India

• Lenskart Solutions is looking to raise about US$1bn in its upcoming India IPO.
• Lenskart Solutions Limited (LSL) is a technology-driven eyewear company with integrated operations spanning designing, manufacturing, branding and retailing of eyewear products.
• In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.

• Federal Bank delivered record net interest income (NII) and fee income in Q2 FY26, while net profit fell ~9½ % YoY. 
• Core earnings momentum is intact—CASA growth, margin uptick, asset quality improving—but elevated provisions and subdued credit growth raise questions on earnings durability.
• He bank is executing on key levers, but investors need clarity on the earnings runway and capital/deposit growth ahead—read on for the deeper dive.

• Molbio Diagnostics Limited (1788863D IN) is looking to raise US$229m in its upcoming India IPO.
• Molbio Diagnostics is a healthcare technology company specializing in point-of-care molecular diagnostics. Its flagship product, Truenat, is a portable, battery-operated PCR testing system used for the rapid detection of infection.
• In this note, we look at the company’s past performance.

• Chemcon holds a dominant market position in its niche specialty chemical products, being the sole manufacturer of HMDS and the largest manufacturer of CMIC in India. This provides a significant competitive advantage.
• The company is demonstrating a strong financial recovery, with improving margins and a significant turnaround in operating and free cash flow in the latest fiscal year, following a period of decline. This is supported by high resilience and market momentum scores.
• Despite recent recovery, Chemcon faces challenges from a poor long-term growth track record, with negative 3-year compound annual growth rates in revenue, net income, and EPS. The suspension of dividends for the past two years also signals underlying business pressure.

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• Lenskart Solutions is looking to raise about US$1bn in its upcoming India IPO.
• Lenskart Solutions Limited (LSL) is a technology-driven eyewear company with integrated operations spanning designing, manufacturing, branding and retailing of eyewear products.
• In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal.

• Despite good earnings results, HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) does not seem to be going anywhere. The stock did rally for the past 3 weeks but after the earnings stayed flat.
• Our quantitative probabilistic model indicates HDFC Bank usually does not rally for more than 4 weeks when this pattern is encountered (we are in the 4th week, this week). 
• From a price perspective, our model shows a mildly overbought stock, confirming the slow pace. The pullback should be short-lived (1-2 weeks), but it’s imminent.

• CleanMax Enviro Energy Solutions Ltd (8382406Z IN) (CEESL) is looking to raise about US$586m in its upcoming India IPO.
• CEESL is a provider of commercial and industrial renewable energy, specializing in delivering decarbonization solutions, including supplying renewable power and offering energy services and carbon credit solutions to customers.
• In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.

• Dominant Market Leader with Unmatched Reach: State Bank of India (SBI) is the largest public sector bank in India, commanding a significant market share of approximately 22.55% in deposits and 19.06% in advances as of March 2024. Its extensive network of over 22,000 branches and more than 65,000 ATMs provides an unparalleled physical presence, particularly in rural and semi-urban areas, forming a key competitive advantage.
• Strong Financial Performance and Growth Trajectory: The bank has demonstrated robust financial performance, with a significant increase in net profit and consistent revenue growth over the past three years. This is driven by healthy credit expansion, particularly in the retail and corporate segments, and improving asset quality with declining non-performing assets (NPAs).
• Digital Transformation Driving Future Growth: SBI is heavily invested in digital transformation, with its YONO (You Only Need One) platform being a cornerstone of its strategy. YONO has over 87 million registered users and is a significant contributor to savings account openings and retail loan origination, positioning the bank to cater to a growing tech-savvy customer base and enhance operational efficiency.

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• Laser Power & Infra Limited (1635018D IN) is looking to raise about US$135m in its upcoming India IPO. The deal will be run by ICICI Securities and IIFL.
• Laser Power & Infra Limited (LPIL) is an integrated manufacturer and EPC (Engineering, Procurement, and Construction) solutions provider for the power transmission and distribution industry in India.
• The company operates two primary business segments: Manufacturing and EPC, which together form a vertically integrated model.

• CleanMax Enviro Energy Solutions Ltd (8382406Z IN) (CEESL) is looking to raise US$586m in its upcoming India IPO.
• CEESL is a provider of commercial and industrial renewable energy, specializing in delivering decarbonization solutions, including supplying renewable power and offering energy services and carbon credit solutions to customers.
• In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal.

• Context: The ICICI Prudential Life (IPRU IN) vs. ICICI Lombard General Insurance (ICICIGI IN) price-ratio has deviated two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.
• Highlights: Going long ICICI Prudential Life (IPRU IN) and short ICICI Lombard General Insurance (ICICIGI IN) targets a 5% return.
• Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.

