bandhan Bank Ltd, Waaree Energies and more

In today’s briefing:

Devyani Intnl.: Yum Brands India Franchisee to Acquire Cloud Kitchen Operator. In Pursuit of Growth
The Beat Ideas: Danish Power Limited – Riding the Green Energy Wave
The Beat Ideas- Shilchar Technologies: Powering the Grid, Energizing Growth
Bandhan Bank Ltd (BANDHAN IN) | Peak Provisions Behind
Waaree Energies IPO Lockup – Lots of Individual Shareholders Own over US$2bn Worth of Stock

Devyani Intnl.: Yum Brands India Franchisee to Acquire Cloud Kitchen Operator. In Pursuit of Growth

By Devi Subhakesan

Devyani International (DEVYANI IN) which operates QSRs such as KFC, Pizza Hut in India plans to acquire Sky Gate Hospitality Pvt. Ltd., the operator of the “Biryani By Kilo”.
This acquisition can diversify Devyani’s portfolio beyond its core quick‑service restaurant (QSR) franchises—KFC and Pizza Hut—at a time when same‑store sales growth has softened.
With the rise of off-premise dining and food delivery post pandemic, cloud kitchens are expanding across the board thanks to scalable, asset‑light model, and ability to bypass traditional dine‑in overheads.

The Beat Ideas: Danish Power Limited – Riding the Green Energy Wave

Danish Power (DANISH IN) stands to benefit from India’s aggressive shift towards renewable energy, particularly solar, supported by strong product offerings like Inverter Duty Transformers, which drive substantial revenue growth.
DPL’s strategic shift to higher-margin products, improved operating leverage, and expanded capacity should fuel margin expansion and support sustained profitability, positioning it well for continued growth and competitiveness.
With a robust order book exceeding INR 400 crore and an active pipeline, DPL has solid revenue visibility supported by strong demand in domestic and international markets.

The Beat Ideas- Shilchar Technologies: Powering the Grid, Energizing Growth

Shilchar’s focus on Inverter Duty Transformers positions it to capitalize on the booming renewable energy sector, especially solar, supporting long-term growth and profitability.
Shilchar’s recent capacity expansion, with a potential to scale further, ensures it can meet increasing domestic and export demand for transformers, positioning it for sustained market leadership.
Shilchar’s debt-free balance sheet and strong cash reserves enable strategic reinvestment in capacity and technology, ensuring continued growth in the competitive transformer industry.

Bandhan Bank Ltd (BANDHAN IN) | Peak Provisions Behind

By Pranav Bhavsar

We interacted with Microfinance BU (Business Unit) managers of Bandhan Bank Ltd (BANDHAN IN) across major states in India.
Our objective was to understand the current collection trends and asset quality issues especially in the Microfinance Portfolio.
Based on our interactions, we would like to put a case for declining provisions going ahead.

Waaree Energies IPO Lockup – Lots of Individual Shareholders Own over US$2bn Worth of Stock

By Sumeet Singh

Waaree Energies (WAAREEEN IN) raised around US$514m in its India IPO in October 2024. The lockup on its pre-IPO investors is set to expire soon.
Waaree Energies is a solar PV module manufacturer in India with an aggregate installed capacity of 12 GW, as of Jun 2024.
In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.

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Apr 22

Daily Brief India: Swiggy, Maharashtra Seamless, Jubilant Agri and Consumer Products, Gensol Engineering, SGX Rubber Future TSR20, NIFTY Index and more

In today’s briefing:

Swiggy (SWIGGY IN): US$7.6bn Lock-Up Expiry & Index Inclusion
MSL: High ROCE, Strong Moat – Rides Energy Capex Surge
Event Driven: Jubilant Agri & Consumer Products Demerger- Next Value Creator from the Bhartia Group?
India’s Biggest Small-Cap Shell Game
Farmers Lock Horns With Scientists Over Rubber Clone Yields In India
NSE NIFTY50/ Vol Update / Improved Risk Sentiment & Truncated Week Cause Risk-Premia Compression

Swiggy (SWIGGY IN): US$7.6bn Lock-Up Expiry & Index Inclusion

By Brian Freitas

Swiggy (SWIGGY IN) listed in November 2024 and around 85% of the shares outstanding (US$7.6bn) will unlock on 13 May.
Nearly 80% of the shares that unlock are held by pre-IPO PE/VC investors and they are 100% in the money in most cases. Expect the selldown to commence soon.
Swiggy (SWIGGY IN) should be added to one global index in June, while inclusion in the other global index will require a small price increase or selling from PE/VC investors.

