India

In today’s briefing:

Hindware Home Innovation Ltd: Will Restructuring Change the Company’s Fortunes?
India Air Conditioners | Who’s Chilling How
Event Driven: ITC Acquiring Aditya Birla Group’s Paper Business
Vodafone Idea: Another Lifeline, But Structural Challenges Persist
Hindalco (HNDL IN): Investor Day Reaffirms Strategic Growth Plans

Hindware Home Innovation Ltd: Will Restructuring Change the Company’s Fortunes?

Hindware Home Innovation (HINDWARE IN) plans to demerge its consumer appliances division into a separate listed entity.
Demerger removes loss-making drag, improving profitability and segment-specific valuation clarity.
Unlocks hidden value; better execution with new CEO with clear growth trajectory may lead further value creation for shareholders.

India Air Conditioners | Who’s Chilling How

By Pranav Bhavsar

In this Insight, we aim to understand the current demand, environment, competition, and margin trends for major air conditioner manufacturers in India.
Dealers remain optimistic despite a slower seasonal start, anticipating accelerated growth in this season. While there have been price increases, competition, and cost inflation may not translate into margins.
Some of the companies in Focus include Voltas Ltd (VOLT IN), Havells India (HAVL IN), Johnson Controls-Hitachi Air Conditioning India (JCHAC IN).

Event Driven: ITC Acquiring Aditya Birla Group’s Paper Business

ITC Ltd (ITC IN) recently announced the strategic acquisition of Century Pulp and Paper (CPP) from AB Real Estate (ABREL) for INR 3,500 crore on a slump sale basis.
This Business Transfer Agreement (BTA) occurs amid an industry downturn marked by surging input costs, subdued demand, and competition from low-priced imports.
This acquisition significantly expands ITC’s paper segment capacity by 60%, targeting a 30-40% EBITDA per tonne improvement.

Vodafone Idea: Another Lifeline, But Structural Challenges Persist

GoI converts ₹36,950 crore of spectrum dues into equity, increasing its stake to ~49%. Promoters’ stake diluted to ~25.5%, with public shareholders now owning just ~23.8%.
While the move eases cash outflows till H1FY28, Vodafone Idea’s AGR dues, weak subscriber base, and funding needs remain material headwinds.
Structural concerns remain unresolved, and further dilution risks persist along with loosing market share.

Hindalco (HNDL IN): Investor Day Reaffirms Strategic Growth Plans

By Rahul Jain

Hindalco provided details of its ongoing expansion plans of about US$9.1b (US$1.7b spent).
We note near-term headwinds from a) likely weakness in aluminium prices driven by cheaper alumina b) scrap market tightness c) sharp contraction in copper Tc/Rc’s
Valuations: Hindalco trades at about 6.8x EV/EBITDA FY26e which is inline with historic multiples. A lower multiple is warranted to factor impending headwinds.

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Apr 01

Daily Brief India: NIFTY Index and more

In today’s briefing:

NSE NIFTY50/ Vol Update / SEBI Intervenes Stalling Expiry Day Shift. IVs Pushed to 1Yr Lows.

NSE NIFTY50/ Vol Update / SEBI Intervenes Stalling Expiry Day Shift. IVs Pushed to 1Yr Lows.

By Sankalp Singh

SEBI intervenes on constantly changing Option contract specifications. NSE halts expiry day shift indefinitely & awaits clarity from regulator.
IVs slid lower to 11% levels – extended weekend being a primary factor. Risk premia is nearing historically low extremes. “Low & Down” state persists for the Vol-Regime model.
Tactical Implications: (1) Scale back Vol harvesting structures as “Low & Down” Vol-state persists. (2) Reverse Calendars for long gamma exposure to upcoming events. Utilize Low IVs & curve Contango.