• Sammaan Capital approved a 3-part preferential issue to Avenir, part of Abu Dhabi’s sovereign-controlled IHC, aggregating INR 8,850 crore (USD 1.06 billion) in equity and warrants (convertible in 18 months)
• Sammaan has been looking out for an equity partner for few quarters now. Avenir’s backing not just improves capital positioning but also helps restructure overall liability side of the business
• Upon consummation (80% probability), we anticipate material re-rating potential. However, there are multiple risks in the near term, including accelerated write-offs. Further, an ongoing litigation may jeopardize the deal itself.

• Canara HSBC Life Insurance (CHLI) (2908709Z IJ) raised about US$284m from its India IPO.
• CHLI is an Indian private life insurer, promoted by Canara Bank and HSBC Insurance (Asia-Pacific) Holdings, offering a range of life insurance products tailored for both individual and group customers.
• In this note, we will talk about the trading dynamics.

• Runwal Developers (1639241D IN) is looking to raise about US$225m in its upcoming India IPO. The deal will be run by ICICI Securities, BOBCap, IIFL, JM Financial.
• Runwal Developers is a real estate development company based in India. It is primarily engaged in lifestyle-oriented projects with a diversified portfolio across multiple segments.
• Its core business lies in real estate development, encompassing the development of land, sale of land, and Transferable Development Rights (TDRs), along with the construction and operation of residential townships.

• We focus on the five Indian public sector banks under our coverage in this report, and we identify growing credit and political risks for this group, including Bank of Baroda
• Political risk, in the form of a potential new round of public sector bank consolidation, could cut shareholder returns in the larger public sector banks absorbing the smaller banks
• Bank of Baroda is prominent – and well capitalised – amongst the larger public sector banks; we downgrade it to a neutral from a buy, locking in profits

• Tech Mahindra delivered sequential revenue growth and a 100-bps margin expansion in Q2FY26, supported by Project Fortius, stronger deal wins, and early traction in AI initiatives.
• Execution discipline, selective client focus, and rising AI investments indicate structural improvement in profitability and positioning, even as telecom softness and European weakness persist.
• The turnaround is taking hold gradually. With a stronger operating base, Tech Mahindra is better placed for steady growth and sustainable margin expansion heading into FY27.

• Whirlpool India renewed its Brand and Technology License Agreements with its US parent, granting exclusive brand and tech rights in India and neighboring countries until 2054.
• The revised agreements clarify long-term royalty, technical fee, and service markups, which together represent recurring outflows that materially impact earnings quality.
• While Whirlpool India secures continuity and exclusive IP access, its profit pool remains structurally capped by parent-level economics, making earnings trajectory highly sensitive to royalty and transfer pricing governance.

• Growth: EBITDA mix improves as aluminium integration + captive coal lift margins, silver ramps, and zinc stays cash generative; deleveraging begins FY27 as cash flows strengthen.
• Commodity Play: Positive leverage to aluminium, zinc, and silver prices; cost base falling, not rising — rare margin tailwind in a metals cycle.
• Valuation + Yield: Trades cheap vs peers; rerating optionality + double-digit dividend yield provides downside protection with asymmetric upside.

• Canara Robeco AMC has raised US$150m in its India IPO.
• Canara Robeco has demonstrated strong growth registering a CAGR of 34% and 33% in AUM and management fees, respectively, from FY22 to FY24. 
• We have looked at the company’s past performance and valuations in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about the trading dynamics.

• Sunshield Chemicals is expanding its capacity to capitalise on its unique position as the sole Indian manufacturer of key niche chemicals like THEIC and a rare global producer of HQEE.
• The capex and product focus underscore a strategic shift towards higher-margin, low-competition specialty segments, which is vital for sustained earnings growth and margin protection against raw material volatility.
• A look at the company’s product portfolio and execution on capacity expansion reveals a potentially de-risked growth trajectory, meriting attention from investors seeking exposure to high-entry-barrier specialty chemical plays.

• BLS International Services is a leading global provider of visa, passport, and consular services, with a growing presence in digital and e-governance solutions. The company’s asset-light business model and long-term government contracts provide a strong foundation for revenue visibility and profitability.
• The company is strategically expanding its global footprint through both organic and inorganic growth, recently securing new contracts and making acquisitions to enter new markets and service lines. This diversification helps mitigate risks associated with reliance on a limited number of government clients.
• While the company has a strong growth track record and a healthy financial position, it faces risks related to contract renewals, changes in government regulations, and increased competition. A recent debarment from future tenders by India’s Ministry of External Affairs for two years presents a near-term headwind and reputational challenge.