MSL: High ROCE, Strong Moat – Rides Energy Capex Surge

Market leader with 55% share in seamless pipes, Rs2,400 Cr net cash, and stable Rs15,000–17,000/ton EBITDA backed by strong oil & gas demand.
Efficient capital allocator delivering 20%+ ROCE, with consistent insider buying reflecting high promoter confidence.
26% profit CAGR over 5 years, yet trades at ~12x P/E, offering value in a structurally growing industry.

Event Driven: Jubilant Agri & Consumer Products Demerger- Next Value Creator from the Bhartia Group?

Separation of fertilizer division enables sharper valuation for adhesives, removing drag from losses and unlocking pure-play growth potential.
High growth with underpriced products; margin expansion likely as brand strength builds, closing gap with Pidilite and Jyoti Resins.
Once loss-making agri business now EBIT-positive; post-demerger focus may revive segment and surprise on valuations.

India’s Biggest Small-Cap Shell Game

The Mahadev Betting Scam exposed the infiltration of illegal gambling money into the stock market, manipulating small-cap stocks through offshore shell companies and pump-and-dump strategies.
This scandal demonstrates how vulnerable markets are to operator-driven speculation, leading to artificial stock price surges, which mislead investors and undermine market integrity, creating systemic risks.
The episode emphasizes the need for heightened due diligence, transparency, and scrutiny of foreign portfolio investors, encouraging investors to be more cautious of unexplained stock movements and shell company involvement.

Farmers Lock Horns With Scientists Over Rubber Clone Yields In India

By Vinod Nedumudy

Farmers say RRII 400 clone series performs below par
RRII Head rejects charges, tells farmers to follow guidance
Kerala farmers demand introduction of GM crops

NSE NIFTY50/ Vol Update / Improved Risk Sentiment & Truncated Week Cause Risk-Premia Compression

By Sankalp Singh

Improved risk sentiment & holiday truncated week cause compression of risk premia. Monthly IVs fell over -5.0 vol-points over the 3-day session to close at 14.2%.
Vol-Regime continues to stay in “High & Up” vol-state. Stabilization in IVs & RVs required for switch to “High & Down”. Extreme Backwardation of the Vol-curve has now subsided
Tactical Implications: (1) Negative Gamma strategies have been battered. Avoid allocation to these while “High & Up” vol-state prevails.

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Apr 21

Daily Brief India: Zomato, Swiggy, Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone and more

In today’s briefing:

Zomato/Eternal: Lower Foreign Ownership Limits & The BIG Passive Selling
Swiggy (SWIGGY IN): Post-IPO Global Index Inclusion & Final Lockup Expires In May 2025
Adani Ports: Riding the Global Ports Wave with Scale, Margin, and Visibility

Zomato/Eternal: Lower Foreign Ownership Limits & The BIG Passive Selling

By Brian Freitas

Zomato (ZOMATO IN), now Eternal, listed in July 2021 with a Foreign Ownership Limit (FOL) of 100%. Since listing, foreign ownership has dropped from over 70% to just under 45%.
Eternal is looking to cap foreign ownership at 49.5% to continue qualifying as an Indian-Owned-and-Controlled Company. That will give the company greater operational flexibility, especially for inventory ownership.
The FOL decrease will result in selling from passive global index trackers. With the stock 23.5% off its highs and a steady increase in futures open interest, covering could ensue.

Swiggy (SWIGGY IN): Post-IPO Global Index Inclusion & Final Lockup Expires In May 2025

By Dimitris Ioannidis

The anchor lock-up expired on 13 Feb 2025 and the pre-IPO shareholder lock-up expires on 13 May 2025. The free float is forecasted to increase from ~13% to ~40%.
Swiggy (SWIGGY IN) is expected to be added to global all-world at the June 2025 review following its IPO in November 2024 and the lock-up expiries.
Swiggy (SWIGGY IN) is expected to be added to global standard in May 2025 if top-down approach is used for free float. Otherwise, its addition will take place in August.

Adani Ports: Riding the Global Ports Wave with Scale, Margin, and Visibility

NQXT brings structural leverage: 35 MMT of throughput, 65% EBITDA margin, and zero-debt funding makes this a clean, long-cycle infrastructure asset. Pro forma FY27E EV/EBITDA compresses to 12.6x; P/E 19x.
FY25 guidance upgraded: Revenue now pegged at Rs29,000–31,000 Cr (vs Rs26,000–27,000 Cr earlier), EBITDA at Rs18,800–18,900 Cr, and cargo volume at 460–480 MMT — upper band implies a strong Q4.
Trades at 12.6x FY27E EV/EBITDA, APSEZ offers growth, operating leverage, and global strategic footprint and ramping port utilization. Likely disruptions in trade flows post Trump tariffs is a risk.