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Mar 31

Daily Brief India: Edelweiss Financial Services, NIFTY Index, Nuvama Wealth Management, Nesco Ltd, Rajshree Polypack, HealthCare Global Enterprises, RPSG Ventures Limited, Tata Steel Ltd and more

In today’s briefing:

Edelweiss: Growing Well and Unlocking Value
Nifty Index Options Weekly (Mar 24 – 28): Sticky Implied Vol and a Tactical Hedge Ahead of Tariffs
Nuvama: Yet Another Strong Quarter
Nesco: Strong Q3FY25
RPPL: Weak Q3FY25, However Medium-Term Outlook Is Strong
HCG: Strong Q3FY25 and Promoter Change Update
RPSG Ventures: FMCG Business Is Scaling Up Well | BPO Business Is Growing Now
Tata Steel (TATA IN): Scaling Up Domestic Operations, Easing EU Drag

Edelweiss: Growing Well and Unlocking Value

Edelweiss reported a decent Q3FY25 with ex-Insurance PAT of INR 185cr, a growth of 16% YoY excluding NBFC PAT. Growth was led by Asset Management and Insurance businesses.
Within the Credit business, the Home Finance business which operates under the brand Nido is scaling up well. It disbursed INR 400cr+ worth of retail loans during Q3FY25.
Edelweiss is focusing on unlocking value and has already filed DRHP for its Alternative Asset Management business. Once approved, it will proceed for an IPO with OFS of INR 1500cr.

Nifty Index Options Weekly (Mar 24 – 28): Sticky Implied Vol and a Tactical Hedge Ahead of Tariffs

By John Ley

Weekly recap of volatility and price metrics, covering option volumes, volatility trends, the spot/implied relationship, and open interest.
Implied vol remained stable, and we discuss why it may be sticky at current levels.
With global weakness and the upcoming April 2 reciprocal tariffs announcement, we reiterate a tactical hedge.

Nuvama: Yet Another Strong Quarter

Nuvama continues to post strong earnings. Its Q3FY25 revenues grew 30% YoY to INR 723cr. Q3FY25 PAT grew 43% YoY to INR 252cr.
Q3FY25 performance was surprisingly led by the Asset Services segment where revenue grew 77% YoY with addition of new clients and positive asset flow, leading to market share gain.
Together the Wealth and Asset Management segments performed steady with revenue growth of 18% YoY. Net flows in 9MFY25 in ARR and MPIS assets exceeded that for whole of FY24.

Nesco: Strong Q3FY25

Nesco reported a strong Q3FY25 with 16% YoY revenue growth and 17% YoY PAT growth. The exhibitions (BEC) segment grew 13% YoY and the IT Parks segment grew 16% YoY.
Nesco Foods segment reported 29% YoY growth in revenues led by improved BEC footfalls and scaling up of the Food Court and Restaurants business.
Recently, Nesco also received IOD from the municipal corporation of Mumbai, thus paving way for receiving future approvals for Tower 2. Tower 2 construction is expected to commence in Q3FY26.

RPPL: Weak Q3FY25, However Medium-Term Outlook Is Strong

Earlier this month, RPPL announced a new factory to expand its thermoforming and extrusion capacity by 1250 MTPA and 1600 MTPA, respectively. This will come on-stream within a month.
RPPL reported a weak Q3FY25 due to adverse fluctuation in raw material prices as well as seasonal impact. Q3 tends to be a weak quarter seasonally.
RPPL’s capacity expansion has been leading to upfront expenses. The new Olive Ecopak JV also reported losses, share of which was INR -2.6cr in Q3FY25.

HCG: Strong Q3FY25 and Promoter Change Update

HealthCare Global Enterprises (“HCG”) reported a strong Q3FY25 despite Q3 being a seasonally weak quarter. Revenue growth was strong across both the established centers and the emerging centers.
Revenue from established centers grew 20% YoY while that from emerging centers grew 25% YoY in Q3FY25. Within emerging centers, Kolkata led the growth with 40% YoY rise in revenues.
HCG saw promoter change in Feb 2025. KKR announced acquisition of 54% stake from CVC who owns around 60%+. Dr. BS Ajaikumar, the founder promoter, will continue to own 10%+.