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• India’s rubber output in April–July up 4.4% year-on-year.  
• Imports fall 7.4% as stocks deplete by 79,000 tons in 4 months  
• Domestic auto sector weakness tempers consumption

• GST removal on life and health insurance eliminates insurers’ input tax credit, forcing them to cut agent-commissions, severely hurting Policybazaar (POLICYBZ IN) , whose 68% revenue depends on these segments.
• PB Fintech could have faced revenue losses upto 4.4% and 65.7% Adj. EBITDA hit if it fully absorbs GST; even 50% absorption cuts Adj.EBITDA by ~35%, based on FY25 numbers.
• Moreover, trail revenues, mainly from health insurance, could shrink sharply, threatening PB Fintech’s high-margin revenue stream and delaying its INR 10 bn profit target beyond FY27.

• HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) is scheduled to report its FY 2026 Q2 results on Saturday, 18 October 2025.
• Highlight: Consensus sees EPS near INR 11.3 and revenue around INR 437 Bn; options imply a ±2.3% move, above the historical ±1.7% average.
• Portfolio Impact: As the largest constituent of the Nifty 50 and BSE Sensex, HDFC’s earnings will be closely watched and could set the tone for the broader market.

• The NIFTY Index has been stuck in the 25k price zone since May 2025. The index is going nowhere.
• Our quantitative model indicates a 62.5% probability of reversal next week, if the index closes around 25300 (if the close is positive).
• If the index closes this week down, a pullback may be under way, entry zones details are discussed in detail in the insight.

• Company marks explosive profitability in Q2 FY26 as revenue surged 22%, translating to an 82% EPS growth and strong 34.8% EBITDA margins.
• Volume grew 21% supported by a 20% franchise jump. Radiology margin improved by 800bp, signaling a turnaround.
• Company maximizes shareholder reward by declaring a massive 2:1 Bonus Share issuance and a generous Rs. 7 Interim Dividend, underscoring confidence.

• Rubicon Research Limited (1453591D IN) raised about US$155m in its India IPO.
• Rubicon Research has shown strong FY25–1Q26 growth, driven by expanding product launches, ANDA approvals, and higher US market penetration, while margins improved with operating leverage and lower R&D intensity.
• In this note, we will talk about the trading dynamics.

• IndiGo’s Q2FY26 performance is expected to disappoint, with higher fuel prices, weak demand, and rupee depreciation sharply eroding margins and reversing the profitability momentum of recent quarters.
• Cost pressures are intensifying while yields weaken amid overcapacity and strong competition. The company’s cost advantage is narrowing, raising concerns about margin sustainability and near-term earnings visibility.
• With rising costs, currency headwinds, and pricing pressure, IndiGo’s profitability outlook appears challenging. Short-term recovery looks uncertain despite its strong balance sheet and scale advantages.

• Tenneco Clean Air India Ltd (1880671D IN) is looking to raise about US$350m in its upcoming India IPO.
• Tenneco Clean Air India (TCAIL) designs and manufactures clean air, powertrain, and suspension solutions for Indian OEMs, export markets, and the aftermarket, serving PVs, CVs, OHs, and industrial applications.
• In this note, we look at the company’s past performance.

• Elevate Campuses Limited (1638929D IN) is looking to raise about US$287m in its upcoming India IPO. The deal will be run by JM Fin, MS and IIFL.
• Elevate Campuses Limited (ECL) owns, operates and manages on-campus student accommodation across Higher Education Institutions and owns K-12 (Kindergarten-to-12th grade) assets, operating under ‘Good Host Spaces’ and ‘ScholarZ’ brands.  
• As of Aug 31, 2025, ECL was the largest institutionalized and independent education platform in India, based on student capacity, as per the CBRE Report.

• Tata Consultancy Services has announced a bold USD 6–7 billion investment to build a 1 GW sovereign AI data center network across India, its most capital-intensive project to date.
• This move shifts TCS from labor-based IT services to AI-driven infrastructure, aligning it with global compute leaders and advancing India’s AI and data-sovereignty goals.
• TCS’s initiative could reshape India’s digital backbone, driving investment across allied sectors and marking a long-term re-rating opportunity for Indian tech toward infrastructure-led growth.

• ICICI Bank (ICICIBC IN / IBN US) is scheduled to report its Q2 results on Saturday, 18 October 2025.
• Highlight: In recent years, the bank has consistently beat analysts’ expectations and often posted a positive performance post-earnings.
• Portfolio Impact: As a Nifty 50 and BSE Sensex heavyweight, earnings-day moves ripple across the benchmark, making results market-relevant beyond the single stock.

• Elecon Engineering announced a INR 400 crore CapEx plan in its Gear division, signaling aggressive expansion and confidence in long-term industrial and defence demand.
• The investment strengthens Elecon’s position as India’s only defence-grade gearbox manufacturer while unlocking efficiency gains and higher capacity for its global export ambitions.
• The CapEx-driven scale-up and MHE turnaround improve Elecon’s visibility as a structural growth play, transitioning it from a domestic leader to a global engineering contender.