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Apr 19

Daily Brief India: Bharti Airtel, Time Technoplast, NIFTY Index, Vinati Organics and more

In today’s briefing:

Still Bearish/Cautious; Stick With Defensives; Emerging Market Opportunities
The Beat Ideas- Time Technoplast: Driving Growth Through Innovation & Value-Added Products
NIFTY 50 Tactical Outlook (Post-Easter Targets)
The Beat Ideas: Vinati Organics- A Niche Giant in Specialty Chemicals

Still Bearish/Cautious; Stick With Defensives; Emerging Market Opportunities

By Joe Jasper

Since late-February (2/25/25 Compass and 2/27/25 Int’l Compass) we had been expecting an 8-10% pullback to provide a buying opportunity.
However, after getting the 10%+ pullback, we discussed in 4/1/25 and 4/3/25 reports how we no longer saw it as a buying opportunity, and we downgraded our outlook to bearish/cautious
While it is possible that the lows are in, we now are looking for the ACWI-US rally to fizzle, either here at $113.50-$115 or the 200-day MA (~$118).

The Beat Ideas- Time Technoplast: Driving Growth Through Innovation & Value-Added Products

Time Technoplast (TIME IN) holds a dominant position in the industrial packaging sector, with leadership in composite cylinders, IBCs, plastic drums, benefiting from a strong global presence& high entry barriers.
TTL is increasingly focusing on higher-margin segments like CNG cylinders, hydrogen storage, and composite products. These initiatives offer significant scalability and margin expansion, setting up strong long-term revenue growth.
With strategic R&D investments, TTL is entering emerging sectors like e-mobility (e-rickshaw batteries) and hydrogen fuel cylinders, tapping into new high-growth markets that could diversify revenue and fuel sustainable growth.

NIFTY 50 Tactical Outlook (Post-Easter Targets)

By Nico Rosti

The strong rebound from the crash low signals resilience in the NIFTY Index, and notably, the index appears to be staging a short-term breakout from its recent downtrend.
Is this the start of a rally? It’s hard to say, given the current economic uncertainty—however, our model suggests the index could extend its gains for another week.
The rally should be limited, a good profit target according to our model is between 24039 and 24496.

The Beat Ideas: Vinati Organics- A Niche Giant in Specialty Chemicals

Vinati Organics (VO IN) dominates the global market with a 65% share in ATBS and IBB, offering strong profitability driven by high-demand sectors like water treatment and pharmaceuticals.
With a INR570 crore capex investment, Vinati is expanding its ATBS capacity by 50%, diversifying into high-growth segments such as MEHQ, Guaiacol, and Antioxidants, positioning itself for long-term revenue growth.
Vinati is strategically increasing its domestic revenue share (45% of FY24 sales), while strengthening its export presence, capitalizing on India’s “Make in India” initiative and reducing currency volatility risks.

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Apr 18

Daily Brief India: Park Medi World and more

In today’s briefing:

Park Medi World Pre-IPO: Some Points Worth Attention

Park Medi World Pre-IPO: Some Points Worth Attention

By Tina Banerjee

Park Medi World is the second largest private hospital chain in North India with a capacity of 3,000 beds, and the largest private hospital chain in Haryana.
The company aims to raise INR9.6B through issuing fresh shares. Founder and Chairman, Dr. Ajit Gupta is the selling shareholder offering shares worth of INR3B for sale.
IPO proceeds will be utilized for debt repayment, funding capex for development of new hospital, expansion of existing hospital, and purchase of medical equipment.

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Apr 17

Daily Brief India: Gensol Engineering, SAMHI Hotels , Sandur Manganese & Iron Ore and more

In today’s briefing:

Gensol Engineering Forensic Analysis: Insights from SEBI’s Investigation
The Beat Ideas: Samhi Hotels, A Strategic Play on India’s Premium Hotels
SMIORE: Transitioning from Merchant Miner to Integrated Steel & Minerals Powerhouse

Gensol Engineering Forensic Analysis: Insights from SEBI’s Investigation

SEBI has launched a forensic investigation into Gensol Engineering Ltd. (GEL), highlighting grave concerns around corporate governance, fund misuse, and misleading disclosures
What began as a story of meteoric financial growth has now unfolded into a cautionary tale of alleged fund diversion, shady preferential allotments, and sharp promoter decline.
This research note delves into the key issues identified by SEBI, the financial patterns that triggered scrutiny, and the implications for stakeholders.

The Beat Ideas: Samhi Hotels, A Strategic Play on India’s Premium Hotels

SAMHI Hotels (SAMHI IN) witnessing a 9-10% top-line growth attributed to same-store Average Room Rate (ARR) growth and robust occupancy trend across all the segments.
Company is set to generate a top line of INR 3.2-3.5bn pa post stabilization in 2 years with an increase of 532 keys across three hotels.
Company is expecting 35% revenue growth in next 3-4 years by repositioning the ACIC portfolio under the Marriott Tribute & Courtyard brands and opening new hotels like W& Westin Tribute.