RPSG Ventures: FMCG Business Is Scaling Up Well | BPO Business Is Growing Now

With INR 145cr revenue in the FMCG business in Q3FY25, RPSGV has sustained its INR 550cr+ annualized revenue run-rate from the last quarter, which implies it is scaling up well.
The BPO business (“Firstsource”) has normalized after seeing tough times a few quarters ago. Q3FY25 revenue grew 30%+ YoY and 10%+ QoQ. EBIT margin has been steady at 11% QoQ.
Within the Sports business, the IPL franchise, Lucknow Super Giants, announced a new captain, Rishabh Pant, under whose leadership there is likely to be more aggression towards result orientation.

Tata Steel (TATA IN): Scaling Up Domestic Operations, Easing EU Drag

By Rahul Jain

Tata Steel’s India business is poised for multi-year volume expansion, backed by ample land availability across three key locations.
Losses from UK and Netherland operations set to ease. UK operations are under transitioning phase from BF to EAF. Discussions are on with the Netherlands govt.
Valuations: Tata Steel trades at 6.5x EV/EBITDA based on estimated FY26 EBITDA. Stock has outperformed local indices and could likely continue.

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Mar 29

Daily Brief India: NIFTY Index, Ashok Leyland, Bombay Stock Exchange, Innova Captab, Kolte Patil Developers and more

In today’s briefing:

NIFTY Outlook: Possible Breakout as Options Expiry Moves to Monday
Ashok Leyland Restructuring: Switch UK Winds Down & Switch India’s Strategic Pivot
How SEBI’s Expiry Date Proposal Could Halt BSE’s Market Share Erosion?
Innova Captab’s Jammu Expansion Update
Kolte Patil: Q3FY25 Performance and Promoter Change Update

NIFTY Outlook: Possible Breakout as Options Expiry Moves to Monday

By Nico Rosti

The NIFTY Index had rallied quite hard the week before last week, then stalled last week, however its looks like maybe is changing in its trend structure, maybe a breakout…
However the breakout may have to wait a bit more, as the NIFTY is overbought WEEKLY according to our model: before the uptrend resumes, there will be a pullback.
Last: as written by AceGama Advisors the WEEKLY options expiry will be moved from Thursday to Monday, starting in April 2025, impacting the market. Read their insight for detailed analysis.

Ashok Leyland Restructuring: Switch UK Winds Down & Switch India’s Strategic Pivot

Ashok Leyland (AL IN) plans to shut manufacturing at its UK EV subsidiary, Switch Mobility UK, and shift focus to India and UAE plants.
The UK exit curbs cash burn and earnings drag, while Switch India, driven by rising demand, nears breakeven with 1800+ e-Bus orders and 80%+ e-LCV share.
This marks a value-accretive pivot, realigning capital to India’s high-growth EV market and improving group-level profitability and return metrics.

How SEBI’s Expiry Date Proposal Could Halt BSE’s Market Share Erosion?

SEBI’s March 27 proposal suggests standardising expiry dates: Thursdays for Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE IN) and Tuesdays for National Stock Exchange (NSEIN IN) .
NSE’s previous strategic expiry days aimed at better liquidity, marginalising BSE’s Tuesday expiry, potentially impacting it’s trading volumes.
Post-Consultation was released, NSE faces a setback, deferring its planned monday expiry shift for Nifty contracts, indirectly protecting BSE from market share erosion.

Innova Captab’s Jammu Expansion Update

Innova Captab (1605221D IN) has commissioned a new 11-acre manufacturing facility in Jammu, with capacity for 10.7 bn tablets and 562 mn LVP/respules.
The plant adds new dosage forms and therapy areas (Penicillin, Penum) and enables strategic domestic-export capacity balancing, with potential ROIC >20%.
This is not just a capacity bump, it positions Innova for premium exports, higher utilization, and long-term revenue scale-up to INR 14–16Bn from Jammu alone.

Kolte Patil: Q3FY25 Performance and Promoter Change Update

Kolte Patil’s Q3FY25 performance update’s key highlight was acquisition of a 22 acre joint development project with topline potential worth INR 4000cr representing saleable area of 5 Million Square Feet.
Q3FY25 pre-sales was not as robust as approval of new projects got delayed in Mumbai due to elections. However, Kolte Patil has guided to cover this up in early FY26.
Even with the delay, Kolte Patil is projecting to close FY25 pre-sales at INR 3000cr+ (vs INR 3500cr guided), which implies that Q4FY25 pre-sales could be INR 850cr+.

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Mar 28

Daily Brief India: Transformers & Rectifiers (India) Ltd, Punjab National Bank and more

In today’s briefing:

Transformers & Rectifiers (India) Ltd- Ambitious Targets
Indian Banks Screener: Adding Punjab National Bank (NSEI:PNB) To the Buy List

Transformers & Rectifiers (India) Ltd- Ambitious Targets

By Nitin Mangal

Transformers & Rectifiers (India) Ltd (TRIL IN) is a prominent player in the manufacturing of transformers and reactors with the largest private sector facility in India producting diverse product range
With three transformer manufacturing facilities, the company has embarked on a capex spree, with planned additions of ~30,000-35,000 MVA.
Taking about forensics, the company has faced concerns with regarding liquidity, issuance of a stop-deal notice and stop payment by a major customer, write offs, etc.

Indian Banks Screener: Adding Punjab National Bank (NSEI:PNB) To the Buy List

By Victor Galliano

We recommend three smaller cap Indian banks, namely Baroda, Bandhan adding Punjab National Bank (PNB); we remove Union Bank of India from the buy list, PNB is more compelling
Bandhan and Baroda are attractive for their value attributes relative to their returns, with newly added PNB delivering better returns and it continues to improve credit quality
Richly valued Kotak Mahindra has the group’s highest returns post credit costs, but returns continue to trend downwards; we upgrade premium-valued ICICI to neutral as it delivers further improved returns

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Mar 27

Daily Brief India: Indian Hotels, SGX Rubber Future TSR20, Nestle India, Apl Apollo Tubes, Veeda Clinical Research Ltd and more

In today’s briefing:

NIFTY Indices: Flows (Post Capping) At the Close Today; Round-Trip US$2.6bn
UK Breaks Ground On First Tire To Fuel Facility Amid ELT Export Row
Quiddity Leaderboard BSE/SENSEX Jun25: Some Names Are Still Close to the Border
APL Apollo Tubes (APAT IN) Stepping up the Gas on Capacity Expansions
Veeda Clinical Research Pre-IPO – Positioned for Growth Amid Financial Risks

NIFTY Indices: Flows (Post Capping) At the Close Today; Round-Trip US$2.6bn

By Brian Freitas

The NIFTY Index, Nifty Next 50 Index, Nifty Bank Index, Nifty IT Index, Nifty Midcap 150 Index, Nifty100 Low Volatility30 Index and the CPSE ETF rebalance at the close today.
The round-trip trade across the indices is US$2.6bn and there are 26 stocks with over 1 day of ADV to trade from passive trackers.
Stocks with the largest impact are Britannia Industries, Bharat Petroleum, Adani Total Gas, Indian Hotels, Jio Financial, IRCTC, Zomato, Federal Bank, Union Bank Of India and Crompton Greaves.

UK Breaks Ground On First Tire To Fuel Facility Amid ELT Export Row

By Vinod Nedumudy

US$127 million tire recycling plant coming up in Sunderland
TRA calls for immediate action to end the T8 exemption
ATMA’s stress to rein in ELT imports comes as wakeup call for UK

Quiddity Leaderboard BSE/SENSEX Jun25: Some Names Are Still Close to the Border

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

In this insight, we take a look at the Potential ADDs/DELs for the BSE SENSEX, BSE 100, and BSE 200 Indices in the June 2025 index rebal event.
As things stand, there could be two index changes for the SENSEX index.
There could be two ADDs/DELs for the BSE 100 index and eight ADDs/DELs for the BSE 200 index.

APL Apollo Tubes (APAT IN) Stepping up the Gas on Capacity Expansions

By Rahul Jain

APL Apollo has raised its capex guidance to accelerate growth in high-margin, value-added products (VAP) and new segments like heavy structural tubes, pre-engineered buildings, and solar structures.
Margins have recovered from Q2 lows but remain subdued due to weak steel prices. Sales volumes have grown at an 18% CAGR.
Trading at 65x TTM P/E vs. a 5-year average of 50x. A strong execution track record and RoCE >25% provide confidence in growth execution.

Veeda Clinical Research Pre-IPO – Positioned for Growth Amid Financial Risks

By Rosita Fernandes

Veeda Clinical Research Ltd (3340714Z IN) (VCRL) is planning to raise about US$115m in its upcoming India IPO.
VCRL is a global contract research organization offering comprehensive drug development services, including non-clinical, pre-clinical, clinical trials, and studies across diverse drug types like generics, biosimilars, and medical devices.
The company operates in key global markets, including North America, Europe, and Asia, with a presence in India.

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Mar 26

Daily Brief India: SKF India Ltd, Tata Motors Ltd, InterGlobe Aviation Ltd, Zoomcar Holdings and more

In today’s briefing:

Event Driven- SKF India Demerger: The Automotive & Industrial Split
Tata Motors: Is the Worst Finally Over? A Turnaround & Demerger Play
The Beat Ideas: InterGlobe Aviation- Growth Via Fleet Expansion and International Ambitions
Zoomcar Holdings – Vastly Improved Customer Experience…

Event Driven- SKF India Demerger: The Automotive & Industrial Split

SKF India Ltd (SKF IN) has announced the demerger of its industrial business, which will be listed separately for enhanced focus and operational efficiency in both segments.
The company’s automotive business has high volume but low margins, whereas the industrial segment offers higher margins, highlighting a significant contrast in profitability between the two business segments.
The automotive business would attract investors seeking long-term, steady growth, while the industrial segment would appeal to investors focused on higher margins and more lucrative returns.

Tata Motors: Is the Worst Finally Over? A Turnaround & Demerger Play

The Chinese slowdown and JLR’s ICE phase-out pressure near-term margins, but Indian PV growth and EV leadership offer a strong domestic counterbalance.
Tata Motors is demerging its Commercial Vehicle and Finance arms to sharpen focus and unlock value across its core Passenger Vehicle and JLR businesses.
Tata Motors is transitioning from a cyclical turnaround story to a long-term structural play on India’s mobility and global EV transformation.

The Beat Ideas: InterGlobe Aviation- Growth Via Fleet Expansion and International Ambitions

InterGlobe Aviation Ltd (INDIGO IN) placed a record aircraft order and announced plans to double its size by 2030, including entry into long-haul international routes via Airbus A350s.
This signals a shift from being a low-cost, short-haul leader to a global aviation player aiming for 40% international capacity by FY30.
IndiGo is no longer just a domestic LCC story: its scale, global ambitions, and diversification make it a long-term structural compounder in aviation.

Zoomcar Holdings – Vastly Improved Customer Experience…

By Zacks Small Cap Research

Peer-to-peer (P2P) car sharing is a new and growing industry that competes with traditional car rental companies.
Rather than renting access to a company-owned fleet (B2C), car sharing allows owners of cars to rent their own vehicles directly to consumers through a platform (P2P) and charges a fee for the services.
The industry looks to emulate other successful shared economy businesses such as Airbnb, etc., which are platforms for property owners to rent real estate directly to consumers.

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Mar 25

Daily Brief India: LG Electronics India, Borosil Renewables, Adani Enterprises, NIFTY Index, Bajaj Finance Ltd, SGX Rubber Future TSR20 and more

In today’s briefing:

LG Electronics India IPO: It’s A Big Deal. Potential Pricing and Valuation Preview
Insiders’ Playbook: Who’s Buying and Selling Amid Market Turbulence?
What Does Adani’s Foray into Wires & Cables Mean for Investors and the Industry?
NSE NIFTY50/ Vol Update / Expiry Day Shifted to Mondays – Expect Major Changes in Vol Dynamics
Bajaj Finance: The Overhang Clears as Rajeev Jain Steps Up as Vice Chairman
Indian Rubber Prices Soar As Rubber Board Prepares For EUDR

LG Electronics India IPO: It’s A Big Deal. Potential Pricing and Valuation Preview

By Devi Subhakesan

LG Electronics India has secured regulatory approval for its IPO, expected to raise between USD 1 to 1.5 billion.
However, it remains unclear whether the company will delay the launch until market sentiment shows further improvement.
LG Electronics India (123D IN) IPO is a 100% offer for sale by parent and hence the entire proceeds from the IPO will accrue to LG Electronics (066570 KS).

Insiders’ Playbook: Who’s Buying and Selling Amid Market Turbulence?

The start of 2025 has been particularly turbulent for Indian equities as broader market sentiment soured due to elevated valuations, foreign institutional investor (FII) outflows, and global macro uncertainty.
However, amid this volatility, one signal stood out: insider trading activity.
In this report, we deep-dive into insider buying and selling trends from January 1 to March 3, 2025, to uncover where company promoters and top executives are placing their bets

What Does Adani’s Foray into Wires & Cables Mean for Investors and the Industry?

Investors should keep a close eye on Adani’s execution timeline, the impact on valuations in the sector, and the fundamentals of existing players in the C&W industry.
While Adani’s entry may bring some disruption, the sector’s strong growth prospects and the resilience of leading players suggest that there is still value to be found.
In the end, long-term success in this industry will depend on a combination of strategic vision, operational excellence, and the ability to adapt to changing market dynamics.

NSE NIFTY50/ Vol Update / Expiry Day Shifted to Mondays – Expect Major Changes in Vol Dynamics

By Sankalp Singh

Effective 05.04.2025, Expiry for Options will be moved from Thursday to Monday. Premiums still adjusting to retroactive implementation of the technical change.
Option markets shun additional risk premia on account of U.S. trade tensions – IVs remain subdued. Vol-state transitioned to “Low & Down” & term-structure pushed further into Contango.
IVs were higher on the weekly open, but premiums decayed rapidly post U.S. Fed event risk. Skew has unwound its earlier compression.

Bajaj Finance: The Overhang Clears as Rajeev Jain Steps Up as Vice Chairman

Rajeev Jain elevated to Vice Chairman and Executive Director; Anup Saha to take over as MD from April 2025, ensuring continuity at India’s top consumer finance company.
Jain’s continued executive role removes leadership overhang, reinforcing confidence in Bajaj Finance’s Long-Range Strategy 2029 amid rising competitive intensity in digital lending.
Succession clarity and strategic alignment suggest Bajaj Finance is not just preserving momentum—but doubling down on execution for its next phase of scale and innovation.

Indian Rubber Prices Soar As Rubber Board Prepares For EUDR

By Vinod Nedumudy

Prices crosses the magical level of INR 200/kg after five months
Supply short but farmers who stock and didn’t rainguard benefit
Rubber Board starts geo-mapping of rubber plantations

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Mar 24

Daily Brief India: NIFTY Index and more

In today’s briefing:

Market Movers: Key Dates at a Glance (March 24-30)
Nifty Index Options Weekly (Mar 17 – 21): A Familiar Rally Pattern—We Outline a Hedge

Market Movers: Key Dates at a Glance (March 24-30)

By Gaudenz Schneider

India: Index changes for Nifty indices will take place. Multiple option expiries are scheduled, impacting stocks and indices such as the NIFTY 50 Index, and the SENSEX Index.
Asia-Pacific: Key events include Hong Kong’s earnings week and Tokyo CPI release, while Australia reports its Monthly CPI indicator.
USA: Significant releases include the final Q4 2024 GDP figures and the PCE Price Index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge.

Nifty Index Options Weekly (Mar 17 – 21): A Familiar Rally Pattern—We Outline a Hedge

By John Ley

Weekly recap of volatility and price metrics, covering option volumes, volatility trends, the spot/implied relationship, and open interest.
Nifty posts its largest weekly gain in nine months however, the rally resembles past counter-trend moves since the September 2024 peak.
We outline a tactical hedge that aligns with recent price action, volatility shifts, and heightened global political risks

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Mar 23

Daily Brief India: LIC Housing Finance and more

In today’s briefing:

LICHF: Benign Credit Cost Led to Strong Q3FY25

LICHF: Benign Credit Cost Led to Strong Q3FY25