SMIORE: Transitioning from Merchant Miner to Integrated Steel & Minerals Powerhouse

Scale-Up in Mining: Iron ore capacity ramped up to 3.86 MTPA with visibility to reach 4.36 MTPA, positioning mining as a high-margin cash engine.
Forward Integration via Arjas Acquisition: Strategic acquisition of Arjas Steel marks a shift from merchant mining to integrated steel production, with embedded OEM relationships and SBQ focus.
Valuation Reset in Progress: Despite structural upgrades, the stock trades at ~8x EV/EBITDA, offering a rerating opportunity as steel margins expand and loss-making verticals normalise.

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Apr 16

Daily Brief India: LG Electronics India, HDFC Bank, Moil Ltd and more

In today’s briefing:

LG Electronics India IPO: The Bear Case
Time to Sell HDFC Bank? Stock Nears Record High and Slightly Overbought
MOIL Ltd: Plans to Double Output Well Supported

LG Electronics India IPO: The Bear Case

By Arun George

LG Electronics India (123D IN)/LGEIL, a subsidiary of LG Electronics (066570 KS), aims to raise up to US$1.5 billion through a secondary offering (15% of outstanding shares).
In LG Electronics India IPO: The Bull Case, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.
The bear case rests on bottom-quartile revenue growth, revenue decline in the largest product category, dividends to the parent far exceeding FCF and significant share overhang.

Time to Sell HDFC Bank? Stock Nears Record High and Slightly Overbought

By Nico Rosti

HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) is one of those few stocks that were nearly unaffected by the recent market turmoil (-5.7% pullback, peak to bottom and now at new highs).
Our insight in January 14th 2025 signaled a strong buy opportunity, the stock rallied +13% from there.
Now the stock has reached its previous all time highs, and may become overbought. Long-term outlook remains positive, but a short-term pullback is possible in the next 2 weeks.

MOIL Ltd: Plans to Double Output Well Supported

MOIL is India’s largest manganese ore producer, contributing over 50% of the country’s production. Its dominant position provides a competitive advantage in meeting domestic demand.
Planned a capex of Rs24 billion until FY30. This investment will support brownfield expansions, greenfield projects, and modernization efforts, including shaft-sinking projects at Balaghat and Gumgaon mines.
Valuations: Trades at a marginal premium to historic valuations. Debt-free balance sheet, 25yr+ mine life gives confidence over LT execution of expansion plans.

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Apr 15

Daily Brief India: Grasim Industries, NIFTY Index, Steel Authority of India, Tata Consultancy Svcs and more

In today’s briefing:

Birla Opus | Short Term Gain, Long Term Pain
Nifty Index Options Weekly (Apr 07 – 11): Volatility Spikes, Skew Steepens, Hedges Reassessed
Steel Authority of India: Weak on Expansion
#3 Leadership Bytes(11-Apr-25)

Birla Opus | Short Term Gain, Long Term Pain

By Pranav Bhavsar

We interact with our dealer network representing Asian Paints (APNT IN) and Birla Opus Grasim Industries (GRASIM IN) dealers with an objective to understand the current operating environment.
Aggression in a slow-moving market will result in short-term market share gains for players like Birla Opus.
While Asian Paints (APNT IN) may appear to lose market share, we believe this would be transient in nature.

Nifty Index Options Weekly (Apr 07 – 11): Volatility Spikes, Skew Steepens, Hedges Reassessed

By John Ley

Implied vol spiked sharply on Monday, marking one of the largest single-day moves since the pandemic.
We discuss the move in skew and suggest a course of action for previously recommended hedges.
The magnitude of the implied vol move is examined in the context of recent price behavior—and whether it holds.

Steel Authority of India: Weak on Expansion

SAIL has been a consistent under-performer despite having huge iron ore reserves, multi-location steel plants and wide product spectrum and exclusive sales to Indian Railways
Legacy plants, ageing manpower and operational inefficiencies have resulted in slower growth compared to peers and a significant loss in overall market share, high inventories and single digit RoEs
SAIL trades at 0.8x P/B, in line with history, but weak volume visibility and elevated debt warrant a deeper discount—0.6x book better reflects risk-reward, in our view.

#3 Leadership Bytes(11-Apr-25)

Tata Consultancy Svcs (TCS IN) , Aurionpro Solutions (AUPS IN) , Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders (MAZDOCKS IN) have shared major updates across demand outlook, sector focus, expansion plans, and strategic pivots.
Each company is aligning efforts to navigate macro uncertainties, tap digital or sectoral growth, and optimize capital allocation.
From TCS’s cautious outlook and margin levers to Apollo’s digital push and Indigo’s hospitality play, these moves reflect a broad spectrum of strategies among market leaders.

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Apr 14

Daily Brief India: NIFTY Index